• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.253-265
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• 2013

It has been interested in developing useful information variables that are able to predict the future movement of final objects to attain the specific policy and strategic target. Term structure of interest rates is known as an important variable to predict future business and economic activity, yet there is little empirical work on the predictability of future changes in real output. This study attempts to develop the statistical model and examine whether domestic term structure of interest rates can predict variations of future cumulative changes in real growth on a long time horizon.

• 주류산업
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.1-11
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• 2004

올 들어 우리경제는 내수침체가 지속되는 가운데 해외악재가 잇달아 터지면서 경제위기감이 고조되고 있다. 민간소비와 기업투자는 갈수록 냉각되고 있는 반면에 중국쇼크 유가급등, 미국 금리 인상설 등 해외 악재가 잇달아 터지면서 경제성장의 유일한 견인차 역할을 하고 있는 수출마저 위협받고 있는 형국이기 때문이다.<중략>

• The Journal of shipping and logistics
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.545-563
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• 2018

This study analyzes the major factors affecting the freight rates of Very Large Crude-Oil Carriers (VLCC) using co-integration and vector error correction models (VECM). Particularly, we estimate the long-term equilibrium function that determines the VLCC freight rate by conducting difference conversion. In the VECM regression analysis, the error term converges toward long-term balance irrespective of whether the previous period's freight rate is bigger or smaller than the long-term equilibrium rate. Thus, even if the current rate is different from the long-term rate, it eventually converges to the long-term balance irrespective of a boom or recession. This study follows Ko and Ahn (2018), which analyzed the factors affecting the chemical carrier freight rate and was published in the Journal of Shipping and Logistics (Vol. 34, No. 2). It is expected that an academic comparison of the results of each study will be possible if further research is conducted on other vessel types, such as container ships and dry cargo vessels.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.43-69
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• 2021

As the trade linkages and the financial relationship between China and Korea grow stronger, China's influence on Korea is also growing larger. Therefore, it is meaningful to examine key features of Chinese monetary policy operations and the current situation, and to analyze the transmission mechanism of China's monetary policy shocks onto the Korea economy. China's monetary policy shocks can have an impact on the Korea economy through the trade, financial and oil-price channels. In the trade channel, an expansionary Chinese monetary policy can increase Korea's exports of intermediate goods to China under the vertical trade structure, via the vertical trade integration effect. Meanwhile, the expenditure switching effect and the income demand effect show no statistical significance. In the financial and oil-price channels, expansionary Chinese monetary policy shocks can decrease the interest rate and increase both stock prices and the consumer price index in Korea through changes in global portfolio capital flows, interest rates, and raw material prices.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.416-427
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• 2018

As the loan size of real estate PF is huge, its market ripple effect gets bigger when overdue occurs. Accordingly, the management of the delinquency rate and macroeconomic analysis are required. As the preceding research mainly proceeded with microeconomic analysis through the real estate PF data of individual banks to evaluate importance of list or analyzed core factors for delinquency, it lacked research on comprehensive real estate PF size. In order to overcome the limitations of such data, this research studied real estate PF delinquency rate of the entire market and effect relationship by the size. The research utilized the size of real estate PF loans, money supply, interest rate, consumer price index(CPI), and GDP data. Also, it applied the first model of VECM as linear relationship between at least two or more variables, following the result of co-integration test. As a result of Granger-causality test, the real estate PF loans delinquency rate is influenced by their loan size, and as a result of impulse response analysis, the interest rate is shown to be affecting delinquency rate the most. Interest rate could risesomeday and aggravate the delinquency rate of real estate PF. Also, risk exposure could be serious as the loan size increases.Therefore, the management of real estate PF delinquency rate requires continuous monitoring, tracking and observing issued loans from a macro point of view. The plans to prevent delinquency will be necessary.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.1-32
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• 2021

This study empirically analyzes whether bank capital channel and risk-taking channel for monetary policy work for domestic banks in South Korea by analyzing the impact of the expansionary monetary policy on the rate spread between deposit and loan, capital ratio, and loan amount. For the empirical analysis, the Uhlig (2005)'s sign-restricted SVAR(Structural Vector Auto-Regression) model is used. The empirical results are as follows: the bank's interest rate margin increases, the capital ratio improves, risk-weighted asset ratio increases, and the amount of loans increases in response to expansionary monetary shock. This empirical results confirm that bank capital channel and risk-taking channel work in domestic banks, similar to the previous research results. The implications of this study are as follows. Although the expansionary monetary policy has the effect of improving the bank's financial soundness and profitability in the short term as bank capital channel works, it could negatively affect the soundness of banks by encouraging banks to pursue risk in the long run as risk-taking channel works. It is necessary to note that the capital ratio according to the BIS minimum capital requirement of individual banks may cause an illusion in supervising the soundness of the bank. So, the bank's aggressive lending expansion may lead to an inherent weakness in the event of a crisis. Since the financial authority may have an illusion about the bank's financial soundness if the low interest rate persists, the authority needs to be actively interested in stress tests and concentration risk management in the pillar 2 of the BIS capital accord. In addition, since system risk may increase, it is necessary to conduct regular stress tests or preemptive monitoring of assets concentration risk.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.667-694
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• 2018

We analyze the learning-by-doing effects of the allowance pricing system on the Korea's emission trading scheme. The price of allowance (Korean Allowance Unit) is influenced differently by internal market factors and economic conditions variables in the first (January 2015 to June 2016 ) and the second commitment year(January 2016 to June 2017). The prices and transaction volumes of complementary credits (KCU and KOC) as well as economic conditions variables (such as call rate, exchange rate, stock price) are statistically significant only for the second commitment year. Thus, the learning-by-doing effect makes the market participation decision on K-ETS market more efficient in the second commitment year, adopting the previous experience and knowledge in the K-ETS market. The factors estimated significantly in both commitment periods include the institutional binary variable for requiring the submission of the emissions verification reports issued both on February and March.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.103-126
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• 2007

As a result of the development of heavy and chemical industries during the Economic Development Plan, Korean shipbuilding industry expanded its capacity rapidly and became a strategic export industry. The 1973 Arab oil crisis and the subsequent doubling of oil prices greatly reduced world demand for tankers and the market was crashed as numberous orders for tankers were cancelled in Japan and Europe. Under these circumstances, Korean Shipping industry also experienced a decrease in overseas demand for shipbuilding. The Korean government established the 'planned shipbuilding' scheme. The primary purpose of the scheme was to develop the shipbuilding industry, to link the industry to the shipping industry and to develop both industries together. However, Japanese shipping established goals linking with macro-national economic policy, such as saving foreign currencies and freight of importing goods, also assisting reconstruction and development of shipbuilding industry. To accomplish these goals, Japanese government used several policy tools such as financial assistance, law, guidance.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.585-600
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• 2012

The purpose of this study related to the liquidity impact of the housing market variables using vector auto-regressive model(VAR) and empirical analysis is to derive some policy implications. October 2003 until May 2012 using monthly data for liquidity variables mortgage rates, mortgage, financial liquidity, as the composite index and nation, Seoul, Gangnam, Gangbuk, the Apartment sales prices were analyzed. Granger Causality Test Results, mortgage rates and mortgage at a bargain price two regions had a strong causal relationship. Since the impulse response analysis, Geothermal difference there, but housing price housing price itself, the most significant ongoing positive (+) reactions were liquidity-related variables are mortgage loans is large and persistent positive (+), financial liquidity weakly positive (+), mortgage interest rates are negative (-), KOSPI, the negative (-) reacted. Liquidity and housing prices that the rise can be and Gangnam in Gangbuk is greater than the factor that housing investment was confirmed empirically. Government to consider the current economic situation, while maintaining low interest rates and liquidity of the market rather than the real estate industry must ensure that activities can be embedded and local enforcement policies should be differentiated according to the policy will be able to reap significant effect.

• The tire
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• s.124
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• pp.2-8
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• 1986

본자료는 최근 KOTRA에서 "3 저시대"의 호기를 효과적으로 활용하는 방안을 제시하기 위하여, 우리나라의 수출비중이 큰 주요수출대상국에 대해서 현지의 시장개척활동 중 나타난 사례를 중심으로, 엔화강세 및 유가하락에 따른 한일양국간의 수출경쟁력을 비교분석한 자료에서 특히, 6대 주요수출대상국(미국,일본,캐나다,영국,서독,인도네시아)만을 선정하여 타이어 및 튜브에 관한 내용을 발췌요약한 것이다. 최근 국제석유가격의 하락, 달러화의 약세 및 엔화의 강세, 국제금리의 하락추세 등 이른바 "3저시대"의 도래와 함께 우리나라 경제는 지난 2년간 겪어온 불황의 늪에서 벗어나 새로운 도약의 계기를 마련할 수 있는 중대한 국면을 맞이하였다. 그러나 3 저의 효과는 우리나라만 누리는 혜택이 아니라, 다른 경쟁국들도 정도의 차이는 있지만, 공통으로 누리게 되며, 또한 3저의 영향은 우리나라의 수출에 이로운 점만 있는 것이 아니라 불리한 점도 있는 것이다. 따라서 이러한 좋은 기회를 어떻게 최대한 효과적으로 활용하느냐가 중요한 문제인 것이다.