• International Area Studies Review
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.549-570
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• 2011

The purpose of this article is to review the current states and future trends in the more developed countries(MDC), the less developed countries(LDC), and Korea. In 2009, the percentage of persons ages 65 and older in the world's population is 8%. However, the ratio of elderly to the total population is higher in MDC than LDC (and Korea). In future, population ageing will be a serious social problem in the LDC (and Korea). Population ageing process will occur at a much faster rate in LDC (and Korea). The reason is that the demographic transition in LDC (and Korea) has occurred in much shorter and recent periods. Though the ageing indices such as the old-age dependency ratio, aging index, and the median ages are higher in MDC, they will change rapidly in LDC. In addition, the oldest old population will increase in LDC than MDC. Therefore, when establishing the government policy related to population ageing, we need to consider the different population ageing process between in MDC and in Korea(or LDC).

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.1-28
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• 2012

In this study, labor force projections are made in order to examine the process and magnitude of labor shortage caused by population ageing in Korea. Starting from theoretical review and analysis of population projection data, this study presents that serious transitions of labor market are expected to begin between 2020 and 2030. This study shows even in case of encouraging higher labor participation, labor shortage cannot be offset but only delay and alleviate effects of population ageing. Finally, this study points out some important implications of labor policy including sensitive social and political issues which should be considered.

• 가정의 벗
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• v.36 no.10 s.422
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• pp.6-7
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• 2003

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.185-194
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• 2012

Population aging in Korea is in progress rapidly, though it isn't recognized as a critical situation now. Absolute scale of population will decrease since 2030 and that of 2050 will stay in 2005 levels. But most serious problem is that the core working age group, 25-54 ages will begin to decrease since 2012 because of low fertility and population aging. In these situation of population aging, we will face inevitably great amount of labor force shortages and we should build up policy alternatives for solving these problems. I proposed some policy alternatives. firstly, pronatalism policies including state-supported child-care system for preventing decreases of absolute scale of population. Second, facing up to labor shortages under population aging, I proposed policy alternatives for increasing labor market participation, measured by employmeny rate, of aged (or aging) people including wage-peak system of extending retiring ages and women including lowering opportunity costs of women labor market participation rates, given laboer forces. And to conclude, we should approach to the aging problems by steady state equilibrium ecnomic growth, under inevitable population aging.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.64 no.4
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• pp.337-357
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• 2012

This study explores a changing social expenditure structure of welfare states on new social risks, using logistic regression analysis with Panel Corrected Standard Errors Model on panel data of 1997-2007 years from 27 OECD nations. The result of this study presents that social expenditure structures have been adjusted with new social risk structure due to trade openness, female employment rates, and child population rates. Greater trade openness, higher women's employment rates, and lower child population rates are, more social investment expenditures are than income security expenditures. Rates of employment in service industries and elderly population rates are not statistically significant on the change of social expenditure structure. This result does not imply a complete switch from demand-based to supply-based social policy, but somewhat reflects transitions of a social welfare system for changing economic and social environments in order to sustain welfare state economically.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.242-257
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• 2012

Korea's population change trend is the aging and feminization as Reduction in mortality, average life extension. and is further increased Reduction of birth rate and aging population. if Our country concluded FTA(Free Trade Agreement) with the United States, Europe and China etc. labor-intensive industries will be the decline. Then, the construction workers' jobs are continually reduced. This is critical to the nation's economic, social and environmental influences due to Shortage of construction workforce and increasing labor costs. Eventually this is a major factor in reduced construction productivity. Therefore, this study is presented as a construction productivity development prospects on the value-added analysis per Labour productivity employee from Construction market trends, industry-specific productivity index, industry trends Employed, age tiered workforce trends, women's workforce trends, labor time trend, foreign workers, workforce trends, analysis of trends in construction contract, awarded by Company Size trends, construction management analysis index.

• Journal of Teachers' Pension
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• v.2
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• pp.181-206
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• 2017

출산율 하락과 기대여명 증가에 따라 인구구조의 고령화가 급격히 진행되고 있다. 이에 따라 소득보장이나 건강보장과 같은 사회보장제도의 장기 재정 불안정과 관련된 사회적 우려가 높다. 여러 세대를 거쳐 사회보장제도를 안정적으로 유지하기 위해서는 제도의 장기적 재정 상태에 대한 정확한 전망이 요청된다. 재정 상태에 대한 정확한 진단은 장기 재정 안정화를 위한 가장 기본적인 전제 조건이며, 정확한 재정 상태에 대한 평가 없이 재정 안정화를 위한 사회적 합의를 도출하는 것은 가능하지 않다. 본 연구는 사학연금의 장기 재정 전망에 필요한 사망률 전망 방법을 검토함으로써 사학연금 장기 재정 전망 작업의 정확성과 신뢰성을 높이고자 하는 목적을 가지고 있다. 보다 구체적으로, 본 연구는 연앙인구 및 사망 건수 자료가 제한적인 동시에 단기 시계열 자료만이 존재하는 사학연금 데이터베이스의 특성을 반영한 사망률 전망 모형을 구축하고 있다. 사학연금 남성 사망률 전망과 관련하여 본 연구에서 제안하는 모형은 목표 집단의 사망력 패턴과 밀접히 연관된 준거 집단을 통합적으로 모형화하는 정합적 사망률 모형(coherent mortality model)이다. 반면 관측된 사망 건수가 매우 제한적인 관계로 사학연금 데이터베이스에 기초하여 사망률을 전망하기 쉽지 않은 여성 사망률의 경우 통계청 장래인구추계에서 전망된 성별 사망확률 격차가 사학연금에도 적용될 수 있다는 가정하에 사학연금 여성 사망률을 전망하는 방법을 제안하고 있다.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.27-54
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of policy boosting fertility and labor participation rate on potential GDP growth rate. To do this, we employ a growth accounting approach, which decomposes per capita GDP into two parts. The first one is the change of dependency ratio and the other is the change of labor input. The labor input is again decomposed into the qualitative and quantitative parts. The quantitative part considers the change of labor participation rate and working time. The qualitative aspects is based on the trend of productivity of labor. From the scenarios of NSO(National Statistics Office), the effect of the fertility-raising policy on per capita potential GDP growth rate is calculated and projected to the year of 2050. We also forecast the policy effect inducing high labor participating rate of female labor and beyond 55-year old labor. The baseline results show that the per capita GDP growth rate will show mid 4% to the year of 2010, gradually declining to 3.94% by 2020, 3.03% by 2030, 2.41% by 2040. The high fertility rate scenario will not have effects on the potential growth by 2030, but show 0.10%p higher per capita GDP growth rate than that of baseline scenario result. By the high female labor participation policy, the per capita GDP growth rate will reach 0.04%p higher per capita GDP growth rate than that of baseline scenario. Based on the results of this paper, we conclude that the quantitative labor input cannot solely account for the trend decline of potential GDP, and the qualitative aspect, like labor productivity, is much more important element to sustain and boots the economic growth.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Health Policy and Administration Conference
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• 2004.05a
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• pp.3-11
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• 2004

Ⅰ. 국가실천전략을 위한 정책추진배경 및 방향·방향 1. 삶의 질 개선과 국가경쟁력 제고·새로운 산업, 고용정책 추진, 사회안전망의 내실화를 통한 삶의 질 개선 ■ 인적자원의 확충과 효율적 관리를 통한 성장동력 확보, 국가경쟁력 제고 □ 방향 2. 장기적·종합적 정책 수립 ■ 중장기적 관점에서 큰 틀의 방향 설정 ■ 이에 맞춰 단기대잭 조율 □ 방향 3. 국민의 참여와 범정부적 정책추진 ■ 인구, 경제, 고용, 교육, 여성, 보육, 보건, 복지, 여가, 문화 등의 여러 분야에서의 국민참여를 통한 국민을 위한 정책 개발 ■ 범정부적 정책으로 유도정부의 정책방향과 미래사회 준비에 합치되는 범정부적 정책으로 유도 (중략)

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.42 no.4
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• pp.1-29
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• 2019

This study estimates how changes in the female (aged 25 to 54) labor force participation rate (LFPR) following the historical experiences of the US and Japan would alter the future trend of the female economically active population by 2065, compared to the case in which the LFPR as of 2018 will remain unchanged. According to the results, the female labor force aged 25 to 54 will increase by 14% (about 797,000) and 15% (about 831,000), respectively, by 2042 if the female LFPR should change following the past trends of the US and Japan. In particular, the increase in the labor force is expected to be pronounced among females aged 30 to 44 who currently suffer high rates of job severance. The results of this study strengthen the prediction that the on-going population changes will not reduce much the overall economically active population in the near future. The result of a simulation based on the historical experiences of Japan suggests that, as least in the near future, policy efforts to encourage female labor supply will be more effective in alleviating the potential labor-market impacts of population changes, compared to policies aiming at increasing old-age employment.