• Title/Summary/Keyword: 교통정보 변동성

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Accident Rate Forecasting Model by Using Speed on Freeway (속도를 이용한 고속도로 구간 사고율 예측 모형)

  • Jeong, Eun-Bi;O, Cheol
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.103-111
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    • 2011
  • The speed is one of the significant factors affecting accident occurrence. In particular, freeway accidents are highly associated with the speed because vehicles travel on the freeway at higher speed leading to greater potential of severer injury. Efforts attempting to relating speed with accident occurrence have not been significantly made in Korea. The objective of this study is to model the relationship between speed and accident rate on freeways. Loop detector data and accident data obtained from a stretch of Kyungboo freeway during the recent five years, 2005-2009, were used to establish the model. Multiple linear regression analyses showed that median, minimum and standard deviation of speed were contributing variables in the model. The statistical significance identified by the analyses supports the feasibility of the model in evaluating various transportation policies and operations strategies in terms of traffic safety.

Analyzing the Uncertainty of Traffic Link Flow, and Estimation of the Interval Link Flow using Korea Transport Data Base (기종점 통행량 변화에 따른 링크 교통량 추정의 불확실성에 관한 연구 (국가교통DB를 이용한 구간 링크 교통량 추정을 중심으로))

  • Kim, Gang-Su;Kim, Jin-Seok;Jo, Hye-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.117-127
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    • 2009
  • This study analyzed the uncertainty of the forecasted link traffic flow, and estimated of the interval link flow using Korea Transport Data Base (KTDB) to consider those risks into the feasibility study. In the paper, the uncertainty was analyzed according to the stochastic variation of the KTDB origin-destination traffic. It was found that the uncertainty of the entire network traffic forecasts was 15.4% in average,. when the stochastic variation of the KTDB was considered. The results showed that the more congested the roads were, the bigger the uncertainty of forecasted link traffic flow were found. In particular, we estimated the variance of the forecasted traffic flow, and suggested interval estimates of the forecasted traffic flow instead of point estimates which were presented in the common feasibility studies. These results are expected to contribute the quantitative evaluation of uncertain road investment projects and to provide valuable information to the decision makers for the transport investment.

Simulation Analysis about Effects on Highway Network and Drivers under Information Providing Service (정보제공 서비스가 운전자 및 도로 네트워크에 미치는 영향에 대한 시뮬레이션 분석)

  • ;IIDA, Yasunori;;UNO, Nobuhiro
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.85-96
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    • 2003
  • To build traffic information providing services by ITS technology should be carried out effect analysis in the first step for social and individual advantages. The propose on this study is to make clear what influences of highway network by traffic information are, and what differences between drivers who use traffic information and drivers who do not use that for route choice are. For these propose. travel time and forecast error of travel time on network and traffic information dependence of driver are analyzed by simulation. As a result of analysis travel time and forecast error of travel time is that the efficiency and reliability of travel time were increased when getting more drivers using traffic information in network. Drivers who using traffic information had advantage of decrease of travel time and forecast error in only definite situation. traffic information dependence analysis presented that drivers are dependent upon information and reliability of traffic information is also increased when drivers using traffic information become on increasing in network. In conclusion, considering the range of the traffic information user ratio in this simulation, this study presents that the traffic information service provides an advantage to the highway network and the drivers, and increases the dependence of information.

Spatio-temporal Analysis of Population Distribution in Seoul via Integrating Transportation and Land Use Information, Based on Four-Dimensional Visualization Methods (교통과 토지이용 정보를 결합한 서울 인구분포의 시공간적 분석: 4차원 시각화 방법을 토대로)

  • Lee, Keumsook;Kim, Ho Sung
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.20-33
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    • 2018
  • Population distribution in urban space varies with transportation flow changing along time of day. Transportation flow is directly affected by the activities of urbanites and the distribution of related facilities, since the flow is the result of moving to the point where the facilities associated with their activities are located. It is thus necessary to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of the urban population distribution by integrating the distribution of activity spaces related to the daily life of urbanites and the flow of transportation. The purpose of this study is to analyze the population distribution in urban space with daily and weekly time bases using the building database and T-card database in the city of Seoul, which is rich in information on land use and transportation flow. For a time-based analysis that is difficult to grasp by general statistical techniques, a four-dimensional visualization method combining time and space using a Java program is devised. Dynamic visualization in the four-dimensional space and time allows intuitive analysis and makes it possible to understand more effectively the spatio-temporal characteristics of population distribution. For this purpose, buildings are classified into three activity groups: residential, working, and commercial according to their purpose, and the number of passengers traveling to and from each stop site of bus and subway networks in the T-card database for one week is calculated in one-minute increments, Visualizing these and integrating transportation and land use, we analyze spatio-temporal characteristics of the population distribution in Seoul. As a result, it is found that the population distribution of Seoul displays distinct spatio-temporal characteristics according to land use. In particular, there is a clear difference in the population distribution pattern along the time axis according to the mixed aspects of working, commercial, and residential activities. The results of this study can be very useful for transportation and location planning of city facilities.

Rolling Horizon Implementation for Real-Time Operation of Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model (동적통행배정모형의 실시간 교통상황 반영)

  • SHIN, Seong Il;CHOI, Kee Choo;OH, Young Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.135-150
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    • 2002
  • The basic assumption of analytical Dynamic Traffic Assignment models is that traffic demand and network conditions are known as a priori and unchanging during the whole planning horizon. This assumption may not be realistic in the practical traffic situation because traffic demand and network conditions nay vary from time to time. The rolling horizon implementation recognizes a fact : The Prediction of origin-destination(OD) matrices and network conditions is usually more accurate in a short period of time, while further into the whole horizon there exists a substantial uncertainty. In the rolling horizon implementation, therefore, rather than assuming time-dependent OD matrices and network conditions are known at the beginning of the horizon, it is assumed that the deterministic information of OD and traffic conditions for a short period are possessed, whereas information beyond this short period will not be available until the time rolls forward. This paper introduces rolling horizon implementation to enable a multi-class analytical DTA model to respond operationally to dynamic variations of both traffic demand and network conditions. In the paper, implementation procedure is discussed in detail, and practical solutions for some raised issues of 1) unfinished trips and 2) rerouting strategy of these trips, are proposed. Computational examples and results are presented and analyzed.

A Study on the Stochastic Demand Forecast for the Capacity Calculation of Urban Planning Facilities (도시계획시설 용량 산정을 위한 확률적 수요 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Jae Young Kang;Jong Jin Kim
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.135-146
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    • 2024
  • This study predicts the means sharing ratio of the urban air transportation (UAM) when the VertiHub of the UAM in the southern western part is built at Songjeong Station in Gwanju. Based on Monte Carlo simulation of the utility function and means selection logit model for each means of transportation, our findings indicate an average mode share of 0.95%, with a variability range from 0.07% to 4.7%. Moreover, 95% of the simulation outcomes fall below a 2.02% mode share. Sensitivity analysis, conducted via Tornado Plot, highlights that the mode share is principally influenced by factors such as the unit fare, cost parameter, basic fare, and the time required for takeoff and landing. Notably, a negative correlation exists for unit fare, basic fare, and takeoff and landing time, suggesting the necessity of setting an appropriate level of fair to enhance UAM utilization.

Analysis of the Effectiveness of Tunnel Traffic Safety Information Service Using RADAR Data Based on Surrogate Safety Measures (레이더 검지기 자료를 활용한 SSM 기반 터널 교통안전정보 제공 서비스 효과분석)

  • Yongju Kim;Jaehyeon Lee;Sungyong Chung;Chungwon Lee
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.73-87
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    • 2023
  • Furnishing traffic safety information can contribute to providing hazard warnings to drivers, thereby avoiding crashes. A smart road lighting platform that instantly recognizes road conditions using various sensors and provides appropriate traffic safety information has therefore been developed. This study analyzes the short-term traffic safety improvement effects of the smart road lighting's tunnel traffic safety information service using surrogate safety measures (SSM). Individual driving behavior was investigated by applying the vehicle trajectory data collected with RADAR in the Anin Avalanche 1 and 2 tunnel sections in Gangneung. Comparing accumulated speeding, speed variation, time-to-collision, and deceleration rate to avoid the crash before and after providing traffic safety information, all SSMs showed significant improvement, indicating that the tunnel traffic safety information service is beneficial in improving traffic safety. Analyzing potential crash risk in the subdivided tunnel and access road sections revealed that providing traffic safety information reduced the probability of traffic accidents in most segments. The results of this study will be valuable for analyzing the short-term quantitative effects of traffic safety information services.

An Hourly Extreme Data Estimation Method Developed in South Korea (우리나라의 시 단위 극치자료 추정기법 개발)

  • Kim, Yong-Tak;Do, Ki-Bong;Han, Young-Chun;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.18-18
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    • 2017
  • 우리나라뿐만 아니라 세계의 여러 국가에서 과거 발생 했던 강수의 통계적 특성에서 벗어나는 극치사상이 빈번 하게 관측되고 있다. 이와 같은 현상에 가장 큰 영향을 미치고 있는 요인중 하나로서 지구온난화가 원인으로 고려되고 있으며 실제 산업화 이후 온실가스의 증가와 더불어 극한 기상현상의 발생 빈도가 증가하였다. 우리나라는 과거 발생패턴과는 다른 극치 강우 사상이 빈번하게 관측되고 있으며 이로 인한 피해도 증가되고 있는 상황이다. 이러한 점에서 기존의 연구에서 개발한 계절강수량을 입력 자료로 하여 극치강수량을 추정할 수 있는 비정상성 Four - Parameter(4P)-Beta분포를 이용한 알고리즘을 본 연구에서는 기상인자를 이용하여 모형 내에서 계절강수량을 직접적으로 예측할 수 있는 알고리즘을 추가하여, 이를 직접적으로 일단위 이하의 극치강수량을 상세화 시킬 수 있는 모형으로 확장하고자 하며, 이를 통해 기상변동성을 다양한 시간규모에서 고려하기 위한 정보로 활용하고자 하였다.

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A Study on the Change of Urban Land Use According to the Change of Transportation Accessibility (교통 접근성 변동에 따른 도시 토지이용 변화에 관한 연구)

  • Won, Seok Hwan;Hwang, Chul-sue
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.127-142
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the status of urbanization of Namyangju-Si from 2001 till 2008, analyze the correlation of the change of surrounding land use according to the change of accessibility and analyze the correlation of the change of land use. Based on the result from correlation analysis, I simulated from the view point of interactions between agents of land use and transportation accessibility by using MAS. I tried to forecast, based on space, the change of surrounding land use caused by the change of accessibility. I conducted landscape analysis by using a land registration map. Also, I conducted GIS analysis statistical analysis simulation analysis of traffic data, land use data in order to analyze the correlation of the change of surrounding land use according to the change of accessibility. I could find out a certain pattern that new roads and railroads causes the within 500m adjacent land to change into urban land use, which led me to construct a system through which land use changing phenomenon can be expected according to the change of accessibility. It is expected that it can make the best use of selecting the location where new transportation facilities are constructed.

Developing a Transit Assignment Model Considering Waiting Time Variation and Line Capacity (대기시간변동 및 용량을 고려한 대중교통 통행배정모형)

  • Kim, Jin Howan;Kim, Dong Sun;Kim, Ji Hyun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.1525-1534
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    • 2014
  • In recent years, the passengers are likely to decide their route on impulse due to the development of the integrated public transport system, and real-time information system. Especially, public transport fare integration in Seoul Metropolitan area, 2004 makes them not to have resistance about changing the modes or routes and their route choice is most effected by the degree of congestion. Assignment model have limitations to describe route changes by congestion. In this study, the concept of a link cost function used in road assignment and Effective frequency is introduced to describe the passengers' behavior when the capacity of public transport is over and the waiting time variation. Two situations, new transit line operation and accident, are set up to validate the model, as a result of the transit assignment by this model, the traffic on networks is not over the capacity. It is expected that this study will be of help to reflect the various behaviors in transit assignments.