• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.147-168
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• 2017

There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.161-177
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• 2014

Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.23-46
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• 2021

Collaborative filtering, which is often used in personalization recommendations, is recognized as a very useful technique to find similar customers and recommend products to them based on their purchase history. However, the traditional collaborative filtering technique has raised the question of having difficulty calculating the similarity for new customers or products due to the method of calculating similaritiesbased on direct connections and common features among customers. For this reason, a hybrid technique was designed to use content-based filtering techniques together. On the one hand, efforts have been made to solve these problems by applying the structural characteristics of social networks. This applies a method of indirectly calculating similarities through their similar customers placed between them. This means creating a customer's network based on purchasing data and calculating the similarity between the two based on the features of the network that indirectly connects the two customers within this network. Such similarity can be used as a measure to predict whether the target customer accepts recommendations. The centrality metrics of networks can be utilized for the calculation of these similarities. Different centrality metrics have important implications in that they may have different effects on recommended performance. In this study, furthermore, the effect of these centrality metrics on the performance of recommendation may vary depending on recommender algorithms. In addition, recommendation techniques using network analysis can be expected to contribute to increasing recommendation performance even if they apply not only to new customers or products but also to entire customers or products. By considering a customer's purchase of an item as a link generated between the customer and the item on the network, the prediction of user acceptance of recommendation is solved as a prediction of whether a new link will be created between them. As the classification models fit the purpose of solving the binary problem of whether the link is engaged or not, decision tree, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), logistic regression, artificial neural network, and support vector machine (SVM) are selected in the research. The data for performance evaluation used order data collected from an online shopping mall over four years and two months. Among them, the previous three years and eight months constitute social networks composed of and the experiment was conducted by organizing the data collected into the social network. The next four months' records were used to train and evaluate recommender models. Experiments with the centrality metrics applied to each model show that the recommendation acceptance rates of the centrality metrics are different for each algorithm at a meaningful level. In this work, we analyzed only four commonly used centrality metrics: degree centrality, betweenness centrality, closeness centrality, and eigenvector centrality. Eigenvector centrality records the lowest performance in all models except support vector machines. Closeness centrality and betweenness centrality show similar performance across all models. Degree centrality ranking moderate across overall models while betweenness centrality always ranking higher than degree centrality. Finally, closeness centrality is characterized by distinct differences in performance according to the model. It ranks first in logistic regression, artificial neural network, and decision tree withnumerically high performance. However, it only records very low rankings in support vector machine and K-neighborhood with low-performance levels. As the experiment results reveal, in a classification model, network centrality metrics over a subnetwork that connects the two nodes can effectively predict the connectivity between two nodes in a social network. Furthermore, each metric has a different performance depending on the classification model type. This result implies that choosing appropriate metrics for each algorithm can lead to achieving higher recommendation performance. In general, betweenness centrality can guarantee a high level of performance in any model. It would be possible to consider the introduction of proximity centrality to obtain higher performance for certain models.

• Journal of dental hygiene science
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.107-119
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• 2011

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of oral health behavior by oral health belief from the students in the dental hygienics department who take charge of oral health office, and therefore to lead a clear oral health care, to complete desirable oral health belief, and finally to utilize them for oral health field. The survey was conducted using structured self-administered questionnaires based on oral health belief model targeting 163 students in the dental hygienics department of one of the college in Seoul, and collected data were statistically analyzed using the SPSS 18.0 program. As a result of analysis to determine that the oral health belief significantly affects on the oral heal behavior, the personal variables such as age, economic status and occupation, and the seriousness for the oral health belief were indicated to be significant variables(p<0.05), and as a result of analysis that effects on the number of the oral health behavior, the susceptibility and the seriousness were indicated to be significant variables for oral health belief(P<0.05). As a conclusion, oral health belief was identified as a factor of salience through understanding that oral health belief of the students in the dental hygienics department effects on oral health behavior based on an oral health belief model, and it can be concluded that the necessity of oral health belief investigation should be discussed as a crucial issue to provide a more effective oral health promotion plan.

• Journal of Nutrition and Health
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• v.47 no.4
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• pp.247-257
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• 2014

Purpose: It is reported that most senior people consume a high carbohydrate diet, while a high carbohydrate diet could contribute to the risk of chronic disease. The aim of this study is to determine whether a high carbohydrate diet can increase the risk of chronic disease in elderly Koreans. Methods: Using the 2007-2009 Korean National Health Nutrition Examination Survey data, out of a total of 3,917 individuals aged 65 and above, final 1,535 subjects were analyzed, divided by dietary carbohydrate energy ratio into two groups of moderate carbohydrate ratio (MCR, 55-70%) and excessive carbohydrate ratio (ECR, > 70%). All data were processed after the application of weighted value, using a general linear model or logistic regression. Results: Eighty one percent of elderly Koreans consumed diets with carbohydrate energy ratio above 70%. The ECR group included more female subjects, rural residents, lower income, and lower education level. The ECR group showed lower waist circumference, lower diastolic blood pressure, and lower frequency of consumption of meat and egg, milk, and alcohol. The intake of energy and most nutrients, with the exception of fiber, potassium, vitamin A, and carotene, was lower in the ECR group compared to the MCR group. When analyzed by gender, the ECR group showed lower risk of dyslipidemia in male and obesity in female subjects, even though the ECR group showed low intake of some nutrients. No difference in the risk of hypertension, diabetes, and anemia was observed between the two groups in male or female subjects. Conclusion: This result suggested that a high carbohydrate diet would not be a cause to increase the risk of chronic disease in the elderly. Further study is needed in order to determine an appropriate carbohydrate energy ratio for elderly Koreans to reduce the risk of chronic disease.

• Journal of dental hygiene science
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.134-141
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• 2017

This study examined 191 pregnant women before delivery in an obstetrics and gynecology clinic in North Gyeongsang Province from May to September 2016 by using a questionnaire after obtaining informed consent for voluntary participation in the study. The study was performed to investigate the association of depression with sociodemographic characteristics, pregnancy-related characteristics, social support, sleep quality and Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP) in pregnant women. The prevalence of depression among the pregnant women was 25.1% in the healthy group and 74.9% in the depression group. The depression level was significantly higher in women in the depression group who were unsatisfied with their marriage life, had no occupation, had lower social support, had poor sleep quality and had higher OHIP scores. The results of the logistic regression analysis indicated that, the risk ratio for more severe depression was significantly higher in the group with no experience of miscarriage and induced childbirth than in the group with childbirth experience. Conversely, the risk ratio for more severe depression was significantly lower in the group with high social support than in the group with low social support. Depression in the respondents significantly positively correlated with sleep quality and OHIP score but significantly negatively correlated with social support. The multiple regression analysis revealed that the depression level was significantly higher by 22.3% among pregnant women with lower marital satisfaction, no childbirth experience, lower social support and higher OHIP scores. In summary, depression was related to marital satisfaction, childbirth experience, social support, and OHIP score, among others, in pregnant women in this study. Therefore, further investigation is warranted to construct programs and measures that will help build positive thinking by designing and verifying a three-dimensional study model by taking into consideration various variables to reduce the incidence of depression in pregnant women.

• 한국노년학
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.639-657
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of individual differences in recognition of retirement responsibility on financial preparedness for retirement and to examine moderating effect of income-level on the relationships between the two variables, using the 7th Korean Retirement and Income Study(KReIS). Two research methods, descriptive analysis and hierarchical multiple logistic regression(HMLR) analysis, have been conducted. The total number of sample was 3,869 subjects with an average age of 58.9 years and 55.3% males. The results show that only 35.8% of the respondents make financial plans for retirement, and 64.2% did not. Main findings are as follows. First, 65% of respondents take a responsibility for financial preparedness for retirement, compared to 37% in European countries. Second, people with responsibility for their own retirement are more likely to have a financial preparation for retirement than people who think others(family, society, government) have to take a responsibility for retirement instead of them. Third, there is a significant moderating effect of income-level on relationships between recognition of retirement responsibility and financial preparedness for retirement. As income level decreases, the moderating effect reduces the positive effect of recognition of retirement responsibility on financial preparedness for retirement and vice versa. Fourth, as income level increases and educational level is higher, the tendency to prepare financially for retirement is also increasing. Low-income and low-educated people are less likely to have a financial preparation for retirement than their counterparts. The findings suggest that it is necessary to design an effective incentive scheme for financial preparedness for retirement for low-income and low-educated people and to develop various policies and services to encourage them to prepare financially for retirement.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.1
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• pp.143-159
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• 2017

Due to the rapid development of IT in recent years, not only personal information but also the key technologies and information leakage that companies have are becoming important issues. For the enterprise, the core technology that the company possesses is a very important part for the survival of the enterprise and for the continuous competitive advantage. Recently, there have been many cases of technical infringement. Technology leaks not only cause tremendous financial losses such as falling stock prices for companies, but they also have a negative impact on corporate reputation and delays in corporate development. In the case of SMEs, where core technology is an important part of the enterprise, compared to large corporations, the preparation for technological leakage can be seen as an indispensable factor in the existence of the enterprise. As the necessity and importance of Information Security Management (ISM) is emerging, it is necessary to check and prepare for the threat of technology infringement early in the enterprise. Nevertheless, previous studies have shown that the majority of policy alternatives are represented by about 90%. As a research method, literature analysis accounted for 76% and empirical and statistical analysis accounted for a relatively low rate of 16%. For this reason, it is necessary to study the management model and prediction model to prevent leakage of technology to meet the characteristics of SMEs. In this study, before analyzing the empirical analysis, we divided the technical characteristics from the technology value perspective and the organizational factor from the technology control point based on many previous researches related to the factors affecting the technology leakage. A total of 12 related variables were selected for the two factors, and the analysis was performed with these variables. In this study, we use three - year data of "Small and Medium Enterprise Technical Statistics Survey" conducted by the Small and Medium Business Administration. Analysis data includes 30 industries based on KSIC-based 2-digit classification, and the number of companies affected by technology leakage is 415 over 3 years. Through this data, we conducted a randomized sampling in the same industry based on the KSIC in the same year, and compared with the companies (n = 415) and the unaffected firms (n = 415) 1:1 Corresponding samples were prepared and analyzed. In this research, we will conduct an empirical analysis to search for factors influencing technology leakage, and propose an early warning system through data mining. Specifically, in this study, based on the questionnaire survey of SMEs conducted by the Small and Medium Business Administration (SME), we classified the factors that affect the technology leakage of SMEs into two factors(Technology Characteristics, Organization Characteristics). And we propose a model that informs the possibility of technical infringement by using Support Vector Machine(SVM) which is one of the various techniques of data mining based on the proven factors through statistical analysis. Unlike previous studies, this study focused on the cases of various industries in many years, and it can be pointed out that the artificial intelligence model was developed through this study. In addition, since the factors are derived empirically according to the actual leakage of SME technology leakage, it will be possible to suggest to policy makers which companies should be managed from the viewpoint of technology protection. Finally, it is expected that the early warning model on the possibility of technology leakage proposed in this study will provide an opportunity to prevent technology Leakage from the viewpoint of enterprise and government in advance.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.301-311
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• 2013

This study aims to analyze characteristics, health behaviors and health management level related to private health examination recipients in one general hospital. To achieve this, we analyzed 150,501 cases of private health examination data for 11 years from 2001 to 2011 for 20,696 participants in 2011 in a Dae-Jeon general hospital health examination center. The cluster analysis for classify private health examination group is used z-score standardization of K-means clustering method. The logistic regression analysis, decision tree and neural network analysis are used to periodic/non-periodic private health examination classification model. 1,000 people were selected as a customer management business group that has high probability to be non-periodic private health examination patients in new private health examination. According to results of this study, private health examination group was categorized by new, periodic and non-periodic group. New participants in private health examination were more 30~39 years old person than other age groups and more patients suspected of having renal disease. Periodic participants in private health examination were more male participants and more patients suspected of having hyperlipidemia. Non-periodic participants in private health examination were more smoking and sitting person and more patients suspected of having anemia and diabetes mellitus. As a result of decision tree, variables related to non-periodic participants in private health examination were sex, age, residence, exercise, anemia, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, obesity and liver disease. In particular, 71.4% of non-periodic participants were female, non-anemic, non-exercise, and suspicious obesity person. To operation of customized customer management business for private health examination will contribute to efficiency in health examination center.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.167-181
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• 2018

Over the past decade, deep learning has been in spotlight among various machine learning algorithms. In particular, CNN(Convolutional Neural Network), which is known as the effective solution for recognizing and classifying images or voices, has been popularly applied to classification and prediction problems. In this study, we investigate the way to apply CNN in business problem solving. Specifically, this study propose to apply CNN to stock market prediction, one of the most challenging tasks in the machine learning research. As mentioned, CNN has strength in interpreting images. Thus, the model proposed in this study adopts CNN as the binary classifier that predicts stock market direction (upward or downward) by using time series graphs as its inputs. That is, our proposal is to build a machine learning algorithm that mimics an experts called 'technical analysts' who examine the graph of past price movement, and predict future financial price movements. Our proposed model named 'CNN-FG(Convolutional Neural Network using Fluctuation Graph)' consists of five steps. In the first step, it divides the dataset into the intervals of 5 days. And then, it creates time series graphs for the divided dataset in step 2. The size of the image in which the graph is drawn is $40(pixels){\times}40(pixels)$, and the graph of each independent variable was drawn using different colors. In step 3, the model converts the images into the matrices. Each image is converted into the combination of three matrices in order to express the value of the color using R(red), G(green), and B(blue) scale. In the next step, it splits the dataset of the graph images into training and validation datasets. We used 80% of the total dataset as the training dataset, and the remaining 20% as the validation dataset. And then, CNN classifiers are trained using the images of training dataset in the final step. Regarding the parameters of CNN-FG, we adopted two convolution filters ($5{\times}5{\times}6$ and $5{\times}5{\times}9$) in the convolution layer. In the pooling layer, $2{\times}2$ max pooling filter was used. The numbers of the nodes in two hidden layers were set to, respectively, 900 and 32, and the number of the nodes in the output layer was set to 2(one is for the prediction of upward trend, and the other one is for downward trend). Activation functions for the convolution layer and the hidden layer were set to ReLU(Rectified Linear Unit), and one for the output layer set to Softmax function. To validate our model - CNN-FG, we applied it to the prediction of KOSPI200 for 2,026 days in eight years (from 2009 to 2016). To match the proportions of the two groups in the independent variable (i.e. tomorrow's stock market movement), we selected 1,950 samples by applying random sampling. Finally, we built the training dataset using 80% of the total dataset (1,560 samples), and the validation dataset using 20% (390 samples). The dependent variables of the experimental dataset included twelve technical indicators popularly been used in the previous studies. They include Stochastic %K, Stochastic %D, Momentum, ROC(rate of change), LW %R(Larry William's %R), A/D oscillator(accumulation/distribution oscillator), OSCP(price oscillator), CCI(commodity channel index), and so on. To confirm the superiority of CNN-FG, we compared its prediction accuracy with the ones of other classification models. Experimental results showed that CNN-FG outperforms LOGIT(logistic regression), ANN(artificial neural network), and SVM(support vector machine) with the statistical significance. These empirical results imply that converting time series business data into graphs and building CNN-based classification models using these graphs can be effective from the perspective of prediction accuracy. Thus, this paper sheds a light on how to apply deep learning techniques to the domain of business problem solving.