• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.1467-1471
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• 2009

홍수사상은 크게 첨두홍수량, 홍수용적, 지속기간 등과 같은 서로 상관된 세 가지 요소로 구성되어 있다. 그러나 그동안 홍수의 규모와 크기를 판단하고 예측하기 위하여 수행되어 온 홍수빈도 해석에서는, 서로 상관되어있는 요소들 간의 관계를 고려하지 않은 채 주로 첨두홍수량 하나만을 가지고 단변량 빈도 해석을 수행하였다. 이와 같은 단변량 홍수빈도 해석은 특정 홍수의 특성을 종합적으로 표현하는 데 한계를 가지고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 홍수빈도 해석에 있어 첨두홍수량뿐만 아닌 홍수용적까지도 함께 고려하였다. 소양강댐의 35개년 일유입량 자료를 대상으로 홍수사상을 각각의 강우량 자료와 연계하여 분리한 후 Gumbel 혼합모형을 적용하여 이변량 홍수빈도 해석을 수행함으로써 과거의 극한 홍수사상을 평가 분석하였다. 이변량 빈도해석을 수행하여 홍수사상 요소들 간의 결합분포, 결합 재현기간 등을 추정하였다. 단변량 홍수빈도 해석 결과와 비교함으로써 특정 홍수에 대한 홍수심도를 분석하는 등 극한 홍수사상 평가를 위한 이변량 홍수빈도 해석기법의 적용성에 관하여 검토하였다. 이러한 연구 결과는 기존의 제방 중심 치수사업의 대안으로 제시된 유역종합치수계획에서 선정된 다양한 홍수방어 시설들의 설계 및 운영, 치수효과 평가 등에 유용하게 적용될 수 있을 것이다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.410-410
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• 2022

기후변화에 관한 정부간 협의체(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)에서는 지난해부터 제6차 평가보고서(Sixth Assessment Report, AR6)를 준비하고 있으며, 최근 Working Group II에서 수행한 기후변화 영향, 적응 및 취약성(Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability) 보고서를 공개하였다. 보고서는 기존의 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 시나리오에 사회경제적 조건을 추가로 고려한 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 시나리오를 제시하였고, 세계기후연구프로그램(World Climate Research Programme, WCRP)의 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)에서 제공하는 6단계(Phase 6) 미래 전망 자료를 적용하였다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화로 인한 미래 극한 강우량의 통계적 특성을 파악하기 위하여 CMIP6에서 제공하는 General Circulation Models (GCMs) 기반 미래 강우자료를 수집하여 부산광역시를 중심으로 분석하였다. 4개의 SSP (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) 시나리오별로 10개 GCMs의 모의 결과를 사용하였다. Gumbel 분포형과 확률가중모멘트법을 이용하여 미래 극한 강우량을 산정하였고, 현재 모의기간(S0, 1983-2014) 대비 미래 전망기간(S1, 2015-2044; S2, 2041-2070; S3, 2071-2100)의 변화를 재현기간(return period, T)별로 분석하여 제시하였다.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.5-16
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• 1998

In order to study the behavior of the sheet pile under vertical load in sands, model pile tests using calibration chamber are performed. For this research, five model piles, with the same section area and different degree of inclination of flange, were made. And model pile tests were conducted for each of these piles with different relative density and direction of applied load. For model pile which has the same shape, compression capacity is about 100% higher than pullout capacity and the difference increases with increasing relative density. Pullout ultimate capacity and corresponding displacement increase with increasing relative density and the pullout capacities remained almost the same irrespective of the inclination of flanges for the same density. The ultimate capacity under compression load is highest at 30$^{\circ}$ of inclination of flanges and the trend is more evident with increasing relative density. From the analysis of load distribution, the higher loading capacity at 30$^{\circ}$ of inclination of flanges with same section area may be attributed to the partial soil plug between flanges.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.377-389
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• 2011

A higher quality level is generally perceived by customers as improved performance by assigning a correspondingly higher satisfaction score. The third generation index $C_{pmk}$ is more powerful than two useful indices $C_p$ and $C_{pk}$ that have been widely used in six sigma industries to assess process performance. In actual manufacturing industries, process capability analysis often entails characterizing or assessing processes or products based on more than one engineering specification or quality characteristic. Since these characteristics are related, it is a risky undertaking to represent the variation of even a univariate characteristic by a single index. Therefore, the desirability of using vector-valued process capability index(PCI) arises quite naturally. In this paper, we consider more powerful vector-valued process capability index $C_{pmk}$ = ($C_{pmkx}$, $C_{pmky}$)$^t$ that consider the univariate process capability index $C_{pmk}$. First, we examine the process capability index $C_{pmk}$ and plug-in estimator $\hat{C}_{pmk}$. In addition, we derive its asymptotic distribution and variance-covariance matrix $V_{pmk}$ for the vector valued process capability index $C_{pmk}$. Under the assumption of bivariate normal distribution, we study asymptotic confidence regions of our vector-valued process capability index $C_{pmk}$ = ($C_{pmkx}$, $C_{pmky}$)$^t$.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.32 no.2A
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• pp.85-95
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• 2012

This paper presents an investigation on the ultimate behavior of steel cable-stayed bridges using nonlinear finite element analysis method. Cable-stayed bridges exhibit various geometric nonlinearities as well as material nonlinearities, so rational nonlinear finite element analysis should be performed for investigation of the ultimate behavior. In this study, ultimate behavior of steel cable-stayed bridges was studied using rational ultimate analysis method. Nonlinear equivalent truss element and nonlinear frame element were used for modeling the cable, girder and mast. Moreover, refined plastic hinge method was adopted for considering the material nonlinearity of steel members. In this study, the 2-step analysis method was used. Before live load analysis, initial shape analysis was performed in order to consider the dead load condition. For investigation of the ultimate behavior of steel cable-stayed bridges, analysis models which span length is 920.0 m were used. Radiating type and fan type were considered as the cable-arrangement types. With various quantitative evidences such as load-displacement curves, deformed shapes, locations of the yield point or region, bending moment distribution and so on, the ultimate behavior of steel cable-stayed bridges was investigated and described in this paper.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.263-274
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• 2012

Recently, due to various climate variabilities, extreme rainfall events have been occurring all over the world. Extreme rainfall events in Korea mainly result from the summer typhoon storms and the localized convective storms. In order to estimate appropriate quantiles for extreme rainfall, this study considered the probability behavior of daily rainfall from the typhoons and the convective storms which compose the annual maximum rainfalls (AMRs). The conventional rainfall frequency analysis estimates rainfall quantiles based on the assumption that the AMRs are extracted from an identified single population, whereas this study employed a mixed distribution function to incorporate the different statistical characteristics of two types of rainfalls into the hydrologic frequency analysis. Selecting 15 rainfall gauge stations where contain comparatively large number of measurements of daily rainfall, for various return periods, quantiles of daily rainfalls were estimated and analyzed in this study. The results indicate that the mixed Gumbel distribution locally results in significant gains and losses in quantiles. This would provide useful information in designing flood protection systems.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.46 no.11
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• pp.1089-1101
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• 2013

The study uses a regional climate model to check future changes in extreme climate, to calculate extreme indexes presented by STARDEX, and to analyze the trends to predict the continuity and changes in the spatial distribution of extreme climate in the future. An analysis of extreme climate indices showed that they are likely to increase in the Seoul metropolitan area, in Gyeonggi-do, in Yongdong in Gangwon-do, and in the southern shore region of Korea. It is, however, forecasted to diminish in the central inland region. The analysis also showed that the average temperature in Korea will increase because of climate change. On the other hand, an analysis of extreme rainfall indexes showed that the trend of heavy rainfall threshold is 0.229 in Seogwipo, the greatest five-day rainfall is 5.692 in Seogwipo, and the longest dry period is 0.099 in Sokcho. Of extreme temperature indexes, the trend of Hotdays threshold is 0.777 in Incheon and the longest heat wave is 0.162 in Uljin. The Coldnight threshold is 0.075 in Inje and -0.193 in Tongyeong, according to the analysis.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.387-387
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• 2020

본 연구에서는 LIP에 의한 극한강우로부터 발생되는 극한홍수량을 산정한다. Huff 형 강우시간 분포를 기후변화 시나리오별로 적용하고, 원전주변지역에서의 상세한 토지이용조건의 변화를 고려하여 빈도별 홍수량을 산정한다. 외부침수해석의 정교화를 위한 상세 지형자료를 구축하고, 원자력발전소 부지의 상세 DEM 자료를 생성한다. 이를 위해서 원자력발전소 부지에서 건물, 연석, 도로 등의 영향을 분석하고 토지이용상황에 따른 조도계수를 산정한다. 또한 원전지역에서의 외부침수재해도 분석을 위해서 국립해양조사원에서 검토한 기후변화를 고려한 조위분석 자료를 외부경계조건으로 설정한 후 부지에 대한 2차원 수리분석을 실시한다. 침수심, 침수유속, 침수시간, 침수동압력 분석 등 2차원 침수해석결과를 바탕으로 발생빈도별 침수심, 침수강도 등의 정량적인 분석을 통해서 빈도별 재해도 곡선을 개발한다. 그리고 원전지역에서의 외부 침수에 대한 대표적인 재해도 곡선을 산정하기 위하여 재현기간별 지속시간에 따른 침수심을 분석하고 정리한다. 재현기간별 침수심에 대해 확률 분포형을 적용하기 위해서 AIC검증을 통한 분포형의 적합성을 분석을 실시한다. 또한 재현기간별 지속시간에 따른 침수심들 간의 상관관계를 분석하여 분포형에 적용한다. 적용된 분포형을 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션을 통한 대표적인 확률론적 외부 침수 재해도 곡선을 산정한다. 본 연구를 바탕으로 원전 부지 및 그 부속 시설물(SSC)의 홍수방지 기능과 홍수 대비 시설물에 대한 적용 절차의 신뢰성, 홍수 저감 및 대응 전략에 대한 정량화가 가능하여 원전 홍수 위험에 대한 정량적인 평가 지원이 가능하겠다. 고려할 외부 홍수와 관련된 원전 내부시설 및 장비에 대한 상세한 모델링 절차, 특정 시나리오에 대한 홍수 방지 및 예방과 관련한 SSC의 정량화, 홍수저감 활동과 관련된 통제실 외부 시설물에 대한 수동 조작에 대한 평가가 이루어질 수 있겠다.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.3A
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• pp.199-207
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• 2009

In this paper, new vehicular load model is developed for reliability-based bridge design code. Rational load model and statistical properties of loads are important for developing reliability-based design code. In the previous paper, truck weight data collected at eight locations using WIM or BWIM system are analyzed to calculate the maximum truck weights for specified bridge lifetime. Probability distributions of upper 20% total truck weight are assumed as Extreme Type I (Gumbel Distribution) and 100 years maximum weights are estimated by linear regression. In this study, effects of multiple presence of trucks are analyzed. Probability of multiple presence of trucks are estimated and corresponding multiple truck weights are calculated using the same probability distribution function as in the previous paper. New vehicular live load model are proposed for span length from 10 m to 200 m. New model is compared with current Korean model and various load models of other countries.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.3A
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• pp.189-197
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• 2009

In this study, truck weight data and load effects of single truck on bridges are analyzed for development of new vehicular load model of the reliability-based bridge design code. Rational load model and statistical properties of loads are important for developing reliability-based design code. In this study, truck weight data collected at four locations are used as well as data from four locations in other studies. Truck weight data are collected from WIM or BWIM system, which are known to give reliable data. Typical truck types, dimensions and axle weight distribution are determined. Probability distributions of upper 20% total truck weight are assumed as Extreme Type I and 100 years maximum truck weights are estimated by linear regression on the probability paper. The load effects of trucks having estimated maximum weights are analyzed for span length from 10 m to 200 m.