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Analyzing the Uncertainty of Traffic Link Flow, and Estimation of the Interval Link Flow using Korea Transport Data Base  

Kim, Gang-Su (한국개발연구원 공공투자관리센터)
Kim, Jin-Seok (동국대학교 정보통계학과)
Jo, Hye-Jin (한국건설기술연구원 도로연구부)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation / v.27, no.1, 2009 , pp. 117-127 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study analyzed the uncertainty of the forecasted link traffic flow, and estimated of the interval link flow using Korea Transport Data Base (KTDB) to consider those risks into the feasibility study. In the paper, the uncertainty was analyzed according to the stochastic variation of the KTDB origin-destination traffic. It was found that the uncertainty of the entire network traffic forecasts was 15.4% in average,. when the stochastic variation of the KTDB was considered. The results showed that the more congested the roads were, the bigger the uncertainty of forecasted link traffic flow were found. In particular, we estimated the variance of the forecasted traffic flow, and suggested interval estimates of the forecasted traffic flow instead of point estimates which were presented in the common feasibility studies. These results are expected to contribute the quantitative evaluation of uncertain road investment projects and to provide valuable information to the decision makers for the transport investment.
Keywords
Link Flow; Uncertainty; Interval Estimates; Orign-Destination Data; Korea Transport Data Base;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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