• Title/Summary/Keyword: 교통사고모형

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Developing the Accident Injury Severity on a Field of Construction Work Using Ordered Probit Model (순서형 프로빗 모형을 적용한 공사장 교통 사고심각도 분석)

  • Hong, Ji-Yeon;Kim, Kyung-Tae;Lee, Soo-Beom
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.89-98
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    • 2011
  • The traffic accidents at a construction site, which happen due to construction vehicles' frequent access to a construction site, its subsequent conflicts with ordinary vehicles and pedestrians, and inappropriate installation & management of traffic security facilities, have not many proportions in all traffic accidents, but obviously, the accident damage is quite serious when comparing the level of the fatal per one accident. This research conducted an analysis of traffic accident injury severity using Ordered Probit Model in relation to 241 traffic accident cases that occurred caused by construction sites among the traffic accidents that took place in Seoul and Gyeoggi-do region for two years from 2006 until 2007. As a result, the significant variables enough to explain traffic accident injury severity were analyzed to be the state of road surface, linear shape of an accident spot & whether the damaging car belongs to the vehicle for construction, and whether vehicles have access to a construction site at the time of an accident. Through this, this research found out some fact as follows: first, there need to be more aggressive management of the vehicles for construction and a year-round placement of the manpower who can control vehicular access to a construction site. Second, it is necessary to get drivers to recognize the fact that there exists a construction site on the construction section which is on the border of curved roads in advance to prevent a traffic accident, helping to reduce socioeconomic loss & costs incurred by a traffic accident.

Macro-Level Accident Prediction Model using Mobile Phone Data (이동통신 자료를 활용한 거시적 교통사고 예측 모형 개발)

  • Kwak, Ho-Chan;Song, Ji Young;Lee, In Mook;Lee, Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.98-104
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    • 2018
  • Macroscopic accident analyses have been conducted to incorporate transportation safety into long-term transportation planning. In macro-level accident prediction model, exposure variable(e.g. a settled population) have been used as fundamental explanatory variable under the concept that each trip will be subjected to a probable risk of accident. However, a settled population may be embedded error by exclusion of active population concept. The objective of this research study is to develop macro-level accident prediction model using floating population variable(concept of including a settled population and active population) collected from mobile phone data. The concept of accident prediction models is introduced utilizing exposure variable as explanatory variable in a generalized linear regression with assumption of a negative binomial error structure. The goodness of fit of model using floating population variable is compared with that of the each models using population and the number of household variables. Also, log transformation models are additionally developed to improve the goodness of fit. The results show that the log transformation model using floating population variable is useful for capturing the relationships between accident and exposure variable and generally perform better than the models using other existing exposure variables. The developed model using floating population variable can be used to guide transportation safety policy decision makers to allocate resources more efficiently for the regions(or zones) with higher risk and improve urban transportation safety in transportation planning step.

Discernment Model of Traffic Accident for an Age-old Driver's License Management (고령운전자 면허관리를 위한 교통사고발생 판별모형 개발)

  • Park, Jun-Tae;Lee, Soo-Beom;Lee, Soo-IL
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.91-97
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    • 2011
  • The weight of elderly people in Korea has been increasing. Statistics show that the percentage of the elderly people in Korea was 3.1% in 1970; 3.8% in 1980; 5.1% in 1990, and 7.2% in 2000. Based on this trend, thus, the number of elderly people could be estimated to be 14% of the whole Korean population in 2018. This reveals that Korea is entering a super-aging society with remarkable fast pace. In such a change, the statistics related to elderly people driving license and the occurrence of traffic accidents are showing a noticeable numerical value. The number of traffic accident fatality in Korea ranks the highest value in OECD Countries. However, the research on old drivers in the nation is going on partially centering on system improvement and management scheme. Thus, first of all, researches about the linkage & characteristics between the driving behavior of old drivers and traffic accident should be implemented, in order properly to draw system improvement and management scheme for the old drivers. Therefore, the focus of this study is the influence model for discerning the severity of the age-old-caused traffic accidents by inquiring into the relation between the Driving Aptitude Test items that make it possible to measure their behavioral characteristics and influential factors by age group on the basis of the data on traffic accidents. The analysis results can be used as basic data for suggesting the behavioral research and countermeasure for traffic safety and its management for old driver in preparation for the aging society.

A Study on the Development of a Traffic Accident Ratio Model in Foggy Areas (안개지역의 교통사고심각도 모형개발에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Soo-Il;Won, Jai-Mu;Ha, Oh-Keun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.171-177
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    • 2008
  • As the risk of traffic accidents caused by mists emerged as a social problem, recently safety facilities to be prepared for mists are being actively installed when designing roads. But in some part, the facilities are being installed imprudently without analyzing the extent of occurrences of mists that would increase the risk of traffic accidents and appropriate countermeasures against the occurrences of mists are not being suggested. For that reason, in this study, first questionnaire surveys were executed on road users in order to draw the factors affecting the traffic accidents caused by mists, a mist traffic accident predicting model was developed and an accident seriousness determining model that can determine accident seriousness was developed. In this way, by extracting major factors affecting mist traffic accidents to grasp risk factors in roads to be caused by mists, safety of roads can be enhanced and traffic accidents in road operations can be decreased. As the affecting factors influencing mist traffic accidents, were extracted sightable distances, durations of mists and whether daytime or nighttime as major factors and the plan to install the facilities for the prevention of mist traffic accidents was suggested to prevent the traffic accidents to be caused by those factors and also the plan to operate roads considering sightable distances was suggested to solve the problem of insufficient sightable distances to be caused by mists was suggested. It is judged that the road safety in the areas where mists occur can be improved through foregoing methods.

Analysis of Visual Distortion and Suggestion of Design Criteria at Curve Sections (곡선부 시각왜곡현상 분석 및 설계기법 제시)

  • Ha, Tae-Jun;Jeong, Jun-Hwa;Lee, Jeong-Hwan;Lee, Suk-Ki
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.6D
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    • pp.663-673
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    • 2009
  • Driver's perceived curve radius is different from actual curve radius at curve sections. This is called visual distortion. It has effect on operation speed according to driver's perception and finally bad effect on safety at curve sections. At present, however, there is no research on quantitatively analysis of visual distortion and no criteria for curve section design considering the visual distortion. Therefore, this study focus on finding degree of visual distortion and suggesting design criteria by visual distortion analysis. The process of this study is as below; First, a calculaiton model of perceived curve radius was developed by survey using computer simulation. In this model, a dependent variable is perceived curve radius and an independent variable is geometric factors. Second, degree of visual distortion was calculated from ratio of perceived curve radius to actual curve radius. Finally, design criteria were suggested through influencing factor analysis of visual distortion at curve sections.

An Evaluation of Service Quality Priorities between Air Cargo Service Providers and Customers (항공화물운송서비스 품질에 대한 서비스 이용자와 제공자간의 중요도 인식 차이에 관한 연구)

  • Jun, Il-Soo;Hong, Seok-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2004
  • This paper analyzes the differences in the service quality priorities of air cargo service providers and customers. After having identified what constitutes the decisive factors with regards to air cargo service quslity, research was carried out to evaluate the differences in the service quality priorities of air cargo service providers and customers. Moreover, this paper analyzes these differences by separating air cargo service providers into Korean and international air cargo service providers. In order to attain the objectives of this research, the air cargo service sectors were divided into three general categories: supply capability(H/W), service accountability, and competitiveness of service fees and management capability(S/W). The researchers then placed 6 different criteria into each service category, for a total of 18. The evaluation of the service quality priorities of air cargo service providers and customers revealed very little difference between these two groups. With regards to the service criteria found in each service category, our research found marked differences between the service quality priorities of providers and customers in only three of the 18 criteria. However, we found marked differences in service quality priorities in 7 of the 18 criteria when the air cargo service providers were divided into Korean and international air cargo providers. While domestic air cargo service providers evaluated management's capability to handle cargo accidents and incidents as the most important priority, international air cargo service providers placed the highest priority on the cargo rate system. The results of this research imply that in order to properly evaluate the differences between the service quality priorities of air cargo service providers and customers, the air cargo service providers itself should be separated between the Korean air cargo service providers and the foreign providers because of their respective inherent perception on service quality.

The Situation Awareness Analysis of VTSOs in the Close Quarters Situation (선박 근접상황에 대한 VTSO의 상황 인식 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jin-Suk;Song, Chae-Uk
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.25-30
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    • 2018
  • This study was carried out to analyze the risk attitude based on situation awareness of the Vessel Traffic Service Operator (VTSO) on the risk of collision between vessels during the monitoring of vessel traffic through the use of the VTS system. In general, when two vessels are in the close quarters situation, we analyzed the degree of risk of collision from the subjective viewpoint of the VTSOs through an administered survey. Chiefly, we analyzed the risk attitudes of each VTSO in the close quarters situation, by comparing it with the calculated value by the CoRi, which is the ship collision risk model from the VTSO's viewpoint. As a result, it was confirmed that more than 40% of the total VTSO was noted as being in a weak risk aversion type of category. Through a review of the results of analyzing the risk attitude of VTSO according to gender, age, VTS career, VTS center position, accident experience, and boarded career, it was found that there was a significant difference in the VTS career, VTS center position and accident experience. In addition, a regression model that is able to further explain the risk attitude of VTSO was derived as a factor that confirmed the significant difference and applied to CoRi to predict the collision risk according to the individual VTSO to be used as a fundamental information gathering tool for providing more accurate and safe VTS service at sea.

A psychological approach to the safety problems in Korean society (한국사회에서 안전에 관한 심리학 연구의 과제)

  • Doug-Woong Hahn
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.9 no.spc
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    • pp.35-55
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study is to review the previous studies on the safety problems in Korea and to propose a psychological total safety system model. The model consisted of four agents; the government as the safety management agent, the suppliers of safety goods and services, consumer of safety goods and services, and civil movement institutions for safety. It was emphasized that the culture specific social representations of safety and accident have emerged in the course of rapid industrialization process in Korea during last 30 years. We delineated the social representations of the Korean people on safety and accident according to the model. A psychological analysis of drinking and driving behavior was performed as an application of the model. It was emphasized that safety psychologists have to develope and to apply the knowledge and the information from human engineering psychology and applied social psychology on safety and accidents.

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Spatial Econometrics Analysis of Fire Occurrence According to Type of Facilities (시설물 유형에 따른 화재 발생의 공간 계량 분석)

  • Seo, Min Song;Yoo, Hwan Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.129-141
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    • 2019
  • In recent years, fast growing cities in Korea are showing signs of being vulnerable to more disasters as their population and facilities increase and intensify. In particular, fire is one of the most common disasters in Korea's cities, along with traffic accidents. Therefore, in this study, we analyze what type of factors affect the fire that threatens urban people. Fire data were acquired for 10 years, from 2007 to 2017, in Jinju, Korea. Spatial distribution pattern of fire occurrence in Jinju was assessed through the spatial autocorrelation analysis. First, spatial autocorrelation analysis was carried out to grasp the spatial distribution pattern of fire occurrence in Jinju city. In addition, correlation and multiple regression analysis were used to confirm spatial dependency and abnormality among factors. Based on this, OLS (Ordinary Least Square) regression analysis was performed using space weighting considering fire location and spatial location of each facility. As a result, First, LISA (Local Indicator of Spatial Association) analysis of the occurrence of fire in Jinju shows that the most central commercial area are fire department, industrial area, and residential area. Second, the OLS regression model was analyzed by applying spatial weighting, focusing on the most derived factors of multiple regression analysis, by integrating population and social variables and physical variables. As a result, the second kind of neighborhood living facility showed the highest correlation with the fire occurrence, followed by the following in the order of single house, sales facility, first type of neighborhood living facility, and number of households. The results of this study are expected to be useful for analyzing the fire occurrence factors of each facility in urban areas and establishing fire safety measures.

A Study on the Improvement of the Disaster Prevention and Control System for Underpasses by Analytic Hierarchy Process (계층분석법을 통한 지하차도 재해 예방 및 제어 시스템 개선 연구)

  • Kim, Phil Do;Kim, Kyoung Soo;Moon, Yoo Mi
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.734-746
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: Increase in the size and number of underpasses rises occurrence of disasters such as fire and flooding inundation in underpasses. In the occurrence of disasters, the underpasses are more vulnerable to expose of crucial disasters than the general roads due to they are built underground. Therefore, The purpose of this paper is to derive system improvement items to prevent and control disasters in underpasses. Method: A hierarchical model of disaster impact factors and alternatives was developed based on prior researches and expert advices on disaster analyses and impact factors in the underpasses. The developed model was employed for surveys of pairwise comparison, and rankings of improvement were determined by applying the AHP method. Result: With a consistency of the surveys, results of relative weights of evaluation criteria(traffic accidents, fire, flooding inundation) and alternatives(law, system/planning, maintenance/human factor/environment) shows that improvement of laws and system related to the fire disaster is a top priority to prevent and control disaster of the underpasses. Conclusion: From experts' point of view, strengthening laws and systems related to disater prevention facilities such as water spray facilities, external(ground) exit in relation to fire in underpasses showed that it is an alternative to prevent disasters and minimize damage to underpasses.