• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.1-16
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• 1987

This work examines reemployment processes through the use of event history unemployment data in the United States. Two aspects of these processes, the duration of unemployment and changes in the reemployment rate, are modelled and analyzed in terms of individual characteristics and their structural positions in the labor market. The secondary labor market is a competitive market in which unemployment occurs because people quit their jobs to devote more time in search for better jobs. Using search theory, the rate of reemployment has a positive time dependence as the searcher lower her reservation wage with the passage of time. By contrast, the primary market is characterized by long-term employment relations which reduce voluntary turnovers but generate layoffs temporarily. Relying on contract theory, because workers on temporary layoffs wait for recall, reemployment rates have a constant time dependence. Empirical results of unemployment durations indicate that reemployment processes are influenced by individual's positions in dual labor market structures. While the analysis suggests that the amount of search reemployment seems to be positively related to the degree of competitiveness of a market, somewhat weaker results are noted in the search reemployment processes in competitive markets.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.43-66
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• 1997

This work examines reemployment processes through the use of event history unemployment data in the United States. Two aspects of these processes, the duration of unemployment and changes in the reemployment rate, are modelled and analyzed in terms of individual characteristics and their structural positions in the labor market. The secondary labor market is a competitive market in which unemployment occurs because people quit their jobs to devote more time in search for better jobs. Using search theory, the rate of reemployment has a positive time dependence as the searcher lower her reservation wage with the passage of time. By contrast, the primary market is characterized by long-term employment relations which reduce voluntary turnovers but generate layoffs temporarily. Relying on contract theory, because workers on temporary layoffs wait for recall, reemployment rates have a constant time dependence. Empirical results of unemployment durations indicate that reemployment processes are influenced by individual's positions in dual labor market structures. While the analysis suggests that the amount of search reemployment seems to be positively related to the degree of competitiveness of a market, somewhat weaker results are noted in the search reemployment processes in competitive markets.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.36
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• pp.229-257
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• 1998

In order to evaluate the effects of high unemployment rates on the income distribution and to find out mediative factors to these effect, the relationship between unemployment and income inequality in the industrialized countries and determinants of their relationship are analysized in this paper. Major findings from the analysis are these. First, changing pattern of unemployment rates are not similiar that of income inequality in the industrialized countries. This result suggests that relationships between unemployment and income inequality are dissimiliar within the industrialized countries. Second, results from analysis about relevant factors' effect on the relationship between unemployment and income inequality, the effects of economic factors such as economic growth rates and the scale of economy are not significant. But variables such as union density rates and scale of social welfare expenditure are found to have significant effects on the relationship between unemployment and income inequality. In fact, when the policy factors enters, the negative distributional effects of unemployment are lower by 50%. These results impliy that dissmilarities between the industrialized countries in the 1980s' changing patterns of income inequality are engendered from the union density rates and scale of social welfare expenditure. These findings in this paper suggest such a implication to the Korea; In order to achieve the more deserable society, policy orientations which give the priority to the economy restructuring rather than development of social welfare have to be reexamined and modified.

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.31 no.2
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• pp.79-100
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• 2015

In spite of the various government policies to increase the jobs and to improve the employment environment, the unemployment rate has not reduced. The aims of this study are to analyze the structural mismatch(especially geographical mismatch) between job opening and job seeking, and thus to comprehend more deeply the factors affecting unemployment rates of economic regions in Korea. For the period of 2008~2013, the unemployment rates caused by geographical mismatches between job opening and job seeking have been increased steadily. For Chungcheong, Dongnam and Honam economic region, geographical mismatches of low-educated and low-skilled jobs showed relatively quite high, indicating that the job seeker have a strong tendency of preferring certain areas in looking for their jobs. It means that the job seeker can get a job only to move the other areas within an economic region. However, for Capital region, which is the largest job seekers in Korea, geographical mismatches in all types of jobs showed very quite low. So, it is very difficult for the job seeker to escape from unemployment when changing the other areas in looking for a job in Capital region. The results of this study gives an important implication that a nationwide uniform unemployment policy may not be effective to reduce unemployment conditions, and a differentiated unemployment policy should be established in considering the characteristics of geographic mismatches by the types of job in terms of the level of education and skill for each economic region.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.21 no.3_4
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• pp.105-146
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• 1999

1997년 말 외환위기 이후 한국의 노동시장은 빠르게 변화하고 있다. 외환위기에서 2년이 경과한 현재 실업률이 빠르게 하락하고 임금수준은 위기 이전으로 회복되었으나, 고용수준은 아직 회복되지 않은 상황이다. 현재의 상황에서 우려되는 것은 1970년대 이후 유럽에서 발생한 것처럼 고실업이 지속되는 현상이다. 본고에서는 여러 가지 분석을 통하여 이러한 우려가 현실로 나타날 수 있는 가능성에 대하여 경고하고 있다. 향후 고용 및 실업정책의 최우선 목표는 본원적인 일자리 창출을 통해 구조적 실업률을 저하시키기 위한 종합적인 정책의 시행에 두어져야 한다고 판단된다. 이는 실업과 분배문제를 동시에 해결할 수 있는 기초라 여겨지기 때문이다. 이를 위해서는 일자리의 창출을 위하여 수십년 동안 경험을 축적한 OECD국가의 경험을 참고할 필요가 있을 것이다. 현재 OECD국가에서는 일자리의 창출을 위하여 개별기업의 상황에 맞게 임금결정구조의 분권화를 지속적으로 추구하고 있으며, 임금상승률의 결정은 과거의 물가상승률이나 생산성 증가 등의 지수화에 의존하던 정책을 포기하고 미래지향적으로 물가상승의 예측치만큼 설정한 후 그 변동분은 사후적으로 고려하는 소득정책협약(income policy agreements)을 추구하고 있다. 이는 일자리 창출을 통해 경제의 성과를 기존의 취업자 외에 실업자와 신규근로자에게 분배하기 위한 수단으로 사용하고 있음을 의미한다. 한편 노동시장 유연성 제고를 통한 일자리의 창출은 소득분배를 악화시키는 경향이었다는 점이 유럽과 미국에서 발견된 경험 중의 하나이다. 따라서 일자리의 창출과 분배의 상충관계(trade-off)를 염두에 둘 필요는 있으나, 일자리의 창출은 일자리를 가짐으로써 불평등도를 개선하는 고용효과(employment effect)가 임금격차의 발생으로 불평등도를 확대시키는 임금효과(income effect)를 상쇄할 경우 오히려 분배구조를 개선시킬 수도 있다.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.121-161
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• 1999

1997년 11월 대외지불 불능사태로 시작된 외환위기가 경제위기로 확산되면서 97년 4/4분기에는 2.5%에 불과하던 전북지역의 실업률은 99년 2월 8.4%로 피크를 이루었으나 그후로는 감소추세를 보이고 있다. 그렇지만 전북지역 노동시장의 전반적 고용동향을 살펴보면 실업률 통계로는 파악되지 않지만 실질적으로 준실업상태에 있는 실망노동자와 불완전취업자의 증가가 심각한 것으로 드러났다. 그리고 산업별 취업자 구조의 변화를 살펴보면 제조업과 건설업의 취업자 감소가 두드러졌으며, 농업부문이나 생계형 서비스업은 실업대란 시대에 완충역할을 해줄 것이라는 기대와는 달리 고용흡수력이 예상보다 훨씬 적은 것으로 드러났다. 취업과 실업 및 비경제활동 사이의 노동력 전이률을 살펴보면 남성과 핵심연령층에서는 취업정착률이 높지만 일단 실업자가 되면 실업으로부터의 탈출률이 낮은 것으로 드러났다. 반면에 여성의 경우에는 실망노동자(discouraged sorkers)효과로 인하여 실업률은 낮고 비경제활동으로의 이동이 크게 나타났다. 그리고 실업이나 비경활상태로부터의 (재)취업시에는 압도적으로 임시고/일고로의 취업이 많아서 98년 하반기 이후 전북지역에서 창출된 일자리가 주로 임시고/일고 위주로 이루어져 있음을 극명하게 보여준다. 한편 여성실업자의 경우 50%이상이 생계주책임자이며, 특히 여성가장 실업자의 경우에는 90%이상이 생계책임자이나 그들 대부분이 빈곤선이하에서 생활하고 있다. 그리고 전북지역에서는 전국수준에 비해서 장기실업률이 다소 높게 나타났다. 저학력층과 고령층, 생산직, 임시고일고등의 비정규직 실업자들의 구직기간이 긴 것으로 나타났다. 실업이 장기화되면 전반적으로 기간의존성효과(duration dependence effect)나 이질성효과(heterogeneity effect)로 인하여 재취업의 가능성은 더욱 떨어진다. 생산적복지(workfare)가 그 이름에 값하는 것이기 위해서는 시장경쟁력이 약한 취약계층에 대해서 직업훈련과 취업알선 및 채용장려, 공공근로 등의 제반 정책들이 가구되어야 할 것이다.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.5-36
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• 1999

본 논문은 우리나라 청소년 인구의 장기적 경제활동참여율 변동추이와 고용(실업)구조에 있어서의 변화에 관한 연구이다. 청소년층의 경제활동참여와 취업은 학교교육의 이수, 군복무, 결혼·출산을 통한 자신의 가족형성 등 일련의 생애전이과정(life-course transitin)과의 긴밀한 연계속에서 이루어지며 따라서 집단적으로는 연령단계에 따라서 큰 변화를 보인다. 본 논문에서는 먼저 지난 20여년간(1980년대-1990대) 청소년층의 연령단계별 경제활동참여 및 취업률이 어떻게 변화해 왔는가를 살펴본다. 청소년기에는 학교에서 노동시장으로의 진입과정(school-to-work transition)을 포함하고 있기 때문에 청소년층의 경제활동참여율 및 취업률은 무엇보다 동 연령집단의 취학률 및 진학률의 변화와 직접적으로 연결되어 있다. 본 논문에서 제시되는 자료에 의하면 지난 20여년간 우리나라 청소년층의 고등학교 및 대학진학률은 지속적이고 급격하게 상승하고 있었던 것으로 나타나고 있으며, 따라서 이러한 변화가 그들의 경제활동참여율 및 고용구조에 있어서의 변화에 미친 영향을 경험적 자료를 통하여 살펴본다. 1980년대 초반이후 우리나라 학교교육체제에 있어서의 변화가 청소년층의 취업구조에 미친 가장 주요한 영향 중의 하나는 높은 대학진학률에 따른 청소년 노동력의 고학력화와 그에 따른 고(高)실업의 문제이다. 본 논문에서는 사회구조적 요인과 고실업을 낳는 노동시장에 있어서의 불평등한 기회구조에 관한 이론적 논의와 경험적 증거들을 제시한다.

• Korean Business Review
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• v.12
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• pp.275-301
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• 1999

The year of 1998 was a very hard time for the most of Koreans. The rate of unemployment, which had averaged between 2 and 2.5 percent for many years, has continued to rise as the industrial production declined from the first quarter of 1998. The seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate recorded high of 8.4 percent in the first quarter of 1999, and the number of the unemployed as 1.75 million. On the other hand, the unemployment rate in Kangwondo used to be smaller than the nation-wide rate. However, this should not be taken as evidence that Kangwondo's economy used to perform better than others, because the participation rate also used to be smaller in Kangwondo than other regions. Anyhow, the unemployment problem is one of urgent issues in Korean society. The purpose of this paper is to overall review Kangwondo's unemployment counterplan and to make priorities about what we have to do against the long-run unemployment. In addition to implementing unemployment countermeasure of the central government, Kangwondo has to devise in itself unemployment counterplan reflecting local attributes.

• Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.129-146
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• 2014

This paper investigates how industrial diversity affects unemployment and employment instability from the perspective of the regional economy. Through this analysis, we examine how the industry-specific policy to promote some industry strategically in most of areas affects the stability of the regional economy. We measure Herfindahl indexes using the 1993-2010 data of 16 regions in Korea, and use panel regression model for empirical analysis. The main results from this empirical analysis are summarized as follows. First, we confirm that the industrial structure of most regions has been changed to the direction of specialization in 1990s and to the direction of diversification in 2000s through analyzing the changes in the values of Herfindahl indexes during the given period. Second, we find from the estimation results of panel regression model that the higher industrial diversity in most of regions is, the lower the unemployment rate is. However, a statistically significant relationship between industrial diversity and employment instability only partially confirmed. Third, there exist high unemployment rate and employment instability in most metropolitan areas, but it is hard to say that this relationship is highly statistically significant. From the results of the empirical analysis, it is likely that the industry-specific policies such as the regional strategic industry development policies unlike policy goals make the unemployment rate to rise and economic instability to increase. From the viewpoint of employment aspects, the strategies to increase industrial diversity would be desirable rather than those to specialize in the industrial structure.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.1-38
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• 2020

In this research, we explore the effects of changes in industrial structure due to industrial restructuring on employment and growth in the Korean economy. To that end, we first investigate the impact of industrial restructuring on employment through Lilien's sectoral shift hypothesis, considering the dependence of industrial restructuring on business cycles. As a result of the analysis, we find that changes in the industrial structure have exerted a short-term effect of increasing unemployment, and that the effects of industrial restructuring are even greater during the economic downturn period. In light of these points, Lilien's sectoral shift hypothesis seems to be valid in Korea. Next, we examine the effect of industrial restructuring on economic growth in Korea by analyzing which one, between the Kuznetz hypothesis and the Baumol effect, is dominant. Empirical results reveal that the mid- to long-term effect of industrial restructuring on GDP growth is significant, which is in accordance with the Kuznets hypothesis, where resource allocation along with industrial restructuring to sectors with high productivity spurs economic growth.