• Title/Summary/Keyword: 모델기반 설계

Search Result 4,477, Processing Time 0.042 seconds

A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.23 no.4
    • /
    • pp.147-168
    • /
    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Modeling and Intelligent Control for Activated Sludge Process (활성슬러지 공정을 위한 모델링과 지능제어의 적용)

  • Cheon, Seong-pyo;Kim, Bongchul;Kim, Sungshin;Kim, Chang-Won;Kim, Sanghyun;Woo, Hae-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
    • /
    • v.22 no.10
    • /
    • pp.1905-1919
    • /
    • 2000
  • The main motivation of this research is to develop an intelligent control strategy for Activated Sludge Process (ASP). ASP is a complex and nonlinear dynamic system because of the characteristic of wastewater, the change in influent flow rate, weather conditions, and etc. The mathematical model of ASP also includes uncertainties which are ignored or not considered by process engineer or controller designer. The ASP is generally controlled by a PID controller that consists of fixed proportional, integral, and derivative gain values. The PID gains are adjusted by the expert who has much experience in the ASP. The ASP model based on $Matlab^{(R)}5.3/Simulink^{(R)}3.0$ is developed in this paper. The performance of the model is tested by IWA(International Water Association) and COST(European Cooperation in the field of Scientific and Technical Research) data that include steady-state results during 14 days. The advantage of the developed model is that the user can easily modify or change the controller by the help of the graphical user interface. The ASP model as a typical nonlinear system can be used to simulate and test the proposed controller for an educational purpose. Various control methods are applied to the ASP model and the control results are compared to apply the proposed intelligent control strategy to a real ASP. Three control methods are designed and tested: conventional PID controller, fuzzy logic control approach to modify setpoints, and fuzzy-PID control method. The proposed setpoints changer based on the fuzzy logic shows a better performance and robustness under disturbances. The objective function can be defined and included in the proposed control strategy to improve the effluent water quality and to reduce the operating cost in a real ASP.

  • PDF

A Study on the Design of Sustainable App Services for Medication Management and Disposal of Waste Drugs (약 복용 관리와 폐의약품 처리를 위한 지속 가능한 앱 서비스 디자인 연구)

  • Lee, Ri-Na;Hwang, Jeong-Un;Shin, Ji-Yoon;Hwang, Jin-Do
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
    • /
    • v.14 no.2
    • /
    • pp.48-68
    • /
    • 2024
  • Due to the global pandemic aftermath of the coronavirus, the importance of health care is being emphasized more socially. Due to the influence of these changes, domestic pharmaceutical companies have introduced regular drug delivery services, that is, drug and health functional food subscription services. Currently, this market is continuously growing. However, these regular services are causing new environmental problems in which the number of waste drugs increases due to the presence of unused drugs. Therefore, this study proposes a service that not only promotes health management through regular medication adherence to reduce the amount of pharmaceutical waste but also aims to improve awareness and practices regarding proper medication disposal. As a preliminary survey for service design, a preliminary survey was conducted on 51 adults to confirm their perception of drug use habits and waste drug collection. Based on the Honey Comb model, a guideline for service design was created, and a prototype was produced by specifying the service using the preliminary survey results and service design methodology. In order to verify the effectiveness of the prototype, a first user task survey was conducted to identify the problems of the prototype, and after improving this, a second usability test was conducted on 49 adults to confirm the versatility of the service. Usability verification was conducted using SPSS Mac version 29.0. For the evaluation results of the questionnaire, Spearmann Correlation Analysis was conducted to confirm the relationship between frequency analysis and evaluation items. This study presents specific solutions to the problem of waste drugs due to the spread of drug subscription services.

An Analysis of Inscription Trends of UNESCO World Heritage Cultural Landscapes (유네스코 세계유산 문화경관 등재 경향 분석)

  • Lee, Jaei;Sung, Jong-Sang
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
    • /
    • v.52 no.4
    • /
    • pp.18-31
    • /
    • 2024
  • This study examines the inscription trends and characteristics of 121 cultural landscapes inscribed on the UNESCO World Heritage List to gain a comprehensive understanding of their inherent values and attributes. By employing a dual methodology involving descriptive statistical analysis and in-depth case studies, this research investigates the geographical distribution, temporal inscription patterns, selection criteria, and typologies of these landscapes. The data for this study were collected from official documents and databases available on the UNESCO World Heritage Center website, ensuring the reliability and authenticity of the information. The analysis reveals that cultural landscapes are predominantly concentrated in Europe and Asia, with a steady increase in inscriptions since 1992. These landscapes are primarily recognized for their uniqueness in reflecting human-nature interactions, as well as the importance of traditional culture and land-use practices, resulting in their inscription mainly under criteria (iv), (iii), (v), and (ii). Furthermore, cultural landscapes can be broadly categorized into three types: designed landscapes, organically evolved landscapes, and associative landscapes. Among these, organically evolved landscapes, formed through long-term interactions between human activities such as agriculture and industry and the natural environment, constitute a significant proportion. These findings suggest that UNESCO World Heritage cultural landscapes possess a complex value system encompassing nature and culture, tangible and intangible elements, and material and non-material aspects. This necessitates a fundamental shift in the perception and preservation approaches to cultural heritage, requiring an integrated approach that emphasizes the overall context rather than individual elements and focuses on the dynamic process of landscape evolution itself. Moreover, cultural landscapes have the potential to contribute to sustainable development models by fostering regional identity, strengthening community resilience, and promoting sustainable economic growth. Therefore, the preservation and management of cultural landscapes require a perspective that holistically views the dynamic evolution process of the landscape and a governance system based on the active participation of local communities and stakeholders. This study contributes to enhancing the in-depth understanding of the characteristics and values of cultural landscapes and provides a foundation for the selection and management of future cultural landscape heritage sites.

Site Characterization using Shear-Wave Velocities Inverted from Rayleigh-Wave Dispersion in Chuncheon, Korea (레일리파 분산을 역산하여 구한 횡파속도를 이용한 춘천시의 부지특성)

  • Jung, JinHoon;Kim, Ki Young
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
    • /
    • v.17 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-10
    • /
    • 2014
  • To reveal and classify site characteristics in densely populated areas in Chuncheon, Korea, Rayleigh-waves were recorded at 50 sites including four sites in the forest area using four 1-Hz velocity sensors and 24 4.5-Hz vertical geophones during the period of January 2011 to May 2013. Dispersion curves of the Rayleigh waves obtained by the extended spatial autocorrelation method were inverted to derive shear-wave velocity ($v_s$) models comprising 40 horizontal layers of 1-m thickness. Depths to weathered rocks ($D_b$), shear wave velocities of these basement rocks ($v_s^b$), average velocities of the overburden layer ($\bar{v}_s^s$), and the average velocity to a depth of 30 m ($v_s30$), were then derived from those models. The estimated values of $D_b$, $v_s^b$, $\bar{v}_s^s$, and $v_s30$ for 46 sites at lower altitudes were in the ranges of 5 to 29 m, 404 to 561 m/s, 208 to 375 ms/s, and 226 to 583 m/s, respectively. According to the Korean building code for seismic design, the estimated $v_s30$ indicates that the lower altitude areas in Chuncheon are classified as $S_C$ (very dense soil and soft rock) or $S_D$ (stiff soil). To determine adequate proxies for $v_s30$, we compared the computed values with land cover, lithology, topographic slope, and surface elevation at each of the measurement sites. Due to a weak correlation (r = 0.41) between $v_s30$ and elevation, the best proxy of them, applications of this proxy to Chuncheon of a relatively small area seem to be limited.

Evaluation of Disaster Resilience Scorecard for the UN International Safety City Certification of Incheon Metropolitan City (인천시 UN 국제안전도시 인증을 위한 재난 복원력 스코어카드 평가)

  • Kim, Yong-Moon;Lee, Tae-Shik
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
    • /
    • v.13 no.1
    • /
    • pp.59-75
    • /
    • 2020
  • This study is a case study that applied 'UNDRR's Urban Disaster Resilience Scorecard', an evaluation tool necessary for Incheon Metropolitan City to be certified as an international safe city. I would like to present an example that the results derived from this scorecard contributed to the Incheon Metropolitan City Disaster Reduction Plan. Of course, the Disaster Resilience Scorecard can't provide a way to improve the resilience of every disaster facing the city. However, it is to find the weakness of the resilience that the city faces, and to propose a solution to reduce the city's disaster risk. This is to help practitioners to recognize the disaster risks that Incheon Metropolitan City faces. In addition, the solution recommended by UNDRR was suggested to provide resilience in areas vulnerable to disasters. It was confirmed that this process can contribute to improving the disaster resilience of Incheon Metropolitan City. UNDRR has been spreading 'Climate Change, Disaster-resistant City Creation Campaign', aka MCR (Making Cities Resilient) Campaign, to cities all over the world since 2010 to reduce global cities' disasters. By applying the disaster relief guidelines adopted by UNDRR, governments, local governments, and neighboring cities are encouraged to collaborate. As a result of this study, Incheon Metropolitan city's UN Urban Resilience Scorecard was evaluated as a strong resilience field by obtaining scores of 4 or more (4.3~5.0) in 5 of 10 essentials; 1. Prepare organization for disaster resilience and prepare for implementation, 4. Strong resilience Urban development and design pursuit, 5. Preservation of natural cushions to enhance the protection provided by natural ecosystems, 9. Ensure effective disaster preparedness and response, 10. Rapid restoration and better reconstruction. On the other hand, in the other five fields, scores of less than 4 (3.20~3.85) were obtained and evaluated as weak resilience field; 2. Analyze, understand and utilize current and future risk scenarios, 3. Strengthen financial capacity for resilience, 6. Strengthen institutional capacity for resilience, 7. Understanding and strengthening social competence for resilience, 8. Strengthen resilience of infrastructure. In addition, through this study, the risk factors faced by Incheon Metropolitan City could be identified by priority, resilience improvement measures to minimize disaster risks, urban safety-based urban development plans, available disaster reduction resources, and integrated disasters. Measures were prepared.

A Study about the Perception of Scientifically Gifted Students Regarding a Program for Gifted, Based on Autonomous Learner Model (자율학습자 모형에 기반한 영재교육 프로그램에 대한 과학영재 학생들의 인식 연구)

  • Choe, Seung-Urn;Kim, Eun-Sook;Chun, Mi-Ran;Yu, Hee-Won
    • Journal of Gifted/Talented Education
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.575-596
    • /
    • 2012
  • Students' perception on a science program for gifted was investigated. The whole program was designed in consistency and integrity based on the Autonomous Learner Model suggested by Betts & Kercher(1999). 7th, 8th and 9th grade students were enrolled in this program, offered by G Education Institute for Gifted(GEI) located in Seoul. A survey was done to ask students' perception regarding the effect of the program. The survey consisted of statements about the expected effects of the program and students were asked if they agreed with the statements. Most students strongly agreed that GEI's program has positive effects. Students replied that they learned useful and interesting science contents, enjoyed meaningful experience of cooperating with members in small groups, and were challenged by the inquiry tasks. They recognized that they were being trained to become autonomous learners. They also said that their choices and decisions were respected, which resulted in positive effects on their ability to negotiate or to inquire actively. These implies that Autonomous Learner Model had been successfully applied. Although it was not clear autonomy of students was fully grown, the possibility of becoming an autonomous learner was evident. Satisfaction level is higher for the older students, implying that the integrity in the program gave accumulating effect. Students response showed that three sub-programs of GEI, the classes of each subject, conference at the end of the year and autonomous learner training played equally important role for students to learn the process of scientific inquiry and autonomous learning. This was a positive sign that the strategies for scientific inquiry and autonomous learning were embedded and integrated deeply in the program. The results of current research suggests that the integrity of a program based on a specific education model for the gifted could provide better education environment for the gifted students.

Design and Implementation of Quality Broker Architecture to Web Service Selection based on Autonomic Feedback (자율적 피드백 기반 웹 서비스 선정을 위한 품질 브로커 아키텍처의 설계 및 구현)

  • Seo, Young-Jun;Song, Young-Jae
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
    • /
    • v.15D no.2
    • /
    • pp.223-234
    • /
    • 2008
  • Recently the web service area provides the efficient integrated environment of the internal and external of corporation and enterprise that wants the introduction of it is increasing. Also the web service develops and the new business model appears, the domestic enterprise environment and e-business environment are changing caused by web service. The web service which provides the similar function increases, most the method which searches the suitable service in demand of the user is more considered seriously. When it needs to choose one among the similar web services, service consumer generally needs quality information of web service. The problem, however, is that the advertised QoS information of a web service is not always trustworthy. A service provider may publish inaccurate QoS information to attract more customers, or the published QoS information may be out of date. Allowing current customers to rate the QoS they receive from a web service, and making these ratings public, can provide new customers with valuable information on how to rank services. This paper suggests the agent-based quality broker architecture which helps to find a service providing the optimum quality that the consumer needs in a position of service consumer. It is able to solve problem which modify quality requirements of the consumer from providing the architecture it selects a web service to consumer dynamically. Namely, the consumer is able to search the service which provides the optimal quality criteria through UDDI browser which is connected in quality broker server. To quality criteria value decision of each service the user intervention is excluded the maximum. In the existing selection architecture, the objective evaluation was difficult in subjective class of service selecting of the consumer. But the proposal architecture is able to secure an objectivity with the quality criteria value decision where the agent monitors binding information in consumer location. Namely, it solves QoS information of service which provider does not provide with QoS information sharing which is caused by with feedback of consumer side agents.

RAUT: An end-to-end tool for automated parsing and uploading river cross-sectional survey in AutoCAD format to river information system for supporting HEC-RAS operation (하천정비기본계획 CAD 형식 단면 측량자료 자동 추출 및 하천공간 데이터베이스 업로딩과 HEC-RAS 지원을 위한 RAUT 툴 개발)

  • Kim, Kyungdong;Kim, Dongsu;You, Hojun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.54 no.12
    • /
    • pp.1339-1348
    • /
    • 2021
  • In accordance with the River Law, the basic river maintenance plan is established every 5-10 years with a considerable national budget for domestic rivers, and various river surveys such as the river section required for HEC-RAS simulation for flood level calculation are being conducted. However, river survey data are provided only in the form of a pdf report to the River Management Geographic Information System (RIMGIS), and the original data are distributedly owned by designers who performed the river maintenance plan in CAD format. It is a situation that the usability for other purposes is considerably lowered. In addition, when using surveyed CAD-type cross-sectional data for HEC-RAS, tools such as 'Dream' are used, but the reality is that time and cost are almost as close as manual work. In this study, RAUT (River Information Auto Upload Tool), a tool that can solve these problems, was developed. First, the RAUT tool attempted to automate the complicated steps of manually inputting CAD survey data and simulating the input data of the HEC-RAS one-dimensional model used in establishing the basic river plan in practice. Second, it is possible to directly read CAD survey data, which is river spatial information, and automatically upload it to the river spatial information DB based on the standard data model (ArcRiver), enabling the management of river survey data in the river maintenance plan at the national level. In other words, if RIMGIS uses a tool such as RAUT, it will be able to systematically manage national river survey data such as river section. The developed RAUT reads the river spatial information CAD data of the river maintenance master plan targeting the Jeju-do agar basin, builds it into a mySQL-based spatial DB, and automatically generates topographic data for HEC-RAS one-dimensional simulation from the built DB. A pilot process was implemented.

Utilization of Smart Farms in Open-field Agriculture Based on Digital Twin (디지털 트윈 기반 노지스마트팜 활용방안)

  • Kim, Sukgu
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
    • /
    • 2023.04a
    • /
    • pp.7-7
    • /
    • 2023
  • Currently, the main technologies of various fourth industries are big data, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, blockchain, mixed reality (MR), and drones. In particular, "digital twin," which has recently become a global technological trend, is a concept of a virtual model that is expressed equally in physical objects and computers. By creating and simulating a Digital twin of software-virtualized assets instead of real physical assets, accurate information about the characteristics of real farming (current state, agricultural productivity, agricultural work scenarios, etc.) can be obtained. This study aims to streamline agricultural work through automatic water management, remote growth forecasting, drone control, and pest forecasting through the operation of an integrated control system by constructing digital twin data on the main production area of the nojinot industry and designing and building a smart farm complex. In addition, it aims to distribute digital environmental control agriculture in Korea that can reduce labor and improve crop productivity by minimizing environmental load through the use of appropriate amounts of fertilizers and pesticides through big data analysis. These open-field agricultural technologies can reduce labor through digital farming and cultivation management, optimize water use and prevent soil pollution in preparation for climate change, and quantitative growth management of open-field crops by securing digital data for the national cultivation environment. It is also a way to directly implement carbon-neutral RED++ activities by improving agricultural productivity. The analysis and prediction of growth status through the acquisition of the acquired high-precision and high-definition image-based crop growth data are very effective in digital farming work management. The Southern Crop Department of the National Institute of Food Science conducted research and development on various types of open-field agricultural smart farms such as underground point and underground drainage. In particular, from this year, commercialization is underway in earnest through the establishment of smart farm facilities and technology distribution for agricultural technology complexes across the country. In this study, we would like to describe the case of establishing the agricultural field that combines digital twin technology and open-field agricultural smart farm technology and future utilization plans.

  • PDF