• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.76-86
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• 2016

Recently, the Contracts of International Construction Business has been decreased from the beginning of 2015 in Korea, although it has been steadily increased until 2014. This trend could be caused by Low-Price Contracts, the lack of Know-how and experience in operating, the poor management of Claims and Low-Profitability in Business. It has been recognized that the qualitative improvement of Business Contacts are necessary for successful Projects. In the Bidding Process, therefore, Experience data as In-House Data and Lessons Learned for projects should be strategically involved to assure riskless offers. Accordingly the Proposal Process are needed to be organized and enhanced by including processes for risks review about technical, marketing and commercial part during the bidding. This paper proposes a Risk Management Process model during Bidding Phase, using Risk Evaluation Method through the project life-cycle. The Concept of Model is to define CSF (Critical Success Factor) in the bidding process and Risk Factors are linked to CSF and Organization based on RAM (Responsibility assignment matrix).

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.349-357
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• 2016

Recently, the quantity of risk in construction project has been inflated due to the fact that current construction projects have been large and complicated. Therefore, a study on the risk management methods is necessary that can predict and respond to the need in complicated modern construction projects. In this study, the objective is to analyze the cause of accident in actual construction sites and develop a risk assessment model based on insurance claims records. To reach the goal of this study, first, the frequency and severity of accidents are analyzed the causes of accidents based on the classification; progress rate, season, and total construction costs. Second, a risk assessment model is developed by utilizing a multiple regression analysis. The dependent variable is loss ratio of material damage and three categories; natural hazards, geographic information, and construction method & ability, are used as the independent variables. The model's adjusted R-square is 0.455. The contributions of this study will be used as a material for a quantitative risk analysis model development and review of the construction risk factors for future study.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.70-79
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• 2016

The current remodeling cost estimation process is not only dependent on the historical data of new building construction, but it also has a poor linkage with risk-based estimation approach. As such, there is a high risk of falling short of initial budget. To overcome this, a risk-based estimation approach is necessary by providing a probabilistic estimation in consideration of the potential risk factors in conducting the remodeling projects. In addition, the decision-making process should be linked with the risk-based estimation results in stead of intuitive and/or experience-based estimation. This study provides a probabilistic estimation process for residential remodeling projects by developing a detailed methodology in which a step-by-step approach can be achieved. The new proposed estimation approach can help in decision-making for remodeling projects in terms of whether to proceed or not, by effectively reflecting the potential risk factors in the early stage of the project. In addition, the study can enhance the reliability of the estimation results by developing a sustainable estimation process model where a risk-based evaluation can be accomplished by setting up the cost-risk relationship database structure.

• Proceedings of the Materials Research Society of Korea Conference
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• 2011.10a
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• pp.13.2-13.2
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• 2011

뼈의 역학기능을 예측하는 인자(predictive factor) 로서 골밀도(BMD)만으로는 충분하지 않다는 최근의 임상결과는, 골밀도 이외의 새로운 뼈의 강도 및 골절리스크를 지배하는 인자의 중요성을 보여준다. 이와 같은 골역학기능에 대한 골밀도 이외의 부가적인 지배인자를 골질(bone quality)이라고 하는데, 다양한 골질관련인자(bone quality-related factor) 중 하나의 지표로서 뼈의 주성분인 생체아파타이트(BAp)의 결정학적 방향성에 주목, 대표적인 경조직 질환을 해석하였다. 파골세포결손에 의해 대리석증을 유발하는 op/op마우스는 골밀도의 변화뿐만 아니라, 골질의 유의한 변화가 있었다. 즉, 이와 같은 결과는 파골세포결손에 의한 조골세포의 활성저하의 의해 골질이 저하됨을 시사하는 결과이며, 파골세포 과잉의 의해 골다공증을 유발하는 OPG-KO마우스는 골밀도가 급격히 저하됨과 동시에, BAp배향성도 급격히 낮아졌다. 즉, 골대사회전의 상승에 따른 섬유성골(woven bone)의 형성에 의해 BAp의 결정성장이 억제되며, 그 결과 BAp배향성이 저하된다고 사료된다. 이상, 본 연구에서는 대표적인 골 질환조직을 각각의 정상골과 비교함으로써, 골양(BMD)의 변화뿐만 아니라 골질(BAp배향성)의 변화를 발견하였다. 이와 같은 변화는 골질지표로서 BAp배향성이 유효하다는 것을 강하게 시사한다. 따라서 본 연구에 의해 얻어진 견해는 경조직 질환의 병리해명에 적용 가능함과 동시에, 경조직 질환의 진단 응용이나 치료약 개발, 임플란트 개발 등 폭넓은 분야에 유용하다고 할 수 있다.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.90-98
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• 2016

High-rise buildings construction project have various risk factors. Major risk factors are negative results such as time delay and increase of costs. Therefore, this study was analyzed risk factors in construction stages of high-rise buildings using by PROMETHEE technique. For this, this research were identified risk factors through experts Focus Group Interview(FGI). And, PROMETHEE was used to setup evaluation standard for analysis of high-rise building construction risks. Next, the standard of evaluation index calculation was composed by using the definition level in PDRI. Preference function and evaluation index were identified through questionnaires. Through these processes, this study has calculated the importance of high-rise building construction risks using by PROMETHEE technique. As a result, high degree risk factors were as following. These are 'Operation plan of material lifting', 'Outrigger & Belt Truss Construction', 'Foundation work plan of high-rise building' and 'Considering a Structure concept of high-rise building'.

• The Journal of the Korean life insurance medical association
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• v.25
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• pp.103-118
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• 2006

근래에 한국의 생명보험 시장에는 주요 질병의 보장을 위한 상품들이 연일 쏟아져 나오고 있다. 그러나 이와 함께 증가될 수 있는 리스크에 대한 대비는 상대적으로 부족한 실정이다. 특히 간질환에 의한 급부발생이 타질환에 비하여 현격하게 높은 국내 실정에 맞게 언더라이팅 초점이 맞추어져야 할 필요가 있다. 간질환 유발인자로 대표적인 것은 B형 간염이지만, 과다한 알코올 섭취에 의한 간질환 역시 매해 빠른 속도로 증가하는 추세이다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 알코올에 의한 질환의 종류와 이와 관련된 보험금 청구 통계, 그리고 음주로 인한 교통사고의 폐해에 대해 살펴보고, 알코올 남용자를 사전에 판별할 방법을 찾아보고자 한다. 일반적으로 알려져 있는 알코올 관련 질환으로는 지방간, 알코올성 간염, 알코올성 간경변이 있으며, 이로 인한 급부발생율은 급격히 증가하고 있다. 음주로 인한 폐해는 단순히 간질환에 그치지 않고 있으며, 교통사고의 상당수가 음주와 관련이 되어있다. 이러한 리스크에 대해 국내의 상당수 보험사들은 혈액검사를 통하여 간기능에 대한 기준을 설정하여 언더라이팅을 하고 있다. 현재 주로 시행되고 있는 간기능 검사들에 대한 정확도에 대해서는 논란이 있을 수 있다. 따라서 보다 정밀한 검사법들에 대한 연구가 필요할 것이다. 외국의 경우, 보험을 가입하고자 하는 보험 대상자들은 직업이나 흡연, 위험 취미뿐만 아니라 알코올과 관련된 일정한 양식의 질문표에 대하여 성실하게 고지하도록 하고 있다. 국내에도 알코올과 관련된 자세한 고지항목을 첨부하여, 일정 기준에 미치지 못하는 가입자에 대하여 표준미달체로 분류하여 보다 정밀한 검진을 통해 세밀한 언더라이팅이 이루어져야 하겠다. 이와 아울러, 알코올로 인한 사회적 폐해의 심각성에 대한 인식 확대를 위한 각 보험사 및 유관기관의 노력이 전개된다면, 음주에 대한 진사 절차가 수월해질 것으로 기대된다.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.92-102
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• 2013

A Project Financing (PF) is a form of project delivery system that is carried out for the purpose of trying to give help to the development of national economy and the construction industry in order attract private investment. However, in the case of Korea, many PF projects are only taking into account the aspect of maximizing development benefits, and the proliferation of PF results in project failure. In addition, the interruption of business has been one after another in the aftermath of the recent financial crisis. These major cause is the result of efforts to block the potential risk of objectively quantifying operations. Nowadays, PF risk analysis in terms of various factors is insufficient. The purpose of this study is to identify and quantify the extensive risk elements to classify the cause of affecting the success of the project PF study prior to propose a methodology for evaluating the integrity of the project PF based on this and to provide a quantitative system that can evaluate the business risk. This study identified the factors that affect the PF business success and failure and establish the metrics that can be quantified through existing research and expert interviews. Factors influencing the success of the PF obtained as a result of surveys and interviews in assessing the soundness of the PF development conditions in the future be able to take advantage of, as well as an objective assessment tool to be able to take advantage of the development is expected.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.127-134
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• 2008

Potential economic impact of a hypothetical severe accident at a nuclear power plant(Uljin units 3/4) was estimated by applying the Delphi method, which is based on the expert judgements and opinions, in the process of quantifying uncertain factors. For the purpose of this study, it is assumed that the radioactive plume directs the inland direction. Since the economic risk can be divided into direct costs and indirect effects and more uncertainties are involved in the latter, the direct costs were estimated first and the indirect effects were then estimated by applying a weighting factor to the direct cost. The Delphi method however subjects to risk of distortion or discrimination of variables because of the human behavior pattern. A mathematical approach based on the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. For this task, a model for data processing was developed. One-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis was applied to get a distribution of values of the weighting factor. The mean and median values of the weighting factor for the indirect effects appeared to be 2.59 and 2.08, respectively. These values are higher than the value suggested by OECD/NEA, 1.25. Some factors such as small territory and public attitude sensitive to radiation could affect the judgement of panel. Then the parameters of the model for estimating the direct costs were classified as U- and V-types, and two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis was applied to quantify the overall economic risk. The resulting median of the overall economic risk was about 3.9% of the gross domestic products(GDP) of Korea in 2006. When the cost of electricity loss, the highest direct cost, was not taken into account, the overall economic risk was reduced to 2.2% of GDP. This assessment can be used as a reference for justifying the radiological emergency planning and preparedness.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.354-354
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• 2023

최근 기후변화로 인해 전 지구적인 기후 특성이 변화하고 있으며, 기후 특성의 변화는 수문순환에도 큰 영향을 미친다. IPCC (Intergorvernmental Panel on Climate Change) 6차 기후변화 평가 보고서(2022)에 의하면 AR5 (Assessment Report 5)와 비교해 AR6 (Assessment Report 6)에서는 높은 신뢰도로 기후변화 영향의 범위 및 규모는 보다 확대되었으며, 단기적인 리스크로 극한기후 현상의 빈도와 강도 및 기간이 증가할 것으로 예측하였다. 또한, 중장기적인 리스크로 하천 유량의 규모와 관련한 극한 현상의 변화에 따라 수자원 관리 측면에서 어려움을 겪을 것으로 전망하였다. 위와 같은 기후변화에 대응하기 위해 국내에서는 기후변화와 관련된 다양한 연구가 진행되고 있다. 국내 기후변화 관련 연구로는 ArcSWAT 모형을 활용한 RCP4.5, RCP8.5 시나리오 기반 미래 유출량 추정에 관한 연구와, SWAT, IHACRES, GR4J 모형을 이용한 용담댐 유역의 미래기간 유출량 변화 모의, SWAT과 VIC 모형을 활용한 미래 저유량 예측 시 관측 자료와 비교해 모형이 가지는 불확실성 평가 등 기후변화 영향을 평가 및 예측하기 위한 연구는 활발히 진행 중이다. 하지만, 최근 연구의 주요 동향은 유출 모형을 활용한 미래 유출량 모의에 초점이 맞추어져 있으며, 관측 자료를 통한 기후변화 평가 연구는 부족한 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 한반도 5대 수계(한강, 금강, 낙동강, 영산강, 섬진강) 유량 관측소의 실측 유량을 활용해 과거기간의 기후변화에 따른 유출특성의 변화와, 미래기후변화 시나리오 자료를 활용한 미래기간 유출특성의 변화를 분석하였다. 분석 인자로 연 유출량, 1일 최대 유출량, 상위 90%에 해당하는 유출량, 하위 10%에 해당하는 유출량 등을 연도별로 분석하였다. 분석 결과 연도별 총 유출량의 큰 변화는 없지만, 홍수 기간의 첨두유량이 증가하는 동시에 갈수 기간 또한 빈도와 규모가 증가하는 양극화 현상이 진행되고 있음을 확인하였다.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.35-44
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• 2016

Various risk factors are known to be the nature of construction project execution process. These factors lead to potential claims, dispute mediation, arbitration, and litigation which can result in huge loss of money and time. Therefore, it is necessary for construction companies in Korea to improve overall project management capability through the evaluation before entering into the overseas construction market. Also, after examination of the claim and dispute caused by construction project risks, a substantial degree of influence and active preparation for the claim and dispute management should be confirmed via the effect analysis of the each factors. Main claim causes were derived through claim and dispute cases involved with domestic construction projects. As a prediction result of the main claim, 16.1% of the construction change claim, 5.7% of the bad faith claim and 2.7% for the construction delay claim were found to be the portion of the total construction cost. As a result of this analysis, risk management methodology was suggested to improve a project management capability for domestic construction companies through analysis result of the main factors of construction claims.