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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2013.46.11.1089

Change Projection of Extreme Indices using RCP Climate Change Scenario  

Jeung, Se-Jin (Department of Urban& Environmental Disaster Prevention Engineering, Kangwon National University)
Sung, Jang Hyun (Transport and Maritime Affairs, Yeongsan Flood Control Office)
Kim, Byung-Sik (Department of Urban & Environmental Disaster Prevention Engineering, Kangwon National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.46, no.11, 2013 , pp. 1089-1101 More about this Journal
Abstract
The study uses a regional climate model to check future changes in extreme climate, to calculate extreme indexes presented by STARDEX, and to analyze the trends to predict the continuity and changes in the spatial distribution of extreme climate in the future. An analysis of extreme climate indices showed that they are likely to increase in the Seoul metropolitan area, in Gyeonggi-do, in Yongdong in Gangwon-do, and in the southern shore region of Korea. It is, however, forecasted to diminish in the central inland region. The analysis also showed that the average temperature in Korea will increase because of climate change. On the other hand, an analysis of extreme rainfall indexes showed that the trend of heavy rainfall threshold is 0.229 in Seogwipo, the greatest five-day rainfall is 5.692 in Seogwipo, and the longest dry period is 0.099 in Sokcho. Of extreme temperature indexes, the trend of Hotdays threshold is 0.777 in Incheon and the longest heat wave is 0.162 in Uljin. The Coldnight threshold is 0.075 in Inje and -0.193 in Tongyeong, according to the analysis.
Keywords
regional climate model; STARDEX; extreme indices; trend analysis;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 5  (Citation Analysis)
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