• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.23 no.3 s.81
• /
• pp.109-123
• /
• 2005

The goals of this paper are two folds: i) to evaluate whether the data collected by a license plate matching AVI equipment being operated on some segment of a national highway are suitable or not for use in travel time estimation of interrupted traffic flows; ii) to study the statistical methodologies to be used for the determination of the optimal aggregation interval for travel time estimation. In this study it was found that the AVI data are not representative because the data are collected on some selected lanes of a roadway where main traffic is thru-traffic and, thus the AVI data are different from those collected from all lanes in traffic characteristics. For the determination of the optimal aggregation interval for travel time estimation. two statistical methods. namely point estimation and interval estimation. were tested. The test shows that the point estimation method is more sensitive and gives more desirable results in determing the optimal aggregation interval than the interval estimation method. And it turned out that the optimal aggregation interval on interrupted traffic flows has been calculated as 5 minute and thus the existing aggregation interval. 5 minute is proper.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.24 no.1 s.87
• /
• pp.73-84
• /
• 2006

This study was carried out to set up the logic to determine lengths of the homogeneous sections effectively in order to provide dynamic travel time on real time base for the application of the model. First, considering real time traffic pattern fluctuation, lengths of the homogeneous sections for each time period and the final homogeneous sections were determined. In order to determine lengths of the homogeneous sections according to traffic condition, the cluster analysis was used based on real time data. In order to verify the homogeneous section the case with detectors in all links and the case with detectors in homogeneous section for each time period are used. As the results of verification, each cases showed similar estimation results. The results of this study are expected to be used for National Highway traffic management and the system to Provide a traffic information in the future. According to this study, when the homogeneous section decision model are used to the ITS project for National Highway, operation cost is expected to be cut by effectively establishing point detectors.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.2 no.1
• /
• pp.69-88
• /
• 1984

통행시간가치에 대한 연구는 독립변수를 이용한 통행시간과 비용에 의한 선택모형 을 대개 사용하여 왔다. 통행시간과 비용에 대한 매개함수를 추정한 후에 통행시간가치를 교통시간과 비용의 $\ulcorner$파라메타$\lrcorner$비로써 얻고 있다. 그러나 통행시간가치에 관한 신뢰구간과 통계적 유의성을 설정하기 위한 적절한 과정은 아직 연구되지 않고 있으나 $\ulcorner$로-짓$\lrcorner$ 모형 자체에 대하여는 되어있다. 본 논문은 통행시간가치를 측정하기 위한 기존의 방향을 비평적 으로 검토하여 본 것으로 통행시간가치를 통계적 유의성 검증을 위한 표준화 과정은 아직 이론적으로 정립 가능하다고 생각되지 않지만 통행시간가치평가의 간편식을 제시하여 보았 다. 간편식에 의하여 제시된 결과에 의하면 선택모형에 입각한 통행시간가치의 통계적신뢰 구간이 매우 큰 것으로 나타났는바 이에 대한 선택모형에 입각한 통행시간가치 측정을 위한 과정의 타당성에 대한 많은 의문이 아직도 남는다 하겠다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.23 no.6 s.84
• /
• pp.19-30
• /
• 2005

The objective of this research is to keep track of path travel time using methods of collecting traffic data. Users of traffic information are looking for extensive information on path travel time, which is referred to as the time taken for traveling from the origin to the destination. However, all the information available is the average path travel times, which is a simple sum of the average link travel times. The average path travel time services are not up to the expectation of traffic information consumers. To improve provide more accurate path travel time services, this research makes a number of different estimates of various path travel times on one path, assuming it will be under the same condition, and provides a range of estimates with their probabilities to the consumers, who are looking for detailed information. To estimate the distribution of the path travel times as a combination of link travel times. this research analyzes the relation between the link travel time and path travel time. Based on the result of the estimation. this research develops the algorithm that combines the distribution of link travel time and estimates the path travel time based on the link travel times. This algorithm was tested and proven to be highly reliable for estimating the path traffic time.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.17 no.2
• /
• pp.193-198
• /
• 1999

An asymptotic distribution of the ratio of two normal vectors is estimated. Using the estimated asymptotic distribution, an approximation method to estimate confidence interval of passenger's value of travel time is proposed. As a result of empirical study the 95% confidence interval of value of travel time of home-to-work trips in city of Seoul is estimated at ￦7341.25$\pm$1945.05/hr.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.24 no.2 s.88
• /
• pp.19-30
• /
• 2006

This study deals with the optimized detector location considering the traffic characteristics in National Highway. Although there ave many construction works for ITS in National Highway, there is not specific criteria for detector location which can effect the accuracy of traffic information. This study. therefore. aims to Provide the optimized detector location criteria which can represent the traffic characteristics of National Highway. It collects traffic factors of study area by GPS Probe-car and defector, and Presents the optimized detector location by the correlation analysis between spot-speed and link-travel-time. The main results of this study are as followings ; First, the correlation between the spot-speed and link-travel-time Presents the opposite bell shape of the graph (U-type owe) which is increased it?on the upstream then, declined through some unspecified Point of the link. Second, the optimized detector location usually distributes around midstream of link, even though it does not have a consistency. Third, therefore, the optimized detector location generally should be located between $55{\sim}60%$ of total link length. Forth. high level of vertical slope is one of the most important factors of detector location, so it should be excluded for determination of optimized detector location. Finally, expecting that the results of this study would improve the accuracy of travel time estimation and forecasting.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
• /
• v.8 no.5
• /
• pp.1-11
• /
• 2009

TCS Data imply characteristics of traffic conditions. However, there are outliers in TCS data, which can not represent the travel time of the pertinent section, if these outliers are not eliminated, travel time may be distorted owing to these outliers. Various travel time can be distributed under the same section and time because the variation of the travel time is increase as the section distance is increase, which make difficult to calculate the representative of travel time. Accordingly, it is important to grasp travel time characteristics in order to compute the representative of travel time using TCS Data. In this study, after analyzing the variation ratio of the travel time according to the link distance and the level of congestion, the outlier elimination model and the smoothing model for TCS data were proposed. The results show that the proposed model can be utilized for estimating a reliable travel time for a long-distance path in which there are a variation of travel times from the same departure time, the intervals are large and the change in the representative travel time is irregular for a short period.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
• /
• v.10 no.1
• /
• pp.145-154
• /
• 2008

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the quality of on-line departure time-based link travel time estimates. For this, accuracy (i.e. estimation error) and timeliness (i.e. degree of time lag) are proposed as MOE of the quality of on-line link travel time estimates. Then the relationship between quality of link travel time estimates and link length and level of congestion is analyzed. It was found that there is trade-off between the accuracy and timeliness of link travel time estimates. The estimation error was modeled to consist of two components: one is systematic error and the other is mean square error which reflects level of congestion. further, time lag was again segmented into three parts for the analysis purpose. There are minimum one, congestion-related one, and update interval-related one. From the real-world data using AVI system, it was revealed that regardless of the link length and level of congestion, 10 minutes of time lag occurs in general.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.22 no.6
• /
• pp.109-120
• /
• 2004

Since the late of 1990, there have been number of studies on the required number of probe vehicles and/or optimal aggregation interval sizes for travel time estimation and forecasting. However, in general one to five minutes are used as aggregation intervals for the travel time estimation intervals for the travel time estimation and/or forecasting of loop detector system without a reasonable validation. The objective of this study is to deveop models for identifying optimal aggregation interval sizes of loop detector data for travel time estimation and prediction. This study developed Cross Valiated Mean Square Error (CVMSE) model for the link and route travel time forecasting, The developed models were applied to the loop detector data of Kyeongbu expressway. It was found that the optimal aggregation sizes for the travel time estimation and forecasting are three to five minutes and ten to twenty minutes, respectively.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.35 no.1
• /
• pp.63-78
• /
• 2017

The purpose of this study is to determine the optimal aggregation interval to increase the reliability when estimating representative value of individual vehicle travel time collected by DSRC equipment in interrupted traffic flow section in National Highway. For this, we use the bimodal asymmetric distribution data, which is the distribution of the most representative individual vehicle travel time collected in the interrupted traffic flow section, and estimate the MSE(Mean Square Error) according to the variation of the aggregation interval of individual vehicle travel time, and determine the optimal aggregation interval. The estimation equation for the MSE estimation utilizes the maximum estimation error equation of t-distribution that can be used in asymmetric distribution. For the analysis of optimal aggregation interval size, the aggregation interval size of individual vehicle travel time was only 3 minutes or more apart from the aggregation interval size of 1-2 minutes in which the collection of data was normally lost due to the signal stop in the interrupted traffic flow section. The aggregation interval that causes the missing part in the data collection causes another error in the missing data correction process and is excluded. As a result, the optimal aggregation interval for the minimum MSE was 3~5 minutes. Considering both the efficiency of the system operation and the improvement of the reliability of calculation of the travel time, it is effective to operate the basic aggregation interval as 5 minutes as usual and to reduce the aggregation interval to 3 minutes in case of congestion.