• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.44-44
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• 2023

지표면 위 에너지 수지, 즉 순 복사에너지가 어떤 비율로 지열, 현열, 잠열로 분할되는지를 이해하는 것은 매우 중요한 문제이지만, 에너지 분할과 주변 환경 변수 사이의 인과관계를 역학적으로 설명하는 것은 난제로 남아있다. 이 연구에서는 지표면 에너지 분할에서 어떠한 조건에서라도 보편적으로 발견되는 특성을 찾아서 다양한 식생 조건에서 관측된 복사에너지 및 열 플럭스 관측소의 자료를 토대로 각 에너지 항의 시간 변동성을 분석했다. 시계열 분석을 위해 공분산 기법을 통해 관측한 현열 및 잠열 자료를 제공하는 Fluxnet 자료를 사용했으며, International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) 구분법에 따라 낙엽수림, 상록수림, 농지 및 사바나에 위치한 관측소의 자료를 비교 분석했다. 모든 관측소에서 에너지 수지에서 현열과 잠열의 합이 전체 순 복사에너지에서 차지하는 비중은 시간에 따라 큰 변화를 보이지 않는다는 특성을 발견했다. 하지만, 현열 또는 잠열이 차지하는 비중은 큰 계절성을 보여주고 있었다. 이를 종합하면 현열과 잠열이 상호보완적으로 발생한다는 것을 의미한다. 한편 시간에 따른 두 열 플럭스의 움직임은 해당 관측소 근처에서 서식하는 식생 특성과 깊게 관련됐음을 확인했다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.224-224
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• 2017

지구온난화로 인한 기후변화 등으로 안전한 하천구조물을 설계하기 위해서는 신뢰할 수 있는 홍수량 산정이 필요하다. 신뢰할 수 있는 홍수량 산정을 위해서는 정도 높은 과거 수문자료가 필요하나 국내의 많은 중소 규모유역이 미계측 유역 또는 과거 수문자료 부족으로 신뢰 할 수 있는 홍수량 산정이 어려운 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 미계측 유역의 홍수량 산정을 위하여 확률분포모형(PDM)의 매개변수 지역화를 수행하였다. 매개변수 지역화 연구를 수행하기 위하여, 금강 25개 유역을 대상으로 유역별 9~18개의 단기홍수수문사상을 선정하였다. 선정된 단기홍수수문사상을 확률분포모형에 적용하기위하여, MCAT (Monte Carlo Analysis Toolbox)을 활용하여 검정 및 검증을 수행하였으며, 목적함수는 수문곡선 모든 구간을 반영하는 NSE (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency)와 고유량 부분을 반영하는 RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) - FH를 적용하였다. 각각의 목적함수에 대하여 검정 모형 매개변수와 유역 특성인자의 다중 선형회귀식을 강우유출모형 매개변수 지역화 모형으로 제시하였다. 매개변수 지역화 결과의 평가를 위하여 청주 유역을 미계측 유역으로 가정하였다. 청주 유역에 대하여 지역화 매개변수를 적용한 결과, 17개의 사상 중 11개의 사상에서 NSE 목적함수 값이 0.5이상으로 전체적인 수문곡선의 경향성을 보였으며, 첨두 홍수량은 17개 사상 중 11개 사상에서 관측 첨두 홍수량 값의 20%이내를 제시하여 적합한 결과를 제시하였다. 또한 금강 25개 유역에 Jackknife 방법으로 검정 결과 관측 첨두 홍수량 값 20%이내의 성능을 보이는 사상이 56%를 포함하고 있어 의미있는 지역화 모형을 제시하였다고 판단된다. 본 연구에서 제시한 매개변수 지역화 방법은 미계측 유역의 유출모의에 활용될 수 있음을 확인하였다.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.25 no.9
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• pp.5-14
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• 2024

In Korea, torrential rain frequency and intensity have surged over the past five years (2019-2023), breaking rainfall records. Due to insufficient observation facilities for rainfall and runoff data in small mountainous catchments, preparing for unexpected floods is challenging. This study examines the Bidogyo catchment in Goesan-gun, Chungcheongbuk-do, comparing design flood discharge calculated with optimized parameters versus standard guidelines. Using HEC-HMS and Q-GIS for model construction, five rainfall events were analyzed with data from the National Water Resources Management Information System. The time of concentration (Tc) and storage constant (K) were calculated using the Seokyeongdae formula and model optimization. Results showed that optimized parameters produced higher objective function values for flood events. The design flood discharge varied by -10.7% to 17.3% from the standard guidelines when using optimized parameters. Moreover, optimized parameters yielded flood discharges closer to observed values, highlighting limitations of the Seokyeongdae formula for all catchments. Further research aims to develop suitable parameter estimation methods for small mountainous catchments in Korea.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.10 s.171
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• pp.867-880
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• 2006

Hydrological models with many parameters and complex model structures require a powerful and detailed model calibration/validation scheme. In this study, we proposed a multi-variable and multi-site calibration and validation framework for the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model applied in the Gap-cheon catchment located downstream of the Geum river basin. The sensitivity analysis conducted before main calibration helped understand various hydrological processes and the characteristics of subcatchments by identifying sensitive parameters in the model. In addition, the model's parameters were estimated based on existing data prior to calibration in order to increase the validity of model. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients and correlation coefficient were used to estimate compare model output with the observed streamflow data: $R_{eff}\;and\;R^2$ ranged 0.41-0.84 and 0.5-0.86, respectively, at the Heuduck station. Model reproduced baseflow estimated using recursive digital filter except for 2-5% overestimation at the Sindae and Boksu stations. Model also reproduced the temporal variability and fluctuation magnitude of observed groundwater levels with $R^2$ of 0.71 except for certain periods. Therefore, it was concluded that the use of multi-variable and multi-site method provided high confidence for the structure and estimated parameter values of the model.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.30 no.6B
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• pp.551-560
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• 2010

This study presents the export of constituent transport loads through a river system. The proposed constituent transport load estimating procedure can be operated with the on-going Korean TMDL monitoring system. This study firstly discusses the use of a hydrologic simulation model (TANK) to estimate stream-flow for the 40 sub-catchments. Model parameters are estimated from 8-days intervals flow data which has been monitored by NIER since 2004. Constituent transport loads are estimated with the 7-parameter log linear model whose parameters are estimated by the minimum variance unbiased estimator. Results from Nakdong river basin reveals that the proposed procedure provides satisfactory TN, TP and SS transport load estimates. As an application, a representative load duration curve is derived to represent the overall hydrologic flux of TN, TP and SS at Nakdong river basin.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.331-341
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• 2009

In this study, we compared the observed information matrix with the Fisher information matrix to estimate the uncertainty of maximum likelihood estimators of the generalized logistic (GL) distribution. The previous literatures recommended the use of the observed information matrix because this is convenient since this matrix is determined as the part of the parameter estimation procedure and there is little difference in accuracy between the observed information matrix and the Fisher information matrix for large sample size. The observed information matrix has been applied for the generalized logistic distribution based on the previous study without verification. For this purpose, a simulation experiment was performed to verify which matrix gave the better accuracy for the GL model. The simulation results showed that the variance-covariance of the ML parameters for the GL distribution came up with similar results to those of previous literature, but it is preferable to use of the Fisher information matrix to estimate the uncertainty of quantile of ML estimators.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.773-784
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• 2014

This study evaluated the applicability of the Modified Bartlett-Lewis Rectangular Pulse (MBLRP) rainfall generation model for modeling extreme rainfalls and floods in Korean Peninsula. Firstly, using the ISPSO (Isolated Species Particle Swarm Optimization) method, the parameters of the MBLRP model were estimated at the 61 ASOS (Automatic Surface Observation System) rain gauges located across Korean Peninsula. Then, the synthetic rainfall time series with the length of 100 years were generated using the MBLRP model for each of the rain gauges. Finally, design rainfalls and design floods with various recurrence intervals were estimated based on the generated synthetic rainfall time series, which were compared to the values based on the observed rainfall time series. The results of the comparison indicate that the design rainfalls based on the synthetic rainfall time series were smaller than the ones based on the observation by 20% to 42%. The amount of underestimation increased with the increase of return period. In case of the design floods, the degree of underestimation was 31% to 50%, which increases along with the return period of flood and the curve number of basin.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.36 no.3 s.134
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• pp.423-436
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• 2003

The objective of this study is to propose an automatic parameter estimation scheme considering runoff components of Tank model. It estimates model parameters by Powell's automatic algorithm based on the runoff component separation of the observed hydrograph by using digital filter method. The selected study areas are the 4 main dam sites on the Han River. The simulated flows are compared with the observed flows depending on whether runoff component consideration or not. As a result, the estimated model parameters from classical Powell's method only can relatively well simulate the time variation of total runoff, but gives poor runoff component simulations. Therefore, it can be concluded that the proposed automatic parameter estimation scheme in this study Is more reliable and objective.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.30 no.5
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• pp.615-632
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• 2017

Unlike randomized trial, statistical strategies for inferring the unbiased causal relationship are required in the observational studies. The matching with the propensity score is one of the most popular methods to control the confounders in order to evaluate the effect of the treatment on the outcome variable. Recently, new methods for the causal inference in latent class analysis (LCA) have been proposed to estimate the average causal effect (ACE) of the treatment on the latent discrete variable. They have focused on the application study for the real dataset to estimate the ACE in LCA. In practice, however, the true values of the ACE are not known, and it is difficult to evaluate the performance of the estimated the ACE. In this study, we propose a method to generate a synthetic data using the propensity score in the framework of LCA, where treatment and outcome variables are latent. We then propose a new method for estimating the ACE in LCA and evaluate its performance via simulation studies. Furthermore we present an empirical analysis based on data form the 'National Longitudinal Study of Adolescents Health,' where puberty as a latent treatment and substance use as a latent outcome variable.

• Proceedings of the Korean Environmental Sciences Society Conference
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• 2016.10a
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• pp.197-197
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• 2016