• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.50-50
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• 2017

도시홍수의 잠재적 위험은 홍수경감계획이 발전됨에 따라 감소하지만, 침수피해 가능성은 도시화와 도시 확장에 따라 증가한다. 침수피해 가능성에 대한 사전 파악 및 위험도 분석은 대규모 침수재해 발생 시의 위기관리에도 도움을 준다. 또한, 경제적 피해에 대한 예측은 재해발생 후 복구 및 복원 작업에 필요한 자원 할당에 매우 유용하며, 잠재적 홍수 피해에 대한 예측은 장기적인 홍수경감계획과 재해관리에 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 다차원 침수해석 모형의 결과로 산정 가능한 침수심, 유속 등의 지표들을 복합적으로 고려하여 침수위험도를 산정하고, 침수 발생 위험이 있는 지역의 인문 사회 경제적 지표를 통해 피해 저감 및 복구성을 반영하기 위한 재해 취약인자를 선정하여 해당 지역에 대한 취약도를 산정하였다. 또한, 분석된 위험도와 취약도의 연산으로 통합리스크 분석을 실시하여 침수 발생 시 해당지역에 대한 피해 예상과 지역별 상대평가가 가능하도록 하였다. 위험도와 취약도 및 리스크 분석은 다양한 인자를 동시에 고려하기 위해 여러 개의 기준에 대한 선호도를 결정하거나 최적 대안을 선택하는 다기준의사결정(MCDM)기법을 적용하였으며, MCDM기법 중 보편적으로 많이 이용되는 TOPSIS기법을 적용하였다. 이러한 리스크 분석은 우리나라 전체, 특정 시도, 시군구, 읍면동 간의 침수피해와 관련한 상대적 비교 평가가 가능하며, 대응 및 대비의 관점에서 저감 대책 수립의 우선 지역을 도출하는 데 활용될 수 있을 것이며, 침수피해 발생 후, 리스크가 큰 지역에 대해 우선적으로 복구 조치가 이뤄질 수 있을 것이다. 또한, 한정된 지자체 예산 안에서 도시홍수 피해 경감 대책 수립을 위한 의사결정에 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.385-394
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• 2018

There have been frequent reports of schedule delays due to various risks of remodeling projects, which are different from new construction. Therefore, this study was carried out to analyze the risk factors inherent in the remodeling project and the likelihood of schedule delay occurrence in the remodeling construction work. To analyze the relationship between the risk factors and the likelihood of schedule delays of remodeling projects, (1) a prototype of the office building remodeling work was developed through the analysis of existing case and literature, (2) a questionnaire survey was conducted on 29 construction managers who have been or are currently conducting remodeling projects, and (3) after evaluating the reliability of the collected questionnaire results, the relationship between the two elements, which denotes (i) likelihood of schedule delays per each work, (ii) importance of risk factors, and (iii) risk factors affecting schedule delay in remodeling work, was suggested. Using the results of this study, it is expected to develop a plan for preventing the schedule delay of the office building remodeling work through control the risk factors that may cause schedule delays.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.99-110
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• 2018

This study empirically examines simple methodology to quantify the risk resulted from the uncertainty of bunker price and foreign exchange rate, which cause main resources of the cost in shipping industry during the periods between $1^{st}$ of January 2010 and $31^{st}$ of January 2018. To shed light on the risk measurement in cash flows we tested GBM(Geometric Brownian Motion) frameworks such as the model with conditional heteroskedasticity and jump diffusion process. The main contribution based on empirical results are summarized as following three: first, the risk analysis, which is dependent on a single variable such as freight yield, is extended to analyze the effects of multiple factors such as bunker price and exchange rate return volatility. Second, at the individual firm level, the need for risk management in bunker price and exchange rate is presented as cash flow. Finally, based on the scale of the risk presented by the analysis results, the shipping companies are required that there is a need to consider what is appropriate as a means of risk management.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.18 no.5
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• pp.453-467
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• 2016

Overall risks that can occur in a shield TBM tunnelling are studied in this paper. Both the potential risk events that may occur during tunnel construction and their causes are identified, and the causal relationship between causes and events is obtained in a systematic way. Risk impact analysis is performed for the potential risk events and ways to mitigate the risks are summarized. Literature surveys as well as interviews with experts were made for this purpose. The potential risk events are classified into eight categories: cuttability reduction, collapse of a tunnel face, ground surface settlement and upheaval, spurts of slurry on the ground, incapability of mucking and excavation, and water leakage. The causes of these risks are categorized into three areas: geological, design and construction management factors. Bayesian Networks (BN) were established to systematically assess a causal relationship between causes and events. The risk impact analysis was performed to evaluate a risk response level by adopting an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with the consideration of the downtime and cost of measures. Based on the result of the risk impact analysis, the risk events are divided into four risk response levels and these levels are verified by comparing with the actual occurrences of risk events. Measures to mitigate the potential risk events during the design and/or construction stages are also proposed. Result of this research will be of the help to the designers and contractors of TBM tunnelling projects in identifying the potential risks and for preparing a systematic risk management through the evaluation of the risk response level and the migration methods in the design and construction stage.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.89-99
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• 2012

Urban regeneration projects tingeing the shape of mixed-use development, due to the nature of the business, involve risk factors such as protracted business conflict among participations, subjects, complex approval and permission procedure, frequent policy changes, etc. Therefore, systematic risk management is needed to effectively manage the numerous risk factors that may occur during the process course of project. However, risk management of large and complex development projects such as urban regeneration projects is in the introduction stage yet and somewhat one time risk management plan has been established. Therefore, in this study, in order to systematic risk management of urban regeneration projects inhered numerous risk factors, risk factors for urban regeneration projects through preceding studies and case studies were presented. Also risk factors are classified in accordance with business propulsion phase, by estimating the importance for these, step by step emphasis on managed subjects of risk management was proposed.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.6 no.4 s.26
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• pp.71-79
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• 2005

As construction projects have been extremely enormous, complex and special, risk factors have been increased consistently. Therefore, it is very important to identify and cope with the uncertain risk factors in such building constructions for successful project accomplishment. The purpose of this research is to approach practical affairs directly and show detail alternatives of risk factors by extracting the risk factors throughout construction process of curtain wall that is largely influenced on cost, quality, schedule ,safety and following activity. Also, extracting these risk factors make it possible to analyze quantitative risk and decide the priority raking of risk factors. Especially, this research is aimed to provide efficient management of scheduling risk that can make the risk minimize to practical workers who have different degree of knowledge and experience to the construction cite when the risk brings out suddenly.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.59-68
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• 2010

Systematic risk management is necessary in grand scaled urban construction because of the existence of complicated and various risk factors. Problems of obstructions, adjacent structures, safety, environment, traffic and geotechnical properties need to be solved because urban construction is progressed in limited space not as general earthwork. Therefore the establishment of special risk management system is necessary to manage not only geotechnical properties but also social and cultural uncertainties. This research presents the technique analysis by the current state of risk management technique. Risk factors were noticed and the importance of each factor was estimated through survey. The systemically categorized database was established. Risk extraction module, matrix and score module were developed based on the database. Expected construction budget and time distribution can be computed by Monte Carlo analysis of probabilities and influences. Construction budgets and time distributions of before and after response can be compared and analyzed 80 the risks are manageable for entire whole construction time. This system will be the foundation of standardization and integration. Procurement, efficiency improvement, effective time and resource management are available through integrated management technique development and application. Conclusively decrease in cost and time is expected by systemization of project management.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2022.11a
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• pp.392-393
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• 2022

선박에 IT/OT가 도입되면서 사이버 위협이 증가하고 있습니다. 선박에서의 사이버 리스크 관리를 위해 현존하는 선박 내 사이버자산을 식별하고, 노출된 사이버 위협을 인지하고, 사이버 리스크 평가를 통한 대응방안을 이론적, 사례적으로 분석한 내용을 공유합니다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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• autumn
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• pp.454-459
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• 2003

Feasibility study on large scale projects like an investment on infrastructure development is very important because it provides fundamental data which determine the total investment size and duration. However, previous feasibility studies have a few problems of ambiguous estimation standards, unsystematical estimation methods, and so on. Accordingly, this study intends to regulate tile problems on economic feasibility as well as financial feasibility study which have been considered more critical in recent time, subsequently presents a reform measure. Also, this study identifies predictable risks during the feasibility study, presents a scheme which lets investor and owner control the risk themselves through a process which uses theoretical and political management plans.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.3-11
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• 2021

Myanmar is an undeveloped country with high development value among Asian countries. Therefore, various countries including the U.S. are considering entering the market. In this respect, demand for real estate development project is forecast to grow on increased inflow of foreigners and Myanmar's economic growth. However, Myanmar is a high-risk country in terms of overseas companies, including national risk. In this study, we conducted an in-depth interview with experts (law, finance, technology, and local experts) after analyzing data on Myanmar to extract risk-causing factors. Through this, 106 risk factors were extracted, and the final risk classification system was established by conducting three-time groupings using the affinity diagramming. And the relative importance of each factor was presented using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique. As a result, the country-related risk, the fund-related risk, and the pre-sale-related risk were highly important. The research results are expected to provide risk management standards to companies entering the Myanmar real estate development type project.