• Title/Summary/Keyword: 리스크 정량화

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A Study on National Economic Impact Assessement of Natural Disaster (기상재난의 피해분석 연구)

  • Ryu, Mun-Hyun;Park, Doo-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2010.05a
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    • pp.420-424
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    • 2010
  • 기상재난들은 고도의 경제성장 및 인구증가에 따른 도시화와 공업화가 진행됨에 따라 사회 경제적 파급효과도 점점 커지고 있으며 경제의 불확실성을 크게 증가시켜 국가경제의 안정성을 저해하는 요인이 되고 있다. 그러나 기상재해의 직접피해에 비해 간접피해는 정량화하기 어려워 정성적인 분석에 그치는 경우가 많이 있다. 기상재난에 대한 간접피해를 정량적으로 추정하는 것은 지역공동체나 국가의 취약성을 가늠하게 하며, 재해방지를 위한 투자에 대한 경제적 타당성에 근거가 된다. 재해의 간접피해추정은 불확실한 재난발생에 대해 리스크 관리 측면에서 예상가능한 피해범주의 정보를 제공하며 공공적인 측면에서도 재난에 취약한 계층을 보호하기 위한 국가의 공적자금의 당위성을 제공한다. 본 연구는 가상적인 시나리오를 통해 우리나라의 기상 재난의 국민경제적 간접피해를 추정하기 위한 모형과 결과를 제시하였다.

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Analysis of the Schedule Risk using PROMETHEE in Building Construction Management (건설관리에서의 PROMETHEE기반 공정 리스크 분석)

  • Lee, Jang-Young;Yoon, You-Sang;Jang, Myung-Houn;Suh, Sang-Wook
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2010
  • The building construction projects include a variety of risk factors due to uncertainties. To succeed in the projects, it is important how risks are managed. Risk management is composed of identification, analysis and response. Especially, the risk analysis is important to objectively calculate significance of risk factors. This paper evaluates a method to find priorities of risks using the AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process). The method has some defects; (1) the consistency becomes weak as the number of pair-wise compared risks is large, and (2) the input and output procedures are complex when risks are added to or removed from a risk database. Thus the paper adopts the PROMETHEE(Preference Ranking Organization METHod Enrichment Evaluations) analysis process which is able to overcome the limitation of the AHP restricted to 9 risk factors. The PROMETHEE makes the procedure of risk analysis simple, when the risk factors pull out and put in the risk database. The purpose of this study is to provide process of risk analysis to use the PROMETHEE.

An Exploratory Research on Quantitative Risk Assessment Methodology Throughout Success Factor Analysis in Project Financing (PF 개발사업의 성공요인 분석을 통한 리스크 평가체계 구축을 위한 기초연구)

  • Lee, Dong-Gun;Cha, Hee-Sung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.92-102
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    • 2013
  • A Project Financing (PF) is a form of project delivery system that is carried out for the purpose of trying to give help to the development of national economy and the construction industry in order attract private investment. However, in the case of Korea, many PF projects are only taking into account the aspect of maximizing development benefits, and the proliferation of PF results in project failure. In addition, the interruption of business has been one after another in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis. These major cause is the result of efforts to block the potential risk of objectively quantifying operations. Nowadays, PF risk analysis in terms of various factors is insufficient. The purpose of this study is to identify and quantify the extensive risk elements to classify the cause of affecting the success of the project PF study prior to propose a methodology for evaluating the integrity of the project PF based on this and to provide a quantitative system that can evaluate the business risk. This study identified the factors that affect the PF business success and failure and establish the metrics that can be quantified through existing research and expert interviews. Factors influencing the success of the PF obtained as a result of surveys and interviews in assessing the soundness of the PF development conditions in the future be able to take advantage of, as well as an objective assessment tool to be able to take advantage of the development is expected.

Performance-based Pragmatic Fire Protection Technology by the Control of Fire Triangle at Nuclear Power Plants (화재요인 제어를 통한 원전 성능기반 화재방호 실용화 기술)

  • Jee, Moon-Hak
    • Proceedings of the Korea Institute of Fire Science and Engineering Conference
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    • 2011.11a
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    • pp.248-252
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    • 2011
  • 화재가 지속되기 위해서는 화재 3요소 또는 4요소가 충족되어야 하지만 역으로 한 개 이상의 화재 요소를 제어하거나 통제할 경우 화재를 진압할 수 있다. 원자력발전소에서는 화재방호계획에 의해 방화지역마다 화재 요인인 점화원, 가연성물질, 산소 등 지연성가스를 분석하고 연속적인 연소반응을 억제할 수 있도록 화재위험 요인을 관리하고 있다. 최근에는 정량화된 화재위험 분석도구인 화재모델을 활용한 성능기반 화재방호 기술이 원자력발전소의 화재리스크 관리를 위해 도입되고 있다. 성능기반 화재위험 분석 방법은 일반 산업계에서도 사용되고 있으나 원자력발전소의 경우 화재로 유발될 수 있는 원자로 손상 가능성을 수치화하고 통제하기 위하여 위험도정보 활용기술과 성능기반 기술을 통합하여 사용하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 원자력발전소의 화재요인 관리 방법을 위험도정보 활용기술과 성능기반 화재방호 기술에 의거하여 분석하는 방법을 제시하였다. 이 분석의 목적은 원자력발전소의 화재위험 관리 방법을 산업계의 화재방호 전문가들이 공유하고 산업계의 특화된 방법과 원자력발전소의 전문화된 분석기술을 실용화하여 화재리스크를 효과적으로 관리할 수 있는 방법을 마련하기 위한 것이다.

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A Basic Study for Quantification Model Development of Human Accidents on Construction Site in South Korea (한국 건설현장의 인명사고 리스크 정량화 모델 개발기초 연구)

  • Oh, June-Seok;Lee, Joo-Hyeong;Kim, Tae-Hee;Son, Ki-Young;Son, Seung-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.45-46
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    • 2019
  • Accident rate in domestic construction industry has been increased rapidly in every year. In particular, the rate of death has been shown very high compared with other industries. It means that safety activities performed by government is not effective in reducing the rate of accident. To solve these problems, the risk factors should be predicted in advance, controlled, monitored and managed from start of project to end of project. However, most studies have been conducted by using frequency of occurrence of accident and only listed the importance of risk. Therefore, the objective of this study is to provide basic material to develop risk quantifying model for human accidents on construction site in South Korea. In the future, it is expected to be used as a reference of study on developing safety mangement checklist in construction industry and model for forecasting accident.

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A Basic Study on Quantification Risk Model of Human Accidents on Exterior Construction Site in South Korea (국내 건설현장 내·외부 인명사고 리스크 정량화 모델 개발 기초연구)

  • Oh, Jun-Seok;Ha, Sun-Geun;Kim, Tae-Hee;Jeon, Sang-Sub;Kim, Ji-Myung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2018.11a
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    • pp.132-133
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    • 2018
  • Many studies regarding construction safety management have been conducted. However, it is insufficient to research on external construction site. As a result, ordinary people around the construction site have injured and have a negative view when they think construction industrial since it has regarded having an overfull industrial accidents on media. To break the stereotype and prevention of accident on construction industry have been emphasized at this point in time, it is necessary to establish a comprehensive safety management system which is considered not only internal safety management but also external safety management. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop the human accident risk quantification model by utilizing the third party payout data which occurred by incomplete safety management on external construction site. This study is conducted as a basic study for developing safety management manuals on internal·external construct site. In the future, it is expected to be used as a reference.

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A Basic Study on Quantification Model Development of Human Accidents based on the Insurance Claim Payout of Construction Site (건설공사보험 사례를 활용한 건설현장 인명사고 정량화 모델 개발 기초연구)

  • Ha, Sun-Geun;Kim, Tae-Hui;Kim, Ji-Myong;Jang, Jun-Ho;Son, Ki-Young
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2017.11a
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    • pp.195-196
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    • 2017
  • The number of human accidents in the construction industry is increasing every year, and it constitute the highest percentage among industry. This means that activities performed to prevent safety accidents in the country are not efficient to reduce the rate of accidents in the construction industry. In order to solve this issue, research has been conducted from various perspectives. But, research regarding to quantification model of human accidents is insufficient. the objective of this study is to conduct a basic study on quantification model development of human accidents. To achieve the objective, first, Cause of accident is defined the through literature review. Second, a basic statistic analysis is conducted to determine the characteristics of the accident causes. Third, the analysis is conducted after dividing into four categories : accumulate rate, season, total construction cost, and location. In the future, this study can be used as a reference for developing the safety management checklist for safety management in construction site and development of prediction models of human accident.

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Reliability Estimation of Site Investigation by Geotechnical Risk Analysis in Subway Tunnel (지하철 터널에서의 위험도 분석을 통한 지반조사 신뢰성 평가)

  • 김환준;김우성;김영근;이두화;박진우;김갑부
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Rock Mechanics Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2004
  • 본 연구에서는 도심지 지하철 터널을 대상으로 지반공학적 위험요소가 공사비 및 공기에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 평가하기 위하여 잔여 리스크 개념을 이용하여 조사개소의 증가에 따른 공사비 및 공기의 신뢰도를 분석하였다. 신뢰도 분석결과, 지반조사 개소가 증가함에 따라 공사비 및 공기에 대한 위험도가 축소됨을 확인하였으며, 이러한 결과를 통하여 도심지 지하철 터널에서의 지반공학적 위험도 분석의 유용성을 확인하였다.

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Countermeasure and Security Vulnerability of Fintech Services (핀테크 서비스의 보안 취약점과 대응방안)

  • Park, Jeong-Guk;Kim, In-Jae
    • Korea Information Processing Society Review
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.36-45
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    • 2015
  • 금융과 IT의 융합을 의미하는 핀테크(Fintech) 열풍이 전세계적으로 뜨겁게 불고 있다. 핀테크를 통해 신기술들이 금융 산업 전반에 융합되면서 새로운 형태의 금융서비스가 등장하고 기존의 금융 시스템들이 가져왔던 문제점들을 개선하는데 기여할 것으로 보인다. 하지만 핀테크 산업 활성화를 위한 지속적 규제 완화와 이용자 편의성을 위한 각종 절차의 간소화 그리고 채널 서비스 기술간의 융복합이 일어나는 환경에서 제공되는 핀테크 서비스의 안전성에 대해 우려가 있다. 핀테크 시대에 정보보안은 성장의 인프라이며 금융상품을 선택하는 중요한 기준이 될 것이므로 보안리스크의 정량화와 단계별 통제 방안을 수립하고 사용자 인증, 결제정보 보안, API(Application Programming Interface) 보안 등 필요한 보안요소를 사업모델에 맞게 적용함으로써 편리성과 보안성을 함께 확보할 수 있어야 한다. 본 연구에서는 정보보안 관점에서 핀테크의 서비스의 특징과 보안 취약점을 분석하고 관련 위험을 줄이기 위한 대응방안을 모색해 보았다.

Comparative risk analysis of NATM and TBM for mixed-face large-diameter urban tunneling (도심지 대단면 복합지반 NATM 과 TBM 터널공법의 비교위험도 분석)

  • Kim, Young-Geun;Moon, Joon-Shik;Shim, Jai-Beom;Lee, Seung-Bok;Choi, Chang-Rim;Chun, Youn-Chul
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2011
  • The risk assessment is essential for tunnel design in order to minimize risks associated with uncertainty about geological conditions and tunneling method. This paper provides a comparative risk analysis of a large single bore TBM driven tunnel against sequentially excavated NATM tunnel for a mixed-face large-diameter urban tunnel project near or under a river. The focus of this assessment is on the risks associated with the tunnel excavation methods, in particular whether a TBM or NATM presents more or less risk to achieve the planned excavation duration and bring the project within the estimated bid price. First, the impacts and risks to tunnel construction under each method were discussed, and the risks were scored and ranked in the order of perceived severity and likelihood. Finally, the assessment from a risk based perspective was conducted to decide which alternate tunneling method is more likely to deliver the project with the least time and cost. It is very important to note that this study is only applied to this tunnel project with specific geological conditions and other contract requirements.