• Title/Summary/Keyword: 매출 예측 시스템

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Generating Firm's Performance Indicators by Applying PCA (PCA를 활용한 기업실적 예측변수 생성)

  • Lee, Joonhyuck;Kim, Gabjo;Park, Sangsung;Jang, Dongsik
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.191-196
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    • 2015
  • There have been many studies on statistical forecasting on firm's performance and stock price by applying various financial indicators such as debt ratio and sales growth rate. Selecting predictors for constructing a prediction model among the various financial indicators is very important for precise prediction. Most of the previous studies applied variable selection algorithms for selecting predictors. However, the variable selection algorithm is considered to be at risk of eliminating certain amount of information from the indicators that were excluded from model construction. Therefore, we propose a firm's performance prediction model which principal component analysis is applied instead of the variable selection algorithm, in order to reduce dimensionality of input variables of the prediction model. In this study, we constructed the proposed prediction model by using financial data of American IT companies to empirically analyze prediction performance of the model.

Development of a Cash Flow Forecasting Model for Housing Construction (공동주택 공사의 현금흐름 예측 모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Joo-Hwan;Kim, Ju-Hyung;Jee, Nam-Yong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.257-265
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    • 2012
  • Many construction companies are simultaneously carrying out numerous projects in the housing construction industry. It is essential to accurately forecast the cash flow of a project through optimal process management and resource input in order to manage funds rationally and enhance the competitiveness of a company. Current cash flow forecasting methods offer lower accuracy due to a large gap between the revenue and expenditure element. Expenditure elements depends on the real-time changing actual cost for work performed. This research survey was conducted on the actual state of construction management of K company to investigate the problems of cash flow forecasting. To achieve this, the work process and construction management system were integrated to improve the cost management system of K company. To accurately forecast the cash flow of a project, revenue and expenditure elements were displayed in the total cash flow forecast window. This research is expected to assist in the implementation of a system of cash flow forecasting on housing construction by excluding negative elements of revenue and expenditure.

Merchant Recommender System using Double DNN (이중 DNN을 이용한 가맹점 추천 시스템 (DoubleDNN))

  • Kalina, Bayartsetseg;Na, KwangTek;Lee, Ju-Hong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.390-393
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    • 2019
  • 은행과 신용카드 업계에 있어, 고객의 다음 신용 카드 사용처(다음 방문 가맹점)를 예측할 수 있다면 고객의 라이프 스타일을 파악 할 수 있으며, 여러 프로모션과 비즈니스 기회를 포착할 수 있어 매출 증대를 꾀할 수 있다. 우리가 제안하는 모델은 고객이 다음에 방문할 가맹점을 예측/추천하는 것을 목표로 한다. 가맹점 방문과 같이 순차적으로 발생하는 이벤트에는 노이즈가 있을 수 있다. 이 노이즈를 제거하기 위해 두 개의 신경망을 이용한 DoubleDNN을 제안한다. 실험은 BC카드사의 데이터분포를 따르는 인공 생성된 신용카드 사용내역 데이터를 이용하였으며, DoubleDNN은 기존의 다른 추천 모델보다 좋은 성능을 보였다.

Improving performance of collaborative recommendation system based on co occurrence (동시출현 빈도에 기반한 협동추천시스템의 성능 향상)

  • Park, Ji-Yeon;Park, Yun-Shim;Yu, Kyeon-Ah
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.333-336
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    • 2000
  • 인터넷이 발전하면서 인터넷을 이용한 여러 서비스들이 급속히 발달하고 있다. 이런 발전에 맞추어 사용자들은 적합한 상품을 선택하는 것이 점점 어려워지고 그에 따라 운영자들은 사용자들의 요구에 맞춰 원하는 상품을 쉽게 찾게 하여 매출을 올리는 노력을 하고 있다. 이런 노력의 일환으로 기존의 사용자 데이터를 바탕으로 사용자의 선호도를 예측하고 사용자의 선호도에 따라 개인에게 적합한 상품을 추천하는 협동적 방식의 추천 시스템이 개발되어 많이 사용되는 추세이다. 본 논문에서는 현재 사용되고 있는 협동추천 시스템의 문제점을 보완할 수 있는 방법을 제시하며 실험을 통해 기존에 비해 성능이 향상되고 있음을 보인다.

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A Study on Disease Prediction of Paralichthys Olivaceus using Deep Learning Technique (딥러닝 기술을 이용한 넙치의 질병 예측 연구)

  • Son, Hyun Seung;Lim, Han Kyu;Choi, Han Suk
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.62-68
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    • 2022
  • To prevent the spread of disease in aquaculture, it is a need for a system to predict fish diseases while monitoring the water quality environment and the status of growing fish in real time. The existing research in predicting fish disease were image processing techniques. Recently, there have been more studies on disease prediction methods through deep learning techniques. This paper introduces the research results on how to predict diseases of Paralichthys Olivaceus with deep learning technology in aquaculture. The method enhances the performance of disease detection rates by including data augmentation and pre-processing in camera images collected from aquaculture. In this method, it is expected that early detection of disease fish will prevent fishery disasters such as mass closure of fish in aquaculture and reduce the damage of the spread of diseases to local aquaculture to prevent the decline in sales.

Evaluation of Corporate Distress Prediction Power using the Discriminant Analysis: The Case of First-Class Hotels in Seoul (판별분석에 의한 기업부실예측력 평가: 서울지역 특1급 호텔 사례 분석)

  • Kim, Si-Joong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.10
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    • pp.520-526
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to develop a distress prediction model, in order to evaluate the distress prediction power for first-class hotels and to calculate the average financial ratio in the Seoul area by using the financial ratios of hotels in 2015. The sample data was collected from 19 first-class hotels in Seoul and the financial ratios extracted from 14 of these 19 hotels. The results show firstly that the seven financial ratios, viz. the current ratio, total borrowings and bonds payable to total assets, interest coverage ratio to operating income, operating income to sales, net income to stockholders' equity, ratio of cash flows from operating activities to sales and total assets turnover, enable the top-level corporations to be discriminated from the failed corporations and, secondly, by using these seven financial ratios, a discriminant function which classifies the corporations into top-level and failed ones is estimated by linear multiple discriminant analysis. The accuracy of prediction of this discriminant capability turned out to be 87.9%. The accuracy of the estimates obtained by discriminant analysis indicates that the distress prediction model's distress prediction power is 78.95%. According to the analysis results, hotel management groups which administrate low level corporations need to focus on the classification of these seven financial ratios. Furthermore, hotel corporations have very different financial structures and failure prediction indicators from other industries. In accordance with this finding, for the development of credit evaluation systems for such hotel corporations, there is a need for systems to be developed that reflect hotel corporations' financial features.

A study on the use of a Business Intelligence system : the role of explanations (비즈니스 인텔리전스 시스템의 활용 방안에 관한 연구: 설명 기능을 중심으로)

  • Kwon, YoungOk
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.155-169
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    • 2014
  • With the rapid advances in technologies, organizations are more likely to depend on information systems in their decision-making processes. Business Intelligence (BI) systems, in particular, have become a mainstay in dealing with complex problems in an organization, partly because a variety of advanced computational methods from statistics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence can be applied to solve business problems such as demand forecasting. In addition to the ability to analyze past and present trends, these predictive analytics capabilities provide huge value to an organization's ability to respond to change in markets, business risks, and customer trends. While the performance effects of BI system use in organization settings have been studied, it has been little discussed on the use of predictive analytics technologies embedded in BI systems for forecasting tasks. Thus, this study aims to find important factors that can help to take advantage of the benefits of advanced technologies of a BI system. More generally, a BI system can be viewed as an advisor, defined as the one that formulates judgments or recommends alternatives and communicates these to the person in the role of the judge, and the information generated by the BI system as advice that a decision maker (judge) can follow. Thus, we refer to the findings from the advice-giving and advice-taking literature, focusing on the role of explanations of the system in users' advice taking. It has been shown that advice discounting could occur when an advisor's reasoning or evidence justifying the advisor's decision is not available. However, the majority of current BI systems merely provide a number, which may influence decision makers in accepting the advice and inferring the quality of advice. We in this study explore the following key factors that can influence users' advice taking within the setting of a BI system: explanations on how the box-office grosses are predicted, types of advisor, i.e., system (data mining technique) or human-based business advice mechanisms such as prediction markets (aggregated human advice) and human advisors (individual human expert advice), users' evaluations of the provided advice, and individual differences in decision-makers. Each subject performs the following four tasks, by going through a series of display screens on the computer. First, given the information of the given movie such as director and genre, the subjects are asked to predict the opening weekend box office of the movie. Second, in light of the information generated by an advisor, the subjects are asked to adjust their original predictions, if they desire to do so. Third, they are asked to evaluate the value of the given information (e.g., perceived usefulness, trust, satisfaction). Lastly, a short survey is conducted to identify individual differences that may affect advice-taking. The results from the experiment show that subjects are more likely to follow system-generated advice than human advice when the advice is provided with an explanation. When the subjects as system users think the information provided by the system is useful, they are also more likely to take the advice. In addition, individual differences affect advice-taking. The subjects with more expertise on advisors or that tend to agree with others adjust their predictions, following the advice. On the other hand, the subjects with more knowledge on movies are less affected by the advice and their final decisions are close to their original predictions. The advances in predictive analytics of a BI system demonstrate a great potential to support increasingly complex business decisions. This study shows how the designs of a BI system can play a role in influencing users' acceptance of the system-generated advice, and the findings provide valuable insights on how to leverage the advanced predictive analytics of the BI system in an organization's forecasting practices.

Mobile Payment and Operation System for the Local Area Festival (지역 기반 문화축제를 위한 모바일 결제 및 운영 시스템)

  • Park, Kiung;Lee, Jae-Won
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.19 no.9
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    • pp.402-410
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    • 2019
  • Local area festivals have grown on a scale for the past 20 years, but have suffered ups and downs. Through the trial and error of the festival operation, problems such as prediction of the number of visitors, planning of event scale, calculation and expansion of sales volume, and management of various participants in the duration were highlighted. To solve, this study designed and developed a mobile payment system and festival operation management system for local scale festivals as a platform operating system of web and app combined. The results of this study presents four basic functions. It includes ticketing management, attendance identification and entrance control, charge of festival currency and use of payments, real-time provision and management of related information, and performance reporting for each role. It was applied to local festivals in practice as to enable local shop owners to participate in advertisements or sponsorships and confirmed their contribution to local commercial market and the revitalization of festivals through this system.

A User based Collaborative Filtering Recommender System with Recommendation Quantity and Repetitive Recommendation Considerations (추천 수량과 재 추천을 고려한 사용자 기반 협업 필터링 추천 시스템)

  • Jihoi Park;Kihwan Nam
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.71-94
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    • 2017
  • Recommender systems reduce information overload and enhance choice quality. This technology is used in many services and industry. Previous studies did not consider recommendation quantity and the repetitive recommendations of an item. This study is the first to examine recommender systems by considering recommendation quantity and repetitive recommendations. Only a limited number of items are displayed in offline stores because of their physical limitations. Determining the type and number of items that will be displayed is an important consideration. In this study, I suggest the use of a user-based recommender system that can recommend the most appropriate items for each store. This model is evaluated by MAE, Precision, Recall, and F1 measure, and shows higher performance than the baseline model. I also suggest a new performance evaluation measure that includes Quantity Precision, Quantity Recall, and Quantity F1 measure. This measure considers the penalty for short or excess recommendation quantity. Novelty is defined as the proportion of items in a recommendation list that consumers may not experience. I evaluate the new revenue creation effect of the suggested model using this novelty measure. Previous research focused on recommendations for customer online, but I expand the recommender system to cover stores offline.

A Spatial Data Mining and Geographical Customer Relationship Management System (공간 데이터마이닝을 이용한 고객 관리시스템)

  • Lee, Sang-Moon;Seo, Jeong-Min
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.121-128
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    • 2010
  • Spatial data mining has been developed to support spatial association knowledge between spatial features or its non-spatial attributes for an application areas. At the present time, a number of researchers attempt to the data mining techniques apply to the several analysis areas, for examples, civil engineering, environmental, agricultural areas. Despite the efforts that, until such time as not existed practical systems for the gCRMDMs. gCRMDMs is merged with very large spatial database and CRM information system. Also, it is discovery the association rule for the predictions of customer's shopping pattern informations in a huge database consisted with spatial and non-spatial dataset. For this goal, gCRMDMs need spatial data mining techniques. But, nowadays, in a most case not exist utilizable model for the gCRMDMs. Therefore, in this paper, we proposed a practical gCRMDMs model to support a customer, store, street, building and geographical suited to the trade area.