• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.909-922
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• 2019

In this paper, we study the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) for the unstable autoregressive (AR) model. To identify the existence of the unit root, we apply the adaptive LASSO to the augmented Dickey-Fuller regression model, not the original AR model. We illustrate our method with simulations and a real data analysis. Simulation results show that the adaptive LASSO obtained by minimizing the Bayesian information criterion selects the order of the autoregressive model as well as the degree of differencing with high accuracy.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.415-415
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• 2021

농업시설의 확장과 함께 수자원으로서 지하수의 중요성이 점차 커지면서 지하수 수질 특성을 설명하기 위하여 강수량과 지하수 그리고 전기전도도의 상관관계를 정확하게 이해하는 것이 매우 중요하다. 많은 연구에서 선행 강수를 고려한 누적이동강수량을 사용하여 지하수위와 강수량의 상관관계를 분석하였다. 최근 기후변화로 인해 줄어든 강수일수와 강수량으로 인하여 지하수 수질 변동의 장기간 분석이 어려워짐에 따라 지하수 수질변동에 대한 강수량의 단기간 영향을 규명하기 위하여 지하수위 변동량과 강수량의 상관관계를 이해할 필요가 있다. 지하수위 변동량은 지하수 함양률 산정 및 함양 특성 분석 등 지하수 변동 특성을 분석하는 데 있어서 매우 중요한 자료이다. 본 연구에서는 충남 예산 효교리에서 2019년 7월 1일부터 2020년 6월 30일까지 지하수위와 전기전도도를 관측하였고 지하수위와 전기전도도 변동량을 강수량과 비교 분석함으로써 단기적인 변동 특성을 해석하고 상관관계를 도출하였다. 먼저, 강수량과 지하수위, 전기전도도의 시계열 분석을 통한 교차상관분석(cross-correlation)을 수행하여 자료 간에 지연 시간(lag time)을 산정하였다. 다음, 지연 시간을 고려하여 강수량과 지하수위 변동량의 상관성 분석과 강수량과 전기전도도 변동량의 상관성 분석을 수행하였다.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.45 no.5
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• pp.181-200
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• 2020

The Korea-Canada FTA and the EVTA have adopted cross-cumulation clauses in their rules of origin, aiming at the enhancement of the value chains among the FTA parties. In fact, intricate rules of origin are often considered as the major cause that discourages the utilization of the agreement for the exporting firms. From this perspective, the correct understanding of cross-cumulation clauses in FTAs is an urgent mission for the Korean exporters as well, and the EVTA, which has recently introduced the cross-cumulation method in a linkage with the Korea-EU FTA provides the timely motivation. This paper first analyzes the Korea-Canada FTA of 2015 as for the case study, because this is a unique trade agreement for Korea that has already adopted the cross-cumulation clauses. It is concluded that the clause is rather vague, particularly in certifying the origins of the intermediate goods from the territory of an authorized third party. From this perspective, the recently-ratified EVTA is particularly important and meaningful with its clearer explanations for the utilization of the privileged rules of origin. The paper finalizes the study by making policy suggestions to the stakeholders, expecting more future FTAs to come equipped with similar cumulative rules of origin, and implies the possibility of the modification of the current clauses in the FTA with Canada.

• Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.265-285
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• 2004

Objectives: The acute toxic effects of pesticide are well known. Concern has also been expressed that long-term exposure may result in damage to the central nervous system. This study was conducted to test the hypothesis that central nervous system symptoms might occur due to pesticide exposure. Methods: In a cross-sectional study, first, cumulative exposure index (CEI) was estimated. Neurologic symptoms (Q-16 questionnaire) for 541 farmers (exposed to pesticides) were compared with 119 non-exposed persons in spraying season nine rural areas in Korea. Results: The pesticides poisoning rates for last 3 months were 67.2% for orchard farmers, 55.3%for dry field farmers, and 20.5% for husbandry farmers, respectively, showing significant difference (p<0.001). Compared with non-exposure group, exposure groups (especially, orchard farmers) reported significantly more neurologic symptoms and had a higher overall neurological symptoms score (p<0.001). Factors related to the positive neurological symptoms (answers "yes" to six or more of Q-16 questionnaire) adjusted for age, sex, education level, smoking and alcohol drinking were type of farming (OR 3.08, 95% CI 1.50-6.30 in orchard farmers vs non-exposure group), CEI (OR 2.75, 95% CI 1.12-6.78 in Q3 vs Q1), past poisoning (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.21-3.20 vs normal), current mild poisoning (OR 3.03, 9500 CI 1.47-6.22 vs normal) and current moderate poisoning (OR 6.34, 95% CI 3.03-13.25 vs normal), respectively. Conclusions: These results suggest that long-term exposure to pesticides appears to be associated with subtle changes in the central nervous system.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.340-348
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• 2020

The purpose of this study was to investigate the mutual relationship between parenting stress and children's problem behaviors among those participating in dream start services. In order to verify the effect of parental and child effects on child's problem behavior and parenting stress based on repeated measures from the first grade of elementary school to the third grade of elementary school among children participating in dream start services, autoregressive cross-lagged modeling was applied. As a result, the stability coefficient showed that the two variables were significantly stable for 3 years. In other words, the measurement was maintained at a similar level with time. The causal relationship between parents 'parenting stress and child' s problem behavior was generally explained by the parental effect. In other words, parental stress is related to the child's problem behavior. These results show that the economic stress of poverty increases parents' parenting stress, which can negatively affect the adaptive development of children in the process of raising children.

• Explosives and Blasting
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.7-13
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• 2000

Abstract The characteristics of bed rock in the study area was classified by means of the crack coefficient estimated from the seismic velocities of in-situ and intact rocks. Various statistical methods were investigated in order to minimize the possible errors in estimating the predictive equation of blasting vibration and to enhance the determination coefficient $R^2$, for more reliable estimation. The determination coefficient showed the highest in the analysis for those groups using weighting function with the number of samples. The analysis for the weighting function employed with standard coefficient and variance also enhanced the determination coefficients significantly compared to the others, but the reliability was slightly lower than results obtained former method. Therefore the most reliable predictive equation of blasting vibration was found to be obtained from a regression analysis of the mean vibration level using the weighting of same distance groups within 15m with the same explosive charge weight per delay. The coefficients, K and n 317.4 and -1.66, respectively, when using the square root scaling, and 209.9 and -1.66, respectively, when using the cube root scaling. The analysis also showed that the square root scaling may be used in the distance less than 31m form the blast source, and the cube root scaling in the distance more than 31m for safe design.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.179-187
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• 2009

This study develops a real-time signal control algorithm based on sectional travel times and includes a field test and evaluation. The objective function of the signal control algorithm is the equalization of delay of traffic movements, and the main process is calculating dissolved time of the queue and delay using the sectional travel time and detection time of individual vehicles. Then this algorithm calculates the delay variation and a targeted red time and calculates the length of the cycle and phase. A progression factor from the US HCM was applied as a method to consider the effect of coordinating the delay calculation, and this algorithm uses the average delay and detection time of probe vehicles, which were collected during the accumulated cycle for a stabile signal control. As a result of the field test and evaluation through the application of the traffic signal control algorithm on four consecutive intersections at 400m intervals, reduction of delay and an equalization effect of delay against TOD control were confirmed using the standard deviation of delay by traffic movements. This study was conducted to develop a real-time traffic signal control algorithm based on sectional travel time, using general-purpose traffic information detectors. With the current practice of disseminating ubiquitous technology, the aim of this study was a fundamental change of the traffic signal control method.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.23 no.7
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• pp.587-596
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• 2002

A super ensemble model was developed for the seasonal prediction of regional precipitation in Korea using the lag correlated large scale predictors, based on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis and multiple linear regression model. The predictability of this model was also evaluated by cross-validation. Correlation between the predicted and the observed value obtained from the super ensemble model showed 0.73 in spring, 0.61 in summer, 0.69 in autumn and 0.75 in winter. The predictability of categorical forecasting was also evaluated based on the three classes such as above normal, near normal and below normal that are clearly defined in terms of a priori specified by threshold values. Categorical forecasting by the super ensemble model has a hit rate with a range from 0.42 to 0.74 in seasonal precipitation.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.23 no.8 s.86
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• pp.203-213
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• 2005

Recently, with the increase of the interest to global environmental problems, bicycle has been recognized as the most environmentally friendly transportation mode. To promote cycling, it is necessary to ensure road space that bicycle can keep running safely and smoothly. This paper aims to evaluate the district with rearranged road space and network, given priority to bicycle, comparing the traditional district which are given priority to car from viewpoints of environment, safety and accessibility. As evaluation indicators, the carbon dioxide emission on the environment. the number of collision between car and bicycle on safety and an accumulated frequency measure on accessibility were used. As the result, it was clarified that bicycle road measures to create bicycle road by reallocation of road space and form bicycle exclusive network were effective.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.310-310
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• 2019

본 연구에서는 기상청 ASOS(종관기상관측장비) 자료와 통계적 기반의 다중회귀분석모형을 이용하여 경안천 유역에 대한 봄철 강수량(3~5월 누적강수량)의 예측성을 평가하였다. 예측대상기간은 2006~2018년이며 예측인자로서 전국 96개 지점의 ASOS 자료 중 35개 기상요소에 대한 월 자료를 활용하였다. 전망기간(1~12개월)에 따라 강수량 기준 최소 1개월에서 최대 24개월까지의 지체시간을 고려하여 1~24개월 선행 ASOS 기상자료와 강수량 사이의 상관성을 분석하였다. 예측대상년도를 기준으로 과거 40년간의 자료를 이용하여 상관성 분석을 수행하였으며, 상관성이 높은 상위 30개 기상인자를 조합하여 다중회귀분석모형의 예측인자(독립변수)로 활용하였다. 예측대상년도와 전망기간에 따라 최적의 예측인자를 조합하고, 교차검증을 통하여 각각 4,000개의 다중회귀모형을 도출하여 예측범위를 산출하였다. 다중회귀모형에 의한 예측범위를 분석한 결과, 2013년 자료까지는 예측범위가 관측값을 잘 포함하고 예측값의 평균이나 중간값이 관측값과 유사하게 나타난 반면, 2014년부터는 전망기간에 따라 관측값과 예측범위의 차이가 크게 나타나는 경우도 있었다. 예측치의 중간값을 기준으로 3분위(평년 이상, 평년 수준, 평년 이하) 적중률을 분석하면, 2006~2013년에 대해서는 58.3%인 반면, 2014~2018년에 대해서는 11.2% 수준으로 나타났다.