• Title/Summary/Keyword: 리스크 예측

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Estimation of Resilient River Water Use Criteria Using Margin of Safety(MOS) (안전율(MOS) 개념을 고려한 탄력적 하천수 사용허가 기준유량 산정)

  • Ryoo, Kyong Sik;Park, Jung Eun;Lim, Kwang Suop
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.359-359
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    • 2017
  • 하천관리청은 유량변동이 큰 환경에서도 평상시 하천의 기능을 유지하고 안정적인 용수공급이 이루어지도록 하천수 허가관리를 수행하고 있다. 이때, 하천수 사용허가 검토시 기준으로 사용되는 유량은 자연상태의 기준갈수량에서 하천유지유량을 감안하여 적용하고 있는데, 이는 하천유량의 변동에도 최대 용수수요를 만족할 수 있게끔 관리하기 위한 것으로 최대 사용량일 때의 물의 과부족을 계산하여 허가 여부를 결정한다. 본 연구에서는 Park et al.(2016)이 제안한 시기별(홍수기/이수기, 비관개기/관개기 고려) 하천수 사용허가 기준유량 설정방법을 기반으로, 수질오염총량제(Total Maximum Daily Loads, TMDLs)에서 적용하는 안전율(Margin of Safety, MOS)의 개념을 접목하여 허가기준유량의 불확실성을 정량적으로 고려할 수 있는 방법을 제시하였다. 허가기준 유량은 수문모델에 의해 자연상태의 모의유량을 유황분석하여 도출하게 되므로 유량의 연도별 변도성(Margin of Variability, MOV)과 예측모델 매개변수의 불확실성(Margin of Uncertainty, MOU)을 고려하는 Walker Jr.(2003)의 안전율 산정방법을 적용하였다. 본 연구에서는 금호강 유역을 대상으로 시기별 자연유량 산정시 고려한 SWAT 모형결과를 기반으로 하였으며, 모의자료의 변이계수를 산정하여 시간적 변동성에 의한 불확실성을 도출하고 SWAT-CUP모형을 활용하여 모형의 불확실성을 도출하여 안전율을 계산하였다. 단, 기준갈수량이 허가기준유량으로 사용되는 기간(1월 1일~3월 31일)에는 안전율까지 고려할 경우 지나치게 보수적이라고 판단되어 적용에서 제외하였다. 본 연구에서 제안된 불확실성을 고려한 하천수 관리방법론은 시기별 하천수 허가기준유량 설정에 대한 의사결정자들의 판단을 지원하는데 기여함으로써 정책적 활용도를 높일 뿐만아니라 탄력적인 하천유량관리를 위한 기초연구로 활용될 수 있을 것이며, 타 분야 기술과의 융합이라는 점에서도 의의를 가질 수 있을 것으로 생각된다.

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A Study on the Trends of RPA Subjects in Korea -Focusing on cases of application of distribution business- (RPA 주제별 국내 동향연구 -유통업무 적용사례를 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Ho;Park, Hyeon-Suk
    • Industry Promotion Research
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.21-35
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    • 2021
  • Research on the introduction aspect of research has focused on the direction, performance expectations, costs, regulations, and risks of RPA introduction. Future research in terms of introduction has shown that in addition to organizational research, technical and environmental research needs to be activated. The application case studies have been conducted on actual entities, application tasks and application occupations. Future research on application case aspects seems to require research on RPA technical post-use performance for actual companies, application tasks, and applied jobs. The study of market analysis aspects has shown that the formation stage of the market and the prediction of future markets. Future research will be possible in connection with AI and the Fourth Industrial Revolution to study how future markets will develop. The acceptance aspect of research can be said to be a relatively poor field of research compared to other subjects. If research on acceptance aspects is further activated in the future, it will contribute to the development of new technology acceptance theory and suggest implications for RPA introduction, RPA application, and RPA market revitalization.

Development of an Algorithm for Intellectual Control System of Desalination Plants (해수담수화시설의 지능적 운영을 위한 알고리즘 개발)

  • Park, Hyunki;Lee, Dongseop;Han, Kukheon;Kim, Jaeho
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.522-522
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    • 2016
  • 우리나라의 488개 유인도 중 강수량 부족 혹은 지하수의 수질문제 등으로 상습적 식수난을 겪고 있는 도서지역은 237개에 이르고 있다. 이들 도서지역은 생활용수를 우물, 간이상수도, 운반급수 등에 의존하고 있지만 이중 47%의 도서는 간이급수시설이 전무한 실정이다. 2015년에는 인천시 옹진군의 소청도, 대청도에 장기간 지속된 가뭄으로 식수원이 고갈되어 3일에 1시간으로 급수를 제한하였고 이로 인해 식수난 문제 외 관광산업의 소득저하 등의 문제가 발생되어 원활한 물공급문제가 해결되지 않으면 도서지역의 위기는 심각할 것으로 우려된다. 도서지역의 기본권인 먹는 물 문제를 해결하기 위해 정부 및 지자체에서는 소규모 유인도서에 해수담수화시설을 설치하여 유지관리 및 운영을 위한 인력을 배치하고 수동으로 조작하거나 단순 자동운전에 의해 운영 및 관리되고 있는 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 해수담수화시설의 안정적이고 효율적인 운영을 위해 지능적 수운영 알고리즘을 개발하였다. 제어시스템, 감시시스템, 계측시스템 등의 ICT 기술과 연계하여 수요를 정확히 예측하고, 실시간 전력비용과 저류량, 사용량 등을 통합적으로 고려하였으며 적시정량을 생산하여 저장 및 공급하며, 목표수질과 수량을 원활하고 안정적으로 공급할 수 있도록 제어 및 감시를 통한 지능적 수운영을 목적으로 연구하였다. 데이터의 수집과 전송, 분석, 제어, 감시 활동이 유기적으로 결합되어 용수의 생산과 분배, 공급활동을 자동화함으로 운영상의 리스크를 줄여주며, 필요시 통합운영센터에서의 의사결정을 지원할 수 있도록 개발하였다. 향후, 해수담수화시설뿐이 아닌 일반 상수도 수운영에 있어서의 취수, 도수, 정수, 배수지관리, 송수, 관망관리까지 자동화된 시스템을 개발하여 지능적 운영관리가 가능하도록 알고리즘 모델 및 프로그램을 제시하고자 한다.

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Risk Prediction Model of Legal Contract Based on Korean Machine Reading Comprehension (한국어 기계독해 기반 법률계약서 리스크 예측 모델)

  • Lee, Chi Hoon;Woo, Noh Ji;Jeong, Jae Hoon;Joo, Kyung Sik;Lee, Dong Hee
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.131-143
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    • 2021
  • Commercial transactions, one of the pillars of the capitalist economy, are occurring countless times every day, especially small and medium-sized businesses. However, small and medium-sized enterprises are bound to be the legal underdogs in contracts for commercial transactions and do not receive legal support for contracts for fair and legitimate commercial transactions. When subcontracting contracts are concluded among small and medium-sized enterprises, 58.2% of them do not apply standard contracts and sign contracts that have not undergone legal review. In order to support small and medium-sized enterprises' fair and legitimate contracts, small and medium-sized enterprises can be protected from legal threats if they can reduce the risk of signing contracts by analyzing various risks in the contract and analyzing and informing them of toxic clauses and omitted contracts in advance. We propose a risk prediction model for the machine reading-based legal contract to minimize legal damage to small and medium-sized business owners in the legal blind spots. We have established our own set of legal questions and answers based on the legal data disclosed for the purpose of building a model specialized in legal contracts. Quantitative verification was carried out through indicators such as EM and F1 Score by applying pine tuning and hostile learning to pre-learned machine reading models. The highest F1 score was 87.93, with an EM value of 72.41.

An Analysis on the Centrality of Domestic Areas and Ports: Using SNA Methodology (SNA 분석을 이용한 해상 수출입화물의 네트워크 구조와 국내 항만의 중심성 분석)

  • Kim, Joo-Hye;Kim, Chi-Yeol
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.25-43
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    • 2022
  • Unlike the past, efforts must be made to interpret physical distribution from a network perspective as the service area expands spatially. In addition, logistics networks are undergoing rapid changes due to various changes in the environment. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the changes in the structure of maritime cargo and the centrality of ports using social network analysis. Using the trade data of domestic maritime at five-year intervals, we investigated changes in the network structure and identified the main factors that affect the centrality of domestic ports. Ports with the highest centrality, which is seen as a port that plays the role of an intermediary, emerged in the order of Busan and Ulsan. This study predicts patterns of domestic cargo trade over the next 20 years based on changes in port centrality and understanding of maritime cargo network, and can be used as reference materials for risk preparation.

Estimation of Contingency for Highway Construction Project Using Regression Analysis (회귀분석을 이용한 고속도로 건설공사 예비비의 산정)

  • Yoon, Yoo Jung;Woo, Sungkwon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.4D
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    • pp.617-626
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of contingency estimate is to manage the increase in construction cost and the extension of the term of works due to the inevitable occurrence of uncertain situations. The aim of contingency strategies have two intentions. One thing, can be called a passive strategy, gets ready for construction cost increase due to uncertainty factors, the other thing, can be called a active strategy, gets rid of the obstruction factors of work prior to construction performance. Therefore, from the view point of medium and long term, there is necessary to accumulate data in conjunction with design modification cases and carefully analyze uncertainty factors from construction types and characters. Therefore, this thesis will analyze design modification case at a special work such as highway and select factors that affect construction cost and present contingency estimate process using regression analysis.

Estimation of Physical Climate Risk for Private Companies (민간기업을 위한 물리적 기후리스크 추정 연구)

  • Yong-Sang Choi;Changhyun Yoo;Minjeong Kong;Minjeong Cho;Haesoo Jung;Yoon-Kyoung Lee;Seon Ki Park;Myoung-Hwan Ahn;Jaehak Hwang;Sung Ju Kim
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2024
  • Private companies are increasingly required to take more substantial actions on climate change. This study introduces the principle and cases of climate (physical) risk estimation for 11 private companies in Korea. Climate risk is defined as the product of three major determinants: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Hazard is the intensity or frequency of weather phenomena that can cause disasters. Vulnerability can be reflected in the function that explains the relationship between past weather records and loss records. The final climate risk is calculated by multiplying the function by the exposure, which is defined as the area or value of the target area exposed to the climate. Future climate risk is estimated by applying future exposure to estimated future hazard using climate model scenarios or statistical trends based on weather data. The estimated climate risks are developed into three types according to the demand of private companies: i) climate risk for financial portfolio management, ii) climate risk for port logistics management, iii) climate risk for supply chain management. We hope that this study will contribute to the establishment of the climate risk management system in the Korean industrial sector as a whole.

A Pilot Study on Applying Text Mining Tools to Analyzing Steel Industry Trends : A Case Study of the Steel Industry for the Company "P" (철강산업 트렌드 분석을 위한 텍스트 마이닝 도입 연구 : P사(社) 사례를 중심으로)

  • Min, Ki Young;Kim, Hoon Tae;Ji, Yong Gu
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.51-64
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    • 2014
  • It becomes more and more important for business survival to have the ability to predict the future with uncertainties increasing faster and faster. To predict the future, text mining tools are one of the main candidate other than traditional quantitative analyses, but those efforts are still at their infancy. This paper is to introduce one of those efforts using the case of company "P" in the steel industry. Even with only four month pilot studies, we found strong possibilities, if not testified robustly, to predict future industrial trends using text mining tools. For these text mining case studies, we categorized steel industry trend keywords into ten components (10 categories) to study ten different subjects for each category. Once found any meaningful changes in a trend, we had investigated in more detail what and how some trend happened so. To be more roust, firstly we need to define more cleary the purpose of text mining analyses. Then we need to categorize industry trend key words in a more systematic way using systems thinking models. With these improvements, we are quite sure that applying text mining tools to analyzing industry trends will contribute to predicting the future industry trends as well as to identifying the unseen trends otherwise.

A Study on the Prediction of Initial Sales Rate on Apartment Housing Projects (민간 아파트 사업의 초기계약률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Seongsoo;Kim, Leeyoung
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.3-11
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    • 2015
  • Apartment developers consider the initial sales rate as an important indicator for their success of apartment development projects. They tried to achieve a secure level of initial sales rate. In spite of its importance, there is little research on the initial sales rate because of the difficulties in gathering proper data for analysis. This study, however, collects the data in initial sales rates in Su-won from various sources such as construction companies, marketing companies, sales companies and so on. By using this rare data, this study analyses the initial contract rate of apartment and estimates the initial contract rate by sales price. The result of this study shows that important of land area ratio, brand, and distance to park. It is expected that the proposed model will be used for apartment developers in sales planning phase.

Artificial Intelligence Strategy for Advertising and Media Industries: Focused on In-depth Interviews (광고 및 미디어 산업 분야의 인공지능(AI) 활용 전략 : 심층인터뷰를 중심으로)

  • Cha, Young Ran
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.18 no.9
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    • pp.102-115
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    • 2018
  • The world's major countries carry forward strategies for enhancing industrial competitiveness, resulting in the fourth industrial revolution while a new growth engine is required to deal with the slow growth of global economy and declining productivity. Artificial intelligence (AI) is regarded as a core technology of the fourth industrial revolution. AI is expected to be implemented rapidly in advertising and media industries. However, it is hard to find an effective way to implement AI in these industries, especially because of how quickly the AI market changes and develops. Therefore, this study seeks the possible industrial influence of AI in advertising and media industries and invigoration plan for AI, by an in-depth interview with 10 professionals who lead the AI market. First, it was analyzed to explore the macroscopic side of the AI market through P (Politics), E (Economy), S (Society), and T (Technology). Also, the applicability of AI in advertising and media industries was explored by analyzing its S (Strength), W (Weakness), O (Opportunity), and T (Threat).The result indicates that it is necessary to build up a nation-wide construction of infrastructure for the fourth industrial revolution to invigorate AI in advertising and media industries. Moreover, a social environment capable of overcoming a hyper-connected society and social risks should be fostered. Lastly, it is urgent for both the industrial and academic world to diagnose the influence of AI in advertising and media industries, to anticipate the future in accordance with technological advance, set a proper direction, to invest actively for technical development of AI, and to formulate innovative policies.