• Title/Summary/Keyword: 리스크 프리미엄

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An Improvement of the Approximation of the Ruin Probability in a Risk Process (보험 상품 파산 확률 근사 방법의 개선 연구)

  • Lee, Hye-Sun;Choi, Seung-Kyoung;Lee, Eui-Yong
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.937-942
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, a continuous-time risk process in an insurance business is considered, where the premium rate is constant and the claim process forms a compound Poisson process. We say that a ruin occurs if the surplus of the risk process becomes negative. It is practically impossible to calculate analytically the ruin probability because the theoretical formula of the ruin probability contains the recursive convolutions and infinite sum. Hence, many authors have suggested approximation formulas of the ruin probability. We introduce a new approximation formula of the ruin probability which extends the well-known De Vylder's and exponential approximation formulas. We compare our approximation formula with the existing ones and show numerically that our approximation formula gives closer values to the true ruin probability in most cases.

Fund Flow and Market Risk (펀드플로우와 시장위험)

  • Chung, Hyo-Youn;Park, Jong-Won
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.169-204
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    • 2010
  • This paper examines the dynamic relationship between fund flow and market risk at the aggregate level and explores whether sudden sharp changes in fund flow (fund run) can cause a systemic risk in the Korean financial markets. We use daily and weekly data and regression and VAR analysis. Main results of the paper are as follows: First, in the stock market, a concurrent and a lagged unexpected fund flows have a positive relationship with market volatility. A positive shock in fund flow predicts an increase in stock market volatility. In the bond market, an unexpected fund flow has a negative relationship with the default risk premium, but a positive relationship with the term premium. And an unexpected fund flow of the money market fund has a negative relationship with the liquidy risk, but the explanatory power is very low. Second, for examining whether changes in fund flow induce a systemic risk, we construct a spillover index based on the forecast error variance decomposition of VAR model. A spillover index represents that how much the shock in fund flow can explain the change of market risk in a market. In general, explanatory powers from spillover indexes are so fluctuant and low. In the stock market, the impact of shocks in fund flow on market risk is relatively high and persistent during the period from the end of 2007 to 2008, which is the subprime-mortgage crisis period. In bond market, since the end of 2008, the impact of shocks in fund flow spreads to default risk continually, while in the money market, such a systematic effect doesn't take place. The persistent patterns of spillover effect appearing around a certain period in the stock market and the bond market suggest that the shock to the unexpected fund flow may increase the market risk and can be a cause of systemic risk in the financial markets. However, summarizing the results of regression and VAR model analysis, and considering the very low explanatory power of spillover index analysis, we can conclude that changes in fund flow have a very limited power in explaining changes in market risk and it is not very likely to induce the systemic risk by a fund run in the Korean financial markets.

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Testing the Valuation Effect of Foreign Exchange Risk Insurance in Korea (환헤지가 기업가치를 높이는가? : 환변동보험의 기업가치 효과)

  • Song, Hong-Sun;Hahn, Sang-Buhm
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.63-84
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    • 2010
  • We investigate whether FX hedging materially increases firm value by testing the valuation effect of Foreign Exchange Risk Insurance in Korea, using our sample of 84 listed firms with 617 observations between 2000 and 2008, Employing Tobin's Q as a proxy of firm value and foreign exchange risk insurance as a proxy of hedging instrument, we find a positive relation between firm value and the use of foreign exchange risk insurance. The hedging premium is statistically significant and is on average 7.4% of sample firm value. We also find our empirical results consistent with the preceding evidence that firm uses the hedging instrument in order to alleviate economic frictions and then hedging causes an increase in firm value.

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GDP Linked Bonds and Currency Risk Premiums (GDP 연계채권과 환리스크 프리미엄)

  • Sohn, Kyoung-woo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.379-396
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to study the rational payoff from the standpoint of foreign investors and the government when the government issues GDP-linked bonds to foreign investors. Design/methodology/approach - In this paper, the prices of 12 types of GDP-linked bond structures, which are classified according to the calculation cycle of the rate of change of linked GDP, the currency issued, and whether options are embedded, were evaluated. The Fama-French 3-factor model and the GMM-SDF model are used in the asset pricing model, and domestic and overseas investors used different basis assets. Findings - The KRW premium for US investors is estimated to be 43bp on a quarterly basis and 30bp on an annual basis, respectively, meaning that when the government issues bonds in KRW, the interest rate paid to US investors will be reduced by 30bp to 160bp (annually converted). Using the Fama-French 3 factor model, the KRW premium is the risk premium for the US market beta, meaning that if US investors do not intend to invest in US market beta, it is advantageous to receive an additional interest rate by investing in USD-denominated GDP-linked bonds. Korea's GDP- linked bond give US investors diversified investment utility, so they are willing to incorporate Korean GDP-linked bonds even if -150bp of interest is deducted from the structure issued to Korean investors. And as a result of estimating the value of the option through the GDP-linked bond with options that provides a floor for guaranteeing the principal, the value of the option linked to the annual GDP issued in dollars was the lowest. Research implications or Originality - Issuing dollar-denominated GDP-linked bonds linked to annual GDP with the option of guaranteeing the principal by the government is a way to increase investment opportunities for US investors and achieve financial stability of the government.

A Study on the Technology Evaluation of Development of New Variety of Citrus Unshiu (감귤 신품종(하양조생)개발의 기술가치의 평가)

  • Ko, Seong-Bo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.8
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    • pp.127-132
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    • 2016
  • This study evaluated the economic value of the development of a new variety of Citrus unshiu using the income approach, Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Benefit/Cost (B/C) ratio. The new variety of Citrus unshiu was developed by the national institute of horticultural and herbal science in Korea, rural development administration. The technological evaluation of the development of a new variety of Citrus unshiu can be used to improve the efficiency and practicality of the development of a new variety of citrus. From the research results, the technological value of development of a new variety of Citrus unshui was evaluated at 109,455(discount rate=8%, minimum), 195,040(discount rate=4%, maximum), and 145,375(discount rate=6%, average) million won. The IRR was 51.4%, which was greater than the discount rate(4~8%). The NPV was evaluated at 145.3 billion won(discount rate=6%, average), 195.0 billion won(discount rate=4%, maximum) and 109.4 billion won(discount rate=8%, minimum), all of which were greater than 0. The B/C ratio was evaluated at 60.9(discount rate=6%, average), 81.3(discount rate=4%, maximum) and 46.1(discount rate=8%, minimum), all of which were greater than 1. Therefore, the economic validity of the development of a new variety of Citrus unshiu was identified by this technological evaluation.

Manufacturing process and food safety analysis of sous-vide production for small and medium sized manufacturing companies: Focusing on the Korean HMR market (중소규모 생산업체의 수비드 제품 생산을 위한 공정 및 안전성 분석: 한국 HMR 시장 중심으로)

  • Choi, Eugene;Shin, Weon Sun
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2020
  • The present study identified the restrictions on the use of sous-vide products in the Korean HMR market for small and medium-sized manufacturing companies. A detailed literature review revealed that the HMR market in Korea is close to saturation. Notably, the technologically advanced products produced using sous-vide seem to display significant potential to overcome market saturation. The sous-vide method differs from conventional cooking techniques and is characterized by maintenance of food texture along with flavor enhancement. However, due to the unfamiliarity of the manufacturers with this method and the unclear food safety regulations, mass food manufacturing companies do not agree on using this method; hence, sous-vide production is usually undertaken by small/medium sized companies catering primarily through online marketing portals. This study highlights the various restrictions to the implementation of sous-vide production, and discusses several practical implications of sous-vide production that would help users of this technique enter the HMR market.