• Title/Summary/Keyword: 규모 예측

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Regional Characteristics of Global Warming: Linear Projection for the Timing of Unprecedented Climate (지구온난화의 지역적 특성: 전례 없는 기후 시기에 대한 선형 전망)

  • SHIN, HO-JEONG;JANG, CHAN JOO
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.49-57
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    • 2016
  • Even if an external forcing that will drive a climate change is given uniformly over the globe, the corresponding climate change and the feedbacks by the climate system differ by region. Thus the detection of global warming signal has been made on a regional scale as well as on a global average against the internal variabilities and other noises involved in the climate change. The purpose of this study is to estimate a timing of unprecedented climate due to global warming and to analyze the regional differences in the estimated results. For this purpose, unlike previous studies that used climate simulation data, we used an observational dataset to estimate a magnitude of internal variability and a future temperature change. We calculated a linear trend in surface temperature using a historical temperature record from 1880 to 2014 and a magnitude of internal variability as the largest temperature displacement from the linear trend. A timing of unprecedented climate was defined as the first year when a predicted minimum temperature exceeds the maximum temperature record in a historical data and remains as such since then. Presumed that the linear trend and the maximum displacement will be maintained in the future, an unprecedented climate over the land would come within 200 years from now in the western area of Africa, the low latitudes including India and the southern part of Arabian Peninsula in Eurasia, the high latitudes including Greenland and the mid-western part of Canada in North America, the low latitudes including Amazon in South America, the areas surrounding the Ross Sea in Antarctica, and parts of East Asia including Korean Peninsula. On the other hand, an unprecedented climate would come later after 400 years in the high latitudes of Eurasia including the northern Europe, the middle and southern parts of North America including the U.S.A. and Mexico. For the ocean, an unprecedented climate would come within 200 years over the Indian Ocean, the middle latitudes of the North Atlantic and the South Atlantic, parts of the Southern Ocean, the Antarctic Ross Sea, and parts of the Arctic Sea. In the meantime, an unprecedented climate would come even after thousands of years over some other regions of ocean including the eastern tropical Pacific and the North Pacific middle latitudes where an internal variability is large. In summary, spatial pattern in timing of unprecedented climate are different for each continent. For the ocean, it is highly affected by large internal variability except for the high-latitude regions with a significant warming trend. As such, a timing of an unprecedented climate would not be uniform over the globe but considerably different by region. Our results suggest that it is necessary to consider an internal variability as well as a regional warming rate when planning a climate change mitigation and adaption policy.

Sensitivity of Simulated Water Temperature to Vertical Mixing Scheme and Water Turbidity in the Yellow Sea (수직 혼합 모수화 기법과 탁도에 따른 황해 수온 민감도 실험)

  • Kwak, Myeong-Taek;Seo, Gwang-Ho;Choi, Byoung-Ju;Kim, Chang-Sin;Cho, Yang-Ki
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.111-121
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    • 2013
  • Accurate prediction of sea water temperature has been emphasized to make precise local weather forecast and to understand change of ecosystem. The Yellow Sea, which has turbid water and strong tidal current, is an unique shallow marginal sea. It is essential to include the effects of the turbidity and the strong tidal mixing for the realistic simulation of temperature distribution in the Yellow Sea. Evaluation of ocean circulation model response to vertical mixing scheme and turbidity is primary objective of this study. Three-dimensional ocean circulation model(Regional Ocean Modeling System) was used to perform numerical simulations. Mellor- Yamada level 2.5 closure (M-Y) and K-Profile Parameterization (KPP) scheme were selected for vertical mixing parameterization in this study. Effect of Jerlov water type 1, 3 and 5 was also evaluated. The simulated temperature distribution was compared with the observed data by National Fisheries Research and Development Institute to estimate model's response to turbidity and vertical mixing schemes in the Yellow Sea. Simulations with M-Y vertical mixing scheme produced relatively stronger vertical mixing and warmer bottom temperature than the observation. KPP scheme produced weaker vertical mixing and did not well reproduce tidal mixing front along the coast. However, KPP scheme keeps bottom temperature closer to the observation. Consequently, numerical ocean circulation simulations with M-Y vertical mixing scheme tends to produce well mixed vertical temperature structure and that with KPP vertical mixing scheme tends to make stratified vertical temperature structure. When Jerlov water type is higher, sea surface temperature is high and sea bottom temperature is low because downward shortwave radiation is almost absorbed near the sea surface.

Impact of Sulfur Dioxide Impurity on Process Design of $CO_2$ Offshore Geological Storage: Evaluation of Physical Property Models and Optimization of Binary Parameter (이산화황 불순물이 이산화탄소 해양 지중저장 공정설계에 미치는 영향 평가: 상태량 모델의 비교 분석 및 이성분 매개변수 최적화)

  • Huh, Cheol;Kang, Seong-Gil;Cho, Mang-Ik
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.187-197
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    • 2010
  • Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage(CCS) is regarded as one of the most promising options to response climate change. CCS is a three-stage process consisting of the capture of carbon dioxide($CO_2$), the transport of $CO_2$ to a storage location, and the long term isolation of $CO_2$ from the atmosphere for the purpose of carbon emission mitigation. Up to now, process design for this $CO_2$ marine geological storage has been carried out mainly on pure $CO_2$. Unfortunately the $CO_2$ mixture captured from the power plants and steel making plants contains many impurities such as $N_2$, $O_2$, Ar, $H_2O$, $SO_2$, $H_2S$. A small amount of impurities can change the thermodynamic properties and then significantly affect the compression, purification, transport and injection processes. In order to design a reliable $CO_2$ marine geological storage system, it is necessary to analyze the impact of these impurities on the whole CCS process at initial design stage. The purpose of the present paper is to compare and analyse the relevant physical property models including BWRS, PR, PRBM, RKS and SRK equations of state, and NRTL-RK model which are crucial numerical process simulation tools. To evaluate the predictive accuracy of the equation of the state for $CO_2-SO_2$ mixture, we compared numerical calculation results with reference experimental data. In addition, optimum binary parameter to consider the interaction of $CO_2$ and $SO_2$ molecules was suggested based on the mean absolute percent error. In conclusion, we suggest the most reliable physical property model with optimized binary parameter in designing the $CO_2-SO_2$ mixture marine geological storage process.

Modeling on the Sorption Kinetics of Lead and Cadmium onto Natural Sediments (퇴적물에서의 납과 카드뮴의 흡착 동력학 모델링)

  • Kwak, Mun-Yong;Ko, Seok-Oh;Park, Jae-Woo;Jeong, Yeon-Gu;Shin, Won-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.39 no.4 s.118
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    • pp.450-461
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    • 2006
  • In this study, sorption kinetics of lead (Pb) and cadmium (Cd) onto coastal sediments were investigated at pH 5.5 using laboratory batch adsorbers. Four different models: one-site mass transfer model (OSMTM), pseudo-first-order kinetic model (PFOKM) ,pseudo-second-order kinetic model (PSOKM) and two compartment first-order kinetic model (TCFOKM) were used to analyze the sorption kinetics. As expected from the number of model parameters involved, the three-parameter TCFOKM was better than the two-parameter OSMTM, PFOKM and PSOKM in describing sorption kinetics of Pb and Cd onto sediments. Most sorption of Pb and Cd was rapidly completed within the first three hours, followed by slow sorption in the subsequent period of sorption. All models predicted that the sorbed amount at the apparent sorption ($q_{e,s}$) equilibria increased as the CEC and surface area of the sediments increased, regardless of initial spiking concentration ($C_0$) and heavy metal and the sediment type. The sorption rate constant ($k_s,\;hr^{-1}$) in OSMTM also increased as the CEC and BET surface area increased. The rate constant of pseudo-first-order sorption ($k_{p1,s},\;hr^{-1}$) in PFOKM were not correlated with sediment characteristics. The results of PSOKM analysis showed that the rate constant of pseudo-second-order sorption ($k_{p2,s},\;g\;mmol^{-1}\;hr^{-1}$) and the initial sorption rate ($v_{o,s},\;mg\;g^{-1}\;hr^{-1}$) were not correlated with sediment characteristics. The fast sorption fraction ($f_{1,s}$) in TCFOKM increased as CEC and BET surface increased regardless of initial aqueous phase concentrations. The sorption rate constant of fast fraction ($k_{1,s}=10^{0.1}-10^{1.0}\;hr^{-1}$) was much greater than that of slow sorption fraction ($k_{2,s}=10^{-2}-10^{-4}\;hr^{-1}$) respectively.

Protection for sea-water intrusion by geophysical prospecting & GIS (해수침투 방지를 위한 물리검층과 GIS 활용방안)

  • Han Kyu-Eon;Yi Sang-Sun;Jeong Cha-Youn
    • 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2000.09a
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    • pp.54-69
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    • 2000
  • There are groundwater trouble by high-salinity yield inducing sea-water intrusion in Cheju Island. It is used groundwater-GIS(Well-lnfo) in the maintenance and management of groundwater in Cheju Island to grasp groundwater trouble area and cause of high-salinity yield. For 16 wells certain to yield high-salinity, we logged specific electrical conductivity(EC) and tried to get hold of freshwater and saltwater relationship. As result of distribution of $Cl^-$ by depth, it is showed up groundwater trouble by high-salinity yield in the east coastal area and the partly north coastal area. The reason of high-salinity groundwater yield are low-groundwater level by the structure of geology and low-hydraulic gradient etc. There is necessity for management to development and use of groundwater in the high-salinity area, special management area.

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멕시코 로얄 은광산 잠재성 평가

  • Heo, Cheol-Ho;Kim, Ui-Jun
    • 한국지구과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2010.04a
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    • pp.108-109
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    • 2010
  • IMPACT Silver 주식회사는 Zacualpan 프로젝트의 Royal Mines(이하 로얄 광산)을 인수했다. $124.5\;km^2$에 해당하는 지역의 소유권은 두 개의 멕시코 사기업으로부터 가행중인 광산의 채굴권 구입과 운영 중인 기반시설의 임대를 조건으로 한다. 프로젝트 지역은 멕시코시티로부터 남서방향으로 100 km와 Taxco Silver 광산으로부터 북서방향으로 25 km 떨어진 지점에 위치한다. 기반시설은 비포장 도로, 충분한 전력과 물의 공급 및 숙련공들을 갖추어 우수한 평가를 받고 있다. 소유권은 멕시코인의 개인소유 하에서 무한한 매장량 혹은 자원량을 갖고 운영된 채광과 가공시설을 인수하는 것이다. 소유권 지역을 대상으로 한 IMPACT Silver사의 주 탐사목적은 이미 알려진 광화대의 확장을 위한 잠재성 평가와 다른 지역에서 신규 광상의 유망지역을 발견하는 것이다. Zacualpan 프로젝트의 로얄 광산은 남동 Guerrero terrane의 북부에 위치한다. Teloloapan subterrane은 주로 저변성 녹색편암상으로 구성된 쥬라기 후기에서 백악기 초기의 화산성 퇴적층으로 구성된다. 대부분의 유망지역은 Lower Villa de Ayala층의 중성 내지 염기성 화산성 쇄설암을 모암으로 한다. 다상의 변성작용은 지역 전반에 걸쳐 나타나고, Zacualpan 광산지역에서 수반되는 광화작용을 규제한다. Zacualpan 광산지역은 Sierra Madre del Sur로 알려진 유망 광화대에 해당한다. 이 지역은 화산성 괴상 황화광상과 천열수 맥상광상이 우세하다. 대부분의 천열수 광화작용은 3.2-3.8억 년 전 마그마의 생성이 활발한 판구조 체제 동안 발생하였다. 역사적으로 가장 주요한 지역은 Lipton Vein이다. 현재 Zacualpan 지구에서 채광량은 은 200-500 g/t 정도로 보고되고 있다. 일부 지역은 고품위 은 광화작용(은 1,000 g/t 이상)을 수반하고 있으며, 이는 탐사의 주 타겟이 되고 있다. Zacualpan에서 은 광화작용은 은이 부화된 중유황 천열수 맥상광상으로 상당히 유명하다. Fresnillo, Pachuca 및 Taxco 광산을 포함한 멕시코 소유의 대규모의 잘 알려진 광산들이 이에 해당한다. 이러한 광산들은 부산물로서 금, 아연, 연이 생산된다. 이러한 광상들은 맥상과 각력상 및 산점상 또는 망상세맥의 형태로 산출된다. 광화작용은 석영과 탄산염 맥 내에 주로 황철석과 다양한 섬아연석, 방연석, 은 혹은 금 광물들을 수반한다. 경제성을 갖는 광화작용의 수직적인 연장은 평균적으로 대략 300 m이고, 멕시코 중부에 위치한 Fresnillo의 광화작용은 100 m에서 960 m의 연장을 갖는 것으로 알려져 있다. 아주 오랫동안 Zacualpan에서 광산관계자의 관측과 IMPACT Silver에서 최근 작업의 결과를 토대로, Zacualpan 광산지역의 탐사모델은 새로운 광상의 탐사를 위한 가이드로서 개발되었다. Zacualpan 광산지역에서 가장 높은 경제성을 갖는 광화작용은 북서와 남북방향의 맥 구조를 따라 수반된다. 이러한 맥 구조들은 종종 이 지역을 가로질러 수 km까지 추적되지만, 경제성을 갖는 광화작용은 맥 구조를 따라서 구조적으로 유리한 지역에서 부광대를 형성한다. 부광대를 형성하기 위한 가장 유리한 구조적 지역은 북서와 남북방향으로 발달한 맥 구조들이 교차하는 지역이다. 지난 30년간 채광된 주요 부광대는 폭이 2-6 m 이고 수평연장은 30-150 m 그리고 수직연장은 230-300 m에 이른다. 가장 높은 생산량을 보이는 부광대는 남북방향의 이차 맥들이 Guadalupe 광산의 Lipton 맥을 가로지르는 지역에서 발달한다. 남동쪽으로 현재 Compadres 광산의 Silver Shoot No. 1으로부터 고품위 은을 생산하는 지역은 북서방향의 San Agustin 맥이 북향의 Cometa Navideno 맥에 의해 절단되는 지역에서 산출한다. 모암은 광화작용을 규제하는 또 다른 중요한 요소이다. 광산지역에서 경제성을 갖는 모든 광화작용은 중성 내지 염기성 화산암 특히 안산암과 관련 모암에 배태된다. 부광대가 셰일 혹은 편암으로 전이되는 지역에서, 맥들은 소규모의 세맥으로 나뉘어 진다. Zacualpan의 전형적인 천열수 광상에서 부광대는 상부로 가면서 은의 함량이 증가하고, 하부로 가면서 연 아연의 함량이 증가하는 수직적 대상을 보인다. 금의 함량 변화는 보다 예측이 어려우나 상당히 중요하다. Zacualpan 광산지역의 탐사모델에 사용된 토양 채취, 정밀지도제작, 트렌치 및 시추탐광은 현재 IMPACT Silver사가 이 지역을 대상으로 한 가장 효율적인 탐사방법으로 입증되었다. Zacualpan 프로젝트의 로얄 광산은 하루 500 톤을 제련하는 기반시설과 수반된 채굴권을 갖는 가행 광산들을 포함한다. 현재 IMPACT Silver사는 두 곳의 타겟 지역에서 정밀지도제작, 토양 및 암석 채취, 12공 총 1866 m의 시추탐광에 의한 사전조사로 구성된 4 단계 탐사를 수행했다. 암석 1,953개, 토양 1,631 개, 389 개의 시추코어 시료가 채집되고 분석되었다. 이러한 작업은 추가탐사를 요구하는 수많은 유망 광화대를 규명했다. Compadres 광산에서 현재 가행중인 지하갱 시료는 레벨 1에서 0.9 m의 폭을 갖는 광체에서 은 680 g/t과 금 0.3 g/t, 레벨 3에서 1.67 m의 폭을 갖는 광체에서 은 12,591 g/t과 금 12.07 g/t의 품위를 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 레벨 1에서 3까지 2-3 m의 폭과 30-40 m 연장으로 채광되었다. 시추탐광은 고품위를 갖는 몇몇의 중첩된 맥을 발견했다. Compadres 광산에서 남동방향으로 200 m지점에 위치한 Soledad 지역에서 5 개의 시추공으로부터 동일 맥 시스템이 발견되었고, 고품위 부광대의 상부로 간주되는 몇몇 중요 지점이 발견되었다. 초기 단계의 탐사는 유망 시추탐광 지역인 중간정도 내지 고품위 유망 광화대를 규명했다.

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Comparison of Population Monitoring Methods for Breeding Forest Birds in Korean Temperate Mixed Forests (국내 온대 혼효림에 서식하는 산림성 조류의 번식기 개체군 모니터링 방법에 대한 비교)

  • Nam, Hyun-Young;Choi, Chang-Yong;Park, Jin-Young;Hur, Wee-Haeng
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.108 no.4
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    • pp.663-674
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    • 2019
  • Birds are effective ecological indicators but there is no national protocol in place to monitor population dynamics of forest birds in Korea. To support the establishment of future monitoring protocols, we compared the results of two generally used monitoring methods for forest bird surveys in two temperate mixed forests in central Korea. There was no statistical difference in the number of species and individuals detected per unit survey effort when comparing line transects and point counts. The number of species and individuals were higher in a five-minute count than in a three-minute point count, but the total accumulated number of expected observed species showed no difference between the two count durations. The number of observed species and individuals increased in both methods as plot radius or transect width increased, suggesting that multi-layer or multi-band surveys may be useful for quantitative and qualitative objectives. The decreasing number of observed species and individuals after sunrise suggested that bird monitoring should be conducted earlier in the morning, within four hours after sunrise. To detect 70% of the total number of species, 7.0 to 7.6 survey hours, equivalent to 42 three-minute counts (95% confidence interval [CI]: 26 to 61) or 33 five-minute counts (95% CI: 19 to 53) were needed for unlimited radius point counts. On the other hand, 4.8 survey hours, equivalent to 26 line transect counts (95% CI: 15 to 45) using 200-m transects with unlimited width, were required to achieve the same level of species detection. Therefore, the line transect method may be more effective than the point count method, at least in terms of local species richness assessment. For national forest bird monitoring, our data indicated that one or both survey methods can be selected as a basic protocol, based on the goals and scales of monitoring, forest types, and the conditions of the target areas.

Derivation of rock parameters from Televiewer data (텔레뷰어에 의한 토목설계 매개변수의 산출)

  • Kim Jung-Yul;Kim Yoo-Sung
    • 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1999.08a
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    • pp.137-155
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    • 1999
  • Recently, Televiewer(Borehole Acoustic Scanner(Televiewer)) has come to be widely used specially for the general engineering construction design. The Televiewer tool using a focussed acoustic beam is to detect the amplitude and traveltime of each reflected acoustic signal at the wall, resulting in the amplitude- and traveltime image respectively. Fractures can be well detected, because they easily scatter the acoustic energy due to the highly narrow beam. In addition, the drilling work will rough the borehole wall so that the acoustic energy can be scattered simply due to the roughness of the wall. Thus, the amplitude level can be directed associated with the elastic properties(impedance) and the hardness of the rock as well. Meanwhile, the traveltime image provides an information about the borehole shape and can be converted to a high precision 3D caliper log(max. 288 arms). In this paper, based on the high resolution of Televiewer images, general evaluation methods are illustrated to derive very reliable rock parameters.

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Discounted Cost Model of Condition-Based Maintenance Regarding Cumulative Damage of Armor Units of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters as a Discrete-Time Stochastic Process (경사제 피복재의 누적피해를 이산시간 확률과정으로 고려한 조건기반 유지관리의 할인비용모형)

  • Lee, Cheol-Eung;Park, Dong-Heon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.109-120
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    • 2017
  • A discounted cost model for preventive maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters is mathematically derived by combining the deterioration model based on a discrete-time stochastic process of shock occurrence with the cost model of renewal process together. The discounted cost model of condition-based maintenance proposed in this paper can take into account the nonlinearity of cumulative damage process as well as the discounting effect of cost. By comparing the present results with the previous other results, the verification is carried out satisfactorily. In addition, it is known from the sensitivity analysis on variables related to the model that the more often preventive maintenance should be implemented, the more crucial the level of importance of system is. However, the tendency is shown in reverse as the interest rate is increased. Meanwhile, the present model has been applied to the armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters. The parameters of damage intensity function have been estimated through the time-dependent prediction of the expected cumulative damage level obtained from the sample path method. In particular, it is confirmed that the shock occurrences can be considered to be a discrete-time stochastic process by investigating the effects of uncertainty of the shock occurrences on the expected cumulative damage level with homogeneous Poisson process and doubly stochastic Poisson process that are the continuous-time stochastic processes. It can be also seen that the stochastic process of cumulative damage would depend directly on the design conditions, thus the preventive maintenance would be varied due to those. Finally, the optimal periods and scale for the preventive maintenance of armor units of rubble-mound breakwaters can be quantitatively determined with the failure limits, the levels of importance of structure, and the interest rates.

The Role of the Endometrium and Embryo in Human Implantation (인간 착상 과정에 자궁내막과 배아의 역할)

  • Jee, Byung-Chul
    • Development and Reproduction
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2009
  • Implantation itself is governed by an array of endocrine, paracrine and autocrine modulators, of embryonic and maternal origin. Window of implantation is the unique temporal and spatial expression of factors allows the embryo to implant via signaling, appositioning, attachment, and invasion in a specific time frame of $2{\sim}4$ days. When the embryo has arrived in the uterine cavity, a preprogrammed sequence of events occurs, which involves the production and secretion of a multitude of biochemical factors such as cytokines, growth factors, and adhesion molecules by the endometrium and the embryo, thus leading to the formation of a receptive endometrium. Cytokines such as LIF, CSF-1, and IL-1 have all been shown to play important roles in the cascade of events that leads to implantation. Integrin, L-selectin ligands, glycodelin, mucin-1, HB-EGF and pinopodes are involved in appositioning and attachment. The embryo also produces cytokines and growth factors (ILs, VEGF) and receptors for endometrial signals such as LIF, CSF-1, IGF and HB-EGF. The immune system and angiogenesis play an important role. The usefulness of these factors to assess endometrial receptivity and to estimate the prognosis for pregnancy in natural and artificial cycles remains to be proven. Integrins, pinopodes, glycodelin and LIF (from biopsies) are promising candidates; from uterine flushings, glycodelin and LIF are also candidates. The ideal serum marker is not available, but VEGF, glycodelin and CSF have some clinical implications. Further evaluation that includes larger groups of infertile women and fertile controls are needed to elucidate whether their presence in plasma, flushing fluid, or endometrial samples can be used as some kind of a screening tool to assess endometrial function and prognosis for pregnancy before and after artificial reproductive therapy. A better understanding of their function in human implantation may lead to therapeutic intervention, thereby improving the success rate in reproduction treatment. New molecular techniques are becoming available for measuring both embryonic and endometrial changes prior to and during implantation. The use of predictive sets of markers may prove to be more reliable than a single marker. Ultimately, the aim is to use these tools to increase implantation in artificial cycles and consequently improve live-birth rates.

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