• International Area Studies Review
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.77-97
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• 2012

Estimated coefficients has serious problems including inconsistency, biasness, etc. because many researches about the effect of fiscal decentralization on a country's economic growth use the traditional OLS method. Researches use the data intactly so that so called "spurious regression" phenomenon exists. This causes fundamental fallacy. This research tries unit root test, cointegration test, and then estimates the United States' economic time series by using VECM. The analysis of the effect of the state level-fiscal decentralization on economic growth shows two long term-equilibriums. During short term-dynamic adjustment, fiscal decentralization and economic growth move the same or different directions. In case of prediction GDP increases steeply and then from 2015 gently; and fiscal decentralization index shows a general reduction trend and then decreases slowly. At local level it shows two long term-equilibriums. During short term-dynamic adjustment, fiscal decentralization and economic growth also move the same or different directions. Impulse response analysis shows the very negative effect of fiscal decentralization on economic growth.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.139-155
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• 2014

This study is to examine the linkage of volatility between changes in the stock market of India and other countries through the integration of the world economy. The results were as follows: First, autocorrelation or serial correlation did not exist in the classic RS model, but long-term memory was present in the modified RS model. Second, unit root did not exist in the unit root test for all periods, and the series were a stable explanatory power and a long-term memory with the normal conditions in the ARFIMA model. Third, in the multivariate asymmetric BEKK and VAR model before the financial crisis, it showed that there was a strong influence of the own market of Taiwan and UK in the conditional mean equation, and a strong spillover effect from Japan to India, from Taiwan to China(Korea, US), from US(Japan) to UK in one direction. In the conditional variance equation, GARCH showed a strong spillover effect that indicated the same direction as the result of ARCH coefficient of the market itself. Asymmetric effects in three home markets and between markets existed. Fourth, after the financial crisis, in the conditional mean equation, only the domestic market in Taiwan showed strong influences, and strong spillover effects existed from India to US, from Taiwan to Japan, from Korea to Germany in one direction. In the conditional variance equation, strong spillover effects were the same as the result of the pre-crisis and asymmetric effect in the domestic market in UK was present, and one-way asymmetric effect existed in Germany from Taiwan. Therefore, the results of this study presented the linkage between the volatilities of the stock market of India and other countries through the integration of the world economy, observing and confirming the asymmetric reactions and return(volatility) spillover effects between the stock market of India and other countries.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.121-145
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• 1992

This paper examines characteristics of time series data related to the construction investment(stationarity and time series components such as secular trend, cyclical fluctuation, seasonal variation, and random change) and surveys predictibility, fitness, and explicability of independent variables of various models to build a short-term construction investment forecasting model suitable for current economic circumstances. Unit root test, autocorrelation coefficient and spectral density function analysis show that related time series data do not have unit roots, fluctuate cyclically, and are largely explicated by lagged variables. Moreover it is very important for the short-term construction investment forecasting to grasp time lag relation between construction investment series and leading indicators such as building construction permits and value of construction orders received. In chapter 3, we explicate 7 forecasting models; Univariate time series model (ARIMA and multiplicative linear trend model), multivariate time series model using leading indicators (1st order autoregressive model, vector autoregressive model and error correction model) and multivariate time series model using National Accounts data (simple reduced form model disconnected from simultaneous macroeconomic model and VAR model). These models are examined by 4 statistical tools that are average absolute error, root mean square error, adjusted coefficient of determination, and Durbin-Watson statistic. This analysis proves two facts. First, multivariate models are more suitable than univariate models in the point that forecasting error of multivariate models tend to decrease in contrast to the case of latter. Second, VAR model is superior than any other multivariate models; average absolute prediction error and root mean square error of VAR model are quitely low and adjusted coefficient of determination is higher. This conclusion is reasonable when we consider current construction investment has sustained overheating growth more than secular trend.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.37 no.10
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• pp.869-880
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• 2004

The purpose of this study is to examine relationship between water consumption and economic growth in Korea, and to obtain policy implications of the results. To this end, we attempt to provide more careful consideration of the causality issues by applying rigorous techniques of Granger causality. Tests for unit roots, co-integration, and Granger causality based on an error-correction model are presented. The existence of bi-directional causality between water consumption and economic growth in Korea is detected. This finding has various implications for policy analysts and forecasters in Korea. Economic growth requires enormous water consumption, though there are many other factors contributing to economic growth, and water consumption is but one part of it. Thus, this study generates confidence in decisions to invest in the water supply infrastructure. Moreover, this study lends support to the argument that an increase in real income, ceteris paribus, gives rise to water consumption. Economic growth results in a higher proportion of national income spent on water supply services and stimulates further water consumption.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.95-106
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• 2016

Air transportation demand is consistently increasing in Korea due to economic growth and low cost carriers. For this reason, airport expansion plans are being discussed in Korea. Therefore, it is essential to forecast reliable air transportation demand with adequate methods. However, most of the air transportation demand models in Korea has been developed by simple regression analysis with several dummy variables. Simple regression analysis without considering stationarity of time-series data can bring spurious outputs when a direct causal relationship between explanatory variables and dependent variable does not exist. In this paper, econometric model were developed for air transportation demand based on stationarity in time-series data. Unit root test and co-integration test are used for testing hypothesis of stationarity.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.59-82
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• 2023

The purpose of this research is to conduct the empirical analysis of the short- and long-term causal relationship between public R&D investment, corporate R&D investment, and university R&D investment on economic growth in Korea. To this end, based on the time series data from 1976 to 2020, a causality test was conducted through the unit root test, cointegration test, and vector error correction model (VECM). As a result, it was found that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth in Korea, public R&D investment, corporate R&D investment, and university R&D investment, in which a causal relationship exists in the long run. Also, while public R&D investment has a short-term effect on economic growth, corporate and university R&D investment does not have a short-term effect on economic growth. In addition, the results shows that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between economic growth and public R&D investment, corporate R&D investment and public R&D investment, and university R&D investment and public R&D investment in the short term. Through this research, it was empirically found that a highly mutual relationship exists between public R&D investment, corporate R&D investment, university R&D investment and economic growth. In order to increase the ripple effect of R&D investment on economic growth in the future, R&D investment between universities and corporations should be mutually promoted, and R&D investment by corporations should have a positive effect on public R&D investment so that public R&D investment can contribute to future economic growth.

• Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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• v.50 no.5
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• pp.613-620
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• 2008

The genetic parameters used in National Hanwoo Genetic Evaluation(NHGE) were needed to be monitored and updated periodically for accounting any possible changes in population parameters due to selection and environmental changes. Genetic parameters were estimated with single and two-trait models with MTDFREML package using 2,791 carcass records of steers collected from Hanwoo Progeny Test Program(HPTP). Single and two-trait models gave similar parameter estimates for all traits. The heritability estimates from single and two-trait models for carcass weight(CW), dressing percentage(DP), eye muscle area(EMA), back fat thickness(BFT) and marbling score(MS) were 0.30, 0.30, 0.37, 0.44 and 0.44, respectively. The heritability estimates for all the traits except BFT were slightly lower than those used in NHGE but seemed to be within the acceptable ranges. However, further monitoring is needed because the data might not have fully reflected the changes such as carcass grading standards in performance testing program. In order to shift statistical model of NHGE from single trait model to multiple-trait model, the genetic correlations between carcass traits were estimated with pairwise two-trait models. The genetic correlation coefficients between CW and DP, between CW and EMA, between CW and BFT and between CW and MS were 0.44, 0.63, 0.17 and 0.06, respectively. Those between DP and EMA, between DP and BFT and between DP and MS were 0.29, 0.40 and 0.20. Those between EMA and BFT and between EMA and MS were －0.24 and 0.15, respectively. The genetic correlation coefficient between BFT and MS was 0.03.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.349-364
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• 2014

This study analyzed Granger causality between power consumption and production activity in manufacturing sector, by using error correction model. It found that there exists the connection between power consumption and production activity in manufacturing sector. By reflecting the industrial characteristics, it found not only the bilateral causality (power consumption ${\leftrightarrow}$ production activity) in power non-intensive industry, high value-added industry and low value-added industry, but also one-way causality (power consumption ${\rightarrow}$ production activity) in power-intensive industry. These results imply that power demand management policy focusing on efficiency improvement is necessary primarily to minimize negative impacts on production activity, and also stable power supply system is required to meet the increase of power demand.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.27-47
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• 2012

The study aims to analyze how the variables for Korea, such as the exports, imports, FDI(Inward) and FDI(Outward), influence the economic growth and how they affect each other. For the purpose of empirical analysis, this paper used the quarterly time series data from 1980 to 2010, dividing the period before and after 1997(IMF). The variables used in this study were log-transformation from the original variables. This study empirically tests the relationship among variables by using VECM with considering the time-series properties of each variable. The results found from the study are as followings. Causality analysis using VECM proved that no causality between GDP and exports existed, whereas causality between GDP and FDI(Inward) existed, in which GDP affected FDI(Inward) since IMF. However, it was found that other periods and FDI(Inward) did not affect GDF and had no causality among them.

• International Commerce and Information Review
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.151-167
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• 2014

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between globalization and income distribution in Korea. In order to identify the key determinants, the study investigates the effects of trade openness, inward and outward FDI flows, and per capita GDP on income distribution. The study uses methodology of unit root and co-integration technique as well as an error correction model over 1992 to 2011 by using annual data. The empirical findings showed that income inequality is reduced as trade openness and the per capita GDP increase. Meanwhile, income inequality is deteriorated as inward and outward FDI flows increased. In addition, the study revealed that the negative effect of inward FDI flows on income inequality is greater than that of outward FDI flows. This result supports the Feenstra and Hanson (1997) hypothesis. Overall the globalization process can be beneficial for the Korean economy, but its nature should be closely monitored regarding income distribution.