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Monthly temperature forecasting using large-scale climate teleconnections and multiple regression models (대규모 기후 원격상관성 및 다중회귀모형을 이용한 월 평균기온 예측)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Nam Won;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.9
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    • pp.731-745
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the monthly temperature of the Han River basin was predicted by statistical multiple regression models that use global climate indices and weather data of the target region as predictors. The optimal predictors were selected through teleconnection analysis between the monthly temperature and the preceding patterns of each climate index, and forecast models capable of predicting up to 12 months in advance were constructed by combining the selected predictors and cross-validating the past period. Fore each target month, 1000 optimized models were derived and forecast ranges were presented. As a result of analyzing the predictability of monthly temperature from January 1992 to December 2020, PBIAS was -1.4 to -0.7%, RSR was 0.15 to 0.16, NSE was 0.98, and r was 0.99, indicating a high goodness-of-fit. The probability of each monthly observation being included in the forecast range was about 64.4% on average, and by month, the predictability was relatively high in September, December, February, and January, and low in April, August, and March. The predicted range and median were in good agreement with the observations, except for some periods when temperature was dramatically lower or higher than in normal years. The quantitative temperature forecast information derived from this study will be useful not only for forecasting changes in temperature in the future period (1 to 12 months in advance), but also in predicting changes in the hydro-ecological environment, including evapotranspiration highly correlated with temperature.

A Study on the Establishment of Preservation Area for the Preservation of Historical and Cultural Space in the Ancient Village - Focused on the Hongcun, China - (고촌락 역사문화공간 보존을 위한 보호구역 설정 방안 연구 - 중국 굉촌을 중심으로 -)

  • Shin, Hyun-Sil;Dai, Gai-Rong
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.65-73
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    • 2022
  • This paper analyzed the characteristics of ancient villages in Hongcun and the method of resetting the preservation area for the preservation of the changed historical and cultural space in Hongcun through the process of change. To this end, the current status of preservation areas and utilization areas in the village was identified through ancient documents, old paintings, policy materials, and interviews related to the village, and through this, the problem of resetting the preservation area was examined. As a result, the following conclusions were drawn. First, Hongcun is a village built under the influence of Confucianism, Buddhism, and Taoism, and the spatial organization was created according to the hierarchy of Confucianism. As a result, it was possible to inherit and preserve the heritage of ancestors even though the central government did not preserve it. Second, the concept of preservation in a limited sense has been applied as Hongcun has been recognized as a cultural heritage that has been passed down since ancient times, but the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution brought about changes in the village space. Since then, ancient buildings, water systems, and forests have been preserved through regulations on new construction and expansion of a building with the Hongchon preservation plan, but the development within the preservation area is underway due to changes in the lives of original inhabitants, which were followed by continued development pressure and reform and opening. Third, the original inhabitant of ancient villages had a high perception of the value of the heritage, but they demanded the preparation of measures to improve living conditions and create profits, and the active use of villages for this. Fourth, the forest consisting of old trees is being restored, but the gardens in the old house are showing a phenomenon that the garden space is reduced or transformed for use. The bridges and parking lots were newly built in the southern area, which was extended from the western area, the original entrance to the ancient village, resulting in changes in the existing entrance. This was found to be the primary cause of the spatial change of the ancient village, as the road system was modified to make it convenient for tourists to enter and exit. Fifth, the existing preservation area should be reset and preserved by resetting the preservation route centered on Wolso(half Moon Pool), while the surrounding area should be set as a direct and indirect experience space, and according to the hierarchy of each space, the utilization should proceed while the preservation is carried out by crossing the preservation and the utilization.

Satellite-Based Cabbage and Radish Yield Prediction Using Deep Learning in Kangwon-do (딥러닝을 활용한 위성영상 기반의 강원도 지역의 배추와 무 수확량 예측)

  • Hyebin Park;Yejin Lee;Seonyoung Park
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.39 no.5_3
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    • pp.1031-1042
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    • 2023
  • In this study, a deep learning model was developed to predict the yield of cabbage and radish, one of the five major supply and demand management vegetables, using satellite images of Landsat 8. To predict the yield of cabbage and radish in Gangwon-do from 2015 to 2020, satellite images from June to September, the growing period of cabbage and radish, were used. Normalized difference vegetation index, enhanced vegetation index, lead area index, and land surface temperature were employed in this study as input data for the yield model. Crop yields can be effectively predicted using satellite images because satellites collect continuous spatiotemporal data on the global environment. Based on the model developed previous study, a model designed for input data was proposed in this study. Using time series satellite images, convolutional neural network, a deep learning model, was used to predict crop yield. Landsat 8 provides images every 16 days, but it is difficult to acquire images especially in summer due to the influence of weather such as clouds. As a result, yield prediction was conducted by splitting June to July into one part and August to September into two. Yield prediction was performed using a machine learning approach and reference models , and modeling performance was compared. The model's performance and early predictability were assessed using year-by-year cross-validation and early prediction. The findings of this study could be applied as basic studies to predict the yield of field crops in Korea.

Development and validation of the Kkondae tendency scale (꼰대경향성 척도 개발 및 타당화)

  • Ji Hyun Jung;Jin Kook Tak
    • The Korean Journal of Coaching Psychology
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.153-196
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is to development and validate kkondae tendency scale. Kkondae tendencies are defined as "a response pattern to others in a way that values authority in social relationships, is self-centered, and does not accept other people's opinions," and the subjects of the study are workers aged 19 or older who act as seniors, seniors, and bosses in the workplace. In Study 1, 65 preliminary questions were produced with 7 factors for the compositional concept of kkondae tendency through literature review, expert interviews, and open questionnaire survey. In Study 2, a preliminary survey was conducted with 65 questions derived from Study 1. Exploratory factor analysis was conducted based on the responses of a total of 395 people, and 22 items for 4 factors were derived. In Study 3, this survey was conducted with 22 questions derived from Study 2. A total of 880 responses were analyzed, and cross-validation verification was conducted by dividing the data into two groups (Group 1 and Group 2). Exploratory factor analysis was conducted on Group 1 (N=429) to derive 19 items with 4 factors. The four factors are authoritarianism(3 items), egocentrism (5 items), inertial thinking (5 itemss), and one-sided communication (6 items). A confirmatory factor analysis was conducted on 19 questions obtained from Group 1 for Group 2 (N = 451), and 19 questions of four factors were accepted due to the good fit of the model. To verify the convergent validity of the Kkondae tendency scale, the correlation with the Kkondae scale was examined, and to verify the criterion-related validity, the relationship between self-reflection, relationship conflict, social connectedness was examined. All were statistically significant, and convergence validity and criterion-related validity were verified. Finally, discussions on the process and results of this study, differences from related measures, academic significance, practical implications, limitations of the study, and future research directions were presented.

Estimation of potential distribution of sweet potato weevil (Cylas formicarius) and climate change impact using MaxEnt (MaxEnt를 활용한 개미바구미(Cylas formicarius)의 잠재 분포와 기후변화 영향 모의)

  • Jinsol Hong;Heewon Hong;Sumin Pi;Soohyun Lee;Jae Ha Shin;Yongeun Kim;Kijong Cho
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.505-518
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    • 2023
  • The key to invasive pest management lies in preemptive action. However, most current research using species distribution models is conducted after an invasion has occurred. This study modeled the potential distribution of the globally notorious sweet potato pest, the sweet potato weevil(Cylas formicarius), that has not yet invaded Korea using MaxEnt. Using global occurrence data, bioclimatic variables, and topsoil characteristics, MaxEnt showed high explanatory power as both the training and test areas under the curve exceeded 0.9. Among the environmental variables used in this study, minimum temperature in the coldest month (BIO06), precipitation in the driest month (BIO14), mean diurnal range (BIO02), and bulk density (BDOD) were identified as key variables. The predicted global distribution showed high values in most countries where the species is currently present, with a significant potential invasion risk in most South American countries where C. formicarius is not yet present. In Korea, Jeju Island and the southwestern coasts of Jeollanam-do showed very high probabilities. The impact of climate change under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios indicated an expansion along coasts as climate change progresses. By applying the 10th percentile minimum training presence rule, the potential area of occurrence was estimated at 1,439 km2 under current climate conditions and could expand up to 9,485 km2 under the SSP585 scenario. However, the model predicted that an inland invasion would not be serious. The results of this study suggest a need to focus on the risk of invasion in islands and coastal areas.

Analysis of the Effects of Some Meteorological Factors on the Yield Components of Rice (수도 수량구성요소에 미치는 기상영향의 해석적 연구)

  • Seok-Hong Park
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.18
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    • pp.54-87
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    • 1975
  • The effects of various weather factors on yield components of rice, year variation of yield components within regions, and regional differences of yield components within year were investigated at three Crop Experiment Stations O.R.D., Suweon, Iri, Milyang, and at nine provincial Offices of Rural Development for eight years from 1966 to 1973 for the purpose of providing information required in improving cultural practices and predicting the yield level of rice. The experimental results analyzed by standard partial regression analysis are summarized as follows: 1. When rice was grown in ordinary seasonal culture the number of panicles greatly affected rice yield compared to other yield components. However, when rice was seeded in ordinary season and transplanted late, and transplanted in ordinary season in the northern area the ratio of ripening was closely related to the rice yield. 2. The number of panicles showed the greatest year variation when the Jinheung variety was grown in the northern area. The ripening ratio or 1, 000 grain weight also greatly varied due to years. However, the number of spikelets per unit area showed the greatest effects on yield of the Tongil variety. 2. Regional variation of yield components was classified into five groups; 1) Vegetation dependable type (V), 2) Partial vegetation dependable type (P), 3) Medium type (M), 4) Partial ripening dependable type (P.R), and 5) Ripening dependable type (R). In general, the number of kernel of rice in the southern area showed the greatest partial regression coefficient among yield components. However, in the mid-northern part of country the ripening ratio was one of the component!; affecting rice yield most. 4. A multivariate equation was obtained for both normal planting and late planting by log-transforming from the multiplication of each component of four yield components to additive fashion. It revealed that a more accurate yield could be estimated from the above equation in both cases of ordinary seasonal culture and late transplanting. 5. A highly positive correlation coefficient was obtained between the number of tillers from 20 days after transplanting and the number of panicles at each(tillering) stage 20 days after transplanting in normal planting and late planting methods. 6. A close relationship was found between the number of panicles and weather factors 21 to 30 days, after transplanting. 7. The average temperature 31 to 40 days after transplanting was greatly responsible for the maximum number of tillers while the number of duration of sunshine hours per day 11 to 30 days after transplantation was responsible for that character. The effect of water temperature was negligible. 8. No reasonable prediction for number of panicles was calculated from using either number of tillers or climatic factors. The number of panicles could early be estimated formulating a multiple equation using number of tillers 20 days after transplantation and maximum temperature, temperature range and duration of sunshine for the period of 20 days from 20 to 40 days after transplantation. 9. The effects of maximum temperature and day length 25 to 34 days before heading, on kernel number per panicle, were great in the mid-northern area. However, the minimum temperature and day length greatly affected the kernel number per panicle in the southern area. The maximum temperature had a negative relationship with the kernel number per panicle in the southern area. 10. The maximum temperature was highly responsible for an increased ripening ratio. On the other hand, the minimum temperature at pre-heading and early ripening stages showed an adverse effect on ripening ratio. 11. The 1, 000 grain weight was greatly affected by the maximum temperature during pre- or mid-ripening stage and was negatively associated with the minimum temperature over the entire ripening period.

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Dose Planning of Forward Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy for Nasopharyngeal Cancer using Compensating Filters (보상여과판을 이용한 비인강암의 전방위 강도변조 방사선치료계획)

  • Chu Sung Sil;Lee Sang-wook;Suh Chang Ok;Kim Gwi Eon
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.53-65
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    • 2001
  • Purpose : To improve the local control of patients with nasopharyngeal cancer, we have implemented 3-D conformal radiotherapy and forward intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) to used of compensating filters. Three dimension conformal radiotherapy with intensity modulation is a new modality for cancer treatments. We designed 3-D treatment planning with 3-D RTP (radiation treatment planning system) and evaluation dose distribution with tumor control probability (TCP) and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Material and Methods : We have developed a treatment plan consisting four intensity modulated photon fields that are delivered through the compensating tilters and block transmission for critical organs. We get a full size CT imaging including head and neck as 3 mm slices, and delineating PTV (planning target volume) and surrounding critical organs, and reconstructed 3D imaging on the computer windows. In the planning stage, the planner specifies the number of beams and their directions including non-coplanar, and the prescribed doses for the target volume and the permissible dose of normal organs and the overlap regions. We designed compensating filter according to tissue deficit and PTV volume shape also dose weighting for each field to obtain adequate dose distribution, and shielding blocks weighting for transmission. Therapeutic gains were evaluated by numerical equation of tumor control probability and normal tissue complication probability. The TCP and NTCP by DVH (dose volume histogram) were compared with the 3-D conformal radiotherapy and forward intensity modulated conformal radiotherapy by compensator and blocks weighting. Optimization for the weight distribution was peformed iteration with initial guess weight or the even weight distribution. The TCP and NTCP by DVH were compared with the 3-D conformal radiotherapy and intensitiy modulated conformal radiotherapy by compensator and blocks weighting. Results : Using a four field IMRT plan, we have customized dose distribution to conform and deliver sufficient dose to the PTV. In addition, in the overlap regions between the PTV and the normal organs (spinal cord, salivary grand, pituitary, optic nerves), the dose is kept within the tolerance of the respective organs. We evaluated to obtain sufficient TCP value and acceptable NTCP using compensating filters. Quality assurance checks show acceptable agreement between the planned and the implemented MLC(multi-leaf collimator). Conclusion : IMRT provides a powerful and efficient solution for complex planning problems where the surrounding normal tissues place severe constraints on the prescription dose. The intensity modulated fields can be efficaciously and accurately delivered using compensating filters.

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Risk Factor Analysis for Preventing Foodborne Illness in Restaurants and the Development of Food Safety Training Materials (레스토랑 식중독 예방을 위한 위해 요소 규명 및 위생교육 매체 개발)

  • Park, Sung-Hee;Noh, Jae-Min;Chang, Hye-Ja;Kang, Young-Jae;Kwak, Tong-Kyung
    • Korean journal of food and cookery science
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.589-600
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    • 2007
  • Recently, with the rapid expansion of the franchise restaurants, ensuring food safety has become essential for restaurant growth. Consequently, the need for food safety training and related material is in increasing demand. In this study, we identified potentially hazardous risk factors for ensuring food safety in restaurants through a food safety monitoring tool, and developed training materials for restaurant employees based on the results. The surveyed restaurants, consisting of 6 Korean restaurants and 1 Japanese restaurant were located in Seoul. Their average check was 15,500 won, ranging from 9,000 to 23,000 won. The range of their total space was 297.5 to $1322.4m^2$, and the amount of kitchen space per total area ranged from 4.4 to 30 percent. The mean score for food safety management performance was 57 out of 100 points, with a range of 51 to 73 points. For risk factor analysis, the most frequently cited sanitary violations involved the handwashing methods/handwashing facilities supplies (7.5%), receiving activities (7.5%), checking and recording of frozen/refrigerated foods temperature (0%), holding foods off the floor (0%), washing of fruits and vegetables (42%), planning and supervising facility cleaning and maintaining programs of facilities (50%), pest control (13%), and toilet equipped/cleaned (13%). Base on these results, the main points that were addressed in the hygiene training of restaurant employees included 4 principles and 8 concepts. The four principles consisted of personal hygiene, prevention of food contamination, time/temperature control, and refrigerator storage. The eight concepts included: (1) personal hygiene and cleanliness with proper handwashing, (2) approved food source and receiving management (3) refrigerator and freezer control, (4) storage management, (5) labeling, (6) prevention of food contamination, (7) cooking and reheating control, and (8) cleaning, sanitation, and plumbing control. Finally, a hygiene training manual and poster leaflets were developed as a food safety training materials for restaurants employees.

A Basic Study on Spatial Recognition through Poet in Soswaewon Garden (시문을 통해 본 소쇄원의 공간인식에 관한 기초연구)

  • Lee, Won-Ho;Kim, Dong-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.38-49
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    • 2015
  • This study aims to contemplated spatial recognition in Soswaewon Garden through garden visitors poetry. It was content analysis in poetry and extract frequency from words based on relationship of author. The results were as follows. First, relationship of authors who wrote Soswaewon Garden poetry was formed in companionship. In the Yang, San-Bo(梁山甫), poetry was written by Song, Soon(宋純), Kim, Un-Geo(金彦据) and Kim, In-Hu(金麟厚) as the central figure. Especially Kim, In-Hu was playing an important role in Soswaewon Garden poetry. He was wrote many of poetry and keep friends with Yang, Ja-Jeong(梁子渟) too. In the Yang, Ja-Jung, relationship of previous generation was sustained. In addition, Ko, Gyeong-Myeong(高敬命) and Kim, Seong-Won and Jeong, Chul(鄭澈) is more closely related than others. Because blood relationship by marriage. In the Yang, Jin-Tae(梁晋泰), He formed a relationship with a celebrity and attend to international activity. Since then Yang, Jin-Tae periord, Yang, Gyeong-Ji(梁敬之) and Yang, Chae-Ji(梁采之) formed relationship of previous generation was sustained. And surrounding people was written poetry as hold a banquet. Second, plant and ornament is a popular object for writing poetry. Bamboo grove and Fine tree with a high frequency of plant element in poetry. Bamboo grove is a typical species of trees in Soswaewon Garden. It was enclosed the Soswaewon Garden. Fine tree was often used target of poetry as a single tree. Meanwhile, ornament of the wall has been used most frequently. Descendants wrote a poem to see it because Kim, In-Hu's poetry was left. This phenomenon is involves respect for the ancient sages with high frequency. In addition, behavior of viewing the landscape was mainly appeared. Third, spatial recognition of Soswaewon Garden can be divided into landscape cognition, behavior cognition and emotional cognition. In a aspect of landscape cognition, early Soswaewon Garden was recognized as a pavilion. That was used garden name to 'Soswaewon Garden' since Yang, Ja-Jung's period. That is to say, Soswaewon Garden expanded from pavilion area surrounded by trees into the whole appearance is equipped garden area. Behavior cognition was consisting drink and enjoys a landscape. In the Yang, San-Bo, authors enjoyed drinking and viewing a landscape besides walking, writing poetry, viewing the moon. But after Yang, San-Bo's period other than drinking and enjoy a landscape has appeared a low frequency. These results were changed from internal place to blood relationship into external place to companionship. In the Yang, San-Bo's emotional cognition was sorrow and yearning about leave to Soswaewon Garden with an idly atmosphere. Pleasant emotion was sustained all generation. And emotion of respect for the ancient sages was appeared since Yang, Cheon-un.

Construction of Consumer Confidence index based on Sentiment analysis using News articles (뉴스기사를 이용한 소비자의 경기심리지수 생성)

  • Song, Minchae;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 2017
  • It is known that the economic sentiment index and macroeconomic indicators are closely related because economic agent's judgment and forecast of the business conditions affect economic fluctuations. For this reason, consumer sentiment or confidence provides steady fodder for business and is treated as an important piece of economic information. In Korea, private consumption accounts and consumer sentiment index highly relevant for both, which is a very important economic indicator for evaluating and forecasting the domestic economic situation. However, despite offering relevant insights into private consumption and GDP, the traditional approach to measuring the consumer confidence based on the survey has several limits. One possible weakness is that it takes considerable time to research, collect, and aggregate the data. If certain urgent issues arise, timely information will not be announced until the end of each month. In addition, the survey only contains information derived from questionnaire items, which means it can be difficult to catch up to the direct effects of newly arising issues. The survey also faces potential declines in response rates and erroneous responses. Therefore, it is necessary to find a way to complement it. For this purpose, we construct and assess an index designed to measure consumer economic sentiment index using sentiment analysis. Unlike the survey-based measures, our index relies on textual analysis to extract sentiment from economic and financial news articles. In particular, text data such as news articles and SNS are timely and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. There exist two main approaches to the automatic extraction of sentiment from a text, we apply the lexicon-based approach, using sentiment lexicon dictionaries of words annotated with the semantic orientations. In creating the sentiment lexicon dictionaries, we enter the semantic orientation of individual words manually, though we do not attempt a full linguistic analysis (one that involves analysis of word senses or argument structure); this is the limitation of our research and further work in that direction remains possible. In this study, we generate a time series index of economic sentiment in the news. The construction of the index consists of three broad steps: (1) Collecting a large corpus of economic news articles on the web, (2) Applying lexicon-based methods for sentiment analysis of each article to score the article in terms of sentiment orientation (positive, negative and neutral), and (3) Constructing an economic sentiment index of consumers by aggregating monthly time series for each sentiment word. In line with existing scholarly assessments of the relationship between the consumer confidence index and macroeconomic indicators, any new index should be assessed for its usefulness. We examine the new index's usefulness by comparing other economic indicators to the CSI. To check the usefulness of the newly index based on sentiment analysis, trend and cross - correlation analysis are carried out to analyze the relations and lagged structure. Finally, we analyze the forecasting power using the one step ahead of out of sample prediction. As a result, the news sentiment index correlates strongly with related contemporaneous key indicators in almost all experiments. We also find that news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity in most cases. In almost all experiments, the news sentiment index strongly correlates with related contemporaneous key indicators. Furthermore, in most cases, news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity; in head-to-head comparisons, the news sentiment measures outperform survey-based sentiment index as CSI. Policy makers want to understand consumer or public opinions about existing or proposed policies. Such opinions enable relevant government decision-makers to respond quickly to monitor various web media, SNS, or news articles. Textual data, such as news articles and social networks (Twitter, Facebook and blogs) are generated at high-speeds and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. Although research using unstructured data in economic analysis is in its early stages, but the utilization of data is expected to greatly increase once its usefulness is confirmed.