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Long-term forecasting reference evapotranspiration using statistically predicted temperature information (통계적 기온예측정보를 활용한 기준증발산량 장기예측)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.1243-1254
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    • 2021
  • For water resources operation or agricultural water management, it is important to accurately predict evapotranspiration for a long-term future over a seasonal or monthly basis. In this study, reference evapotranspiration forecast (up to 12 months in advance) was performed using statistically predicted monthly temperatures and temperature-based Hamon method for the Han River basin. First, the daily maximum and minimum temperature data for 15 meterological stations in the basin were derived by spatial-temporal downscaling the monthly temperature forecasts. The results of goodness-of-fit test for the downscaled temperature data at each site showed that the percent bias (PBIAS) ranged from 1.3 to 6.9%, the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of the observations (RSR) ranged from 0.22 to 0.27, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranged from 0.93 to 0.95, and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) ranged from 0.97 to 0.98 for the monthly average daily maximum temperature. And for the monthly average daily minimum temperature, PBIAS was 7.8 to 44.7%, RSR was 0.21 to 0.25, NSE was 0.94 to 0.96, and r was 0.98 to 0.99. The difference by site was not large, and the downscaled results were similar to the observations. In the results of comparing the forecasted reference evapotranspiration calculated using the downscaled data with the observed values for the entire region, PBIAS was 2.2 to 5.4%, RSR was 0.21 to 0.28, NSE was 0.92 to 0.96, and r was 0.96 to 0.98, indicating a very high fit. Due to the characteristics of the statistical models and uncertainty in the downscaling process, the predicted reference evapotranspiration may slightly deviate from the observed value in some periods when temperatures completely different from the past are observed. However, considering that it is a forecast result for the future period, it will be sufficiently useful as information for the evaluation or operation of water resources in the future.

Analysis of Climate Change Researches Related to Water Resources in the Korean Peninsula (한반도 수자원분야 기후변화 연구동향 분석)

  • Lee, Jae-Kyoung;Kim, Young-Oh;Kang, Noel
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.71-88
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    • 2012
  • The global warming is probably the most significant issue of concern all over the world and according to the report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the average temperature and extent of global warming around the globe have been on the rise and so have the uncertainty for the future. Such effects of global warming have adverse effects on basic foundation of the mankind in numerous ways and water resource is no exception. The researches on water resources assessment for climate change are significant enough to be used as the preliminary data for researches in other fields. In this research, a total of 124 peer-reviewed publications and 57 reports on the subject of research on climate change related to water resources, that has been carried out so far in Korea has been reviewed. The research on climate change in Korea (inclusive of the peer-reviewed articles and reports) has mainly focused on the future projection and assessment. In the fields of hydrometeorology tendency and projection, the analysis has been carried out with focus on surface water, flood, etc. for hydrological variables and precipitation, temperature, etc. for meteorological variables. This can be attributed to the large, seasonal deviation in the amount of rainfall and the difficulty of water resources management, which is why, the analysis and research have been carried out with focus on those variables such as precipitation, temperature, surface water, flood, etc. which are directly related to water resources. The future projection of water resources in Korea may differ from region to region; however, variables such as precipitation, temperature, surface water, etc. have shown a tendency for increase; especially, it has been shown that whereas the number of casualties due to flood or drought decreases, property damage has been shown to increase. Despite the fact that the intensity of rainfall, temperature, and discharge amount are anticipated to rise, appropriate measures to address such vulnerabilities in water resources or management of drainage area of future water resources have not been implemented as yet. Moreover, it has been found that the research results on climate change that have been carried out by different bodies in Korea diverge significantly, which goes to show that many inherent uncertainties exist in the various stage of researches. Regarding the strategy in response to climate change, the voluntary response by an individual or a corporate entity has been found to be inadequate owing to the low level of awareness by the citizens and the weak social infrastructure for responding to climate change. Further, legal or systematic measures such as the governmental campaign on the awareness of climate change or the policy to offer incentives for voluntary reduction of greenhouse gas emissions have been found to be insufficient. Lastly, there has been no case of any research whatsoever on the anticipated effects on the economy brought about by climate change, however, there are a few cases of on-going researches. In order to establish the strategy to prepare for and respond to the anticipated lack of water resources resulting from climate change, there is no doubt that a standardized analysis on the effects on the economy should be carried out first and foremost.

Environmental Controls on Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange during a Rice Growing Season at a Rice-Barley Double Cropping Paddy Field in Gimje, Korea (김제 벼-보리 이모작 논에서 벼 재배기간 동안의 순생태계 CO2 교환량에 대한 환경요인 분석)

  • Shim, Kyo Moon;Min, Sung Hyun;Kim, Yong Seok;Jeong, Myung Pyo;Hwang, Hae;Kim, Seok Cheol;So, Kyu Ho
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.71-81
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    • 2014
  • Using the Eddy Covariance technique, we analyzed seasonal variation in net ecosystem $CO_2$ exchange (NEE) and investigated the effects of environmental factors and aboveground biomass of rice on the $CO_2$ fluxes in a rice-barley double cropping paddy field of Gimje, Korea. Quality control and gap-filling were conducted before this investigation of the effects. The results have been showed that NEE, gross primary production (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (Re) during the rice growing period were -215.6, 763.9, and $548.3g\;C\;m^{-2}$, respectively. Relation between NEE and net radiation (Rn) could be described by a quadratic equation, and about 65 % of variation in NEE was explained by changes in Rn. On the other hand, an exponential function relating Re to soil temperature accounted for approximately 43 % of variation in Re under the flooded condition of paddy field. Aboveground biomass showed significant linear relationships with NEE ($r^2=0.93$), GPP ($r^2=0.96$), and Re ($r^2=0.95$), respectively.

Streamflow response to climate change during the wet and dry seasons in South Korea under a CMIP5 climate model (CMIP5 기반 건기 및 우기 시 국내 하천유량의 변화전망 및 분석)

  • Ghafouri-Azar, Mona;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.spc
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    • pp.1091-1103
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    • 2018
  • Having knowledge regarding to which region is prone to drought or flood is a crucial issue in water resources planning and management. This could be more challenging when the occurrence of these hazards affected by climate change. In this study the future streamflow during the wet season (July to September) and dry season (October to March) for the twenty first century of South Korea was investigated. This study used the statistics of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature of one global climate model (i.e., INMCM4) with 2 RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios as inputs for The Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) model. The PRMS model was tested for the historical periods (1966-2016) and then the parameters of model were used to project the future changes of 5 large River basins in Korea for three future periods (2025s, 2055s, and 2085s) compared to the reference period (1976-2005). Then, the different responses in climate and streamflow projection during these two seasons (wet and dry) was investigated. The results showed that under INMCM4 scenario, the occurrence of drought in dry season is projected to be stronger in 2025s than 2055s from decreasing -7.23% (-7.06%) in 2025s to -3.81% (-0.71%) in 2055s for RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). Regarding to the far future (2085s), for RCP 4.5 is projected to increase streamflow in the northern part, and decrease streamflow in the southern part (-3.24%), however under RCP8.5 almost all basins are vulnerable to drought, especially in the southern part (-16.51%). Also, during the wet season both increasing (Almost in northern and western part) and decreasing (almost in the southern part) in streamflow relative to the reference period are projected for all periods and RCPs under INMCM4 scenario.

Classification and identification of organic aerosols in the atmosphere over Seoul using two dimensional gas chromatography-time of flight mass spectrometry (GC×GC/TOF-MS) data (GC×GC/TOF-MS를 이용한 서울 대기 중 유기 에어로졸의 분류 및 동정)

  • Jeon, So Hyeon;Lim, Hyung Bae;Choi, Na Rae;Lee, Ji Yi;Ahn, Yun Kyong;Kim, Yong Pyo
    • Particle and aerosol research
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.153-169
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    • 2018
  • To identify a variety of organic compounds in the ambient aerosols, the two-dimensional gas chromatography-time of flight mass spectrometry (GCxGC) system (2DGC) has been applied. While 2DGC provides more peaks, the amount of the generated data becomes huge. A two-step approach has been proposed to efficiently interpret the organic aerosol analysis data. The two-dimensional 2DGC data were divided into 6 chemical groups depending on their volatility and polarity. Using these classification standards, all the peaks were subject to both qualitative and quantitative analyses and then classified into 8 classes. The aerosol samples collected in Seoul in summer 2013 and winter 2014 were used as the test case. It was found that some chemical classes such as furanone showed seasonal variation in the high polarity-volatile organic compounds (HP-VOC) group. Also, for some chemical classes, qualitative and quantitative analyses showed different trends. Limitations of the proposed method are discussed.

Predicting Forest Gross Primary Production Using Machine Learning Algorithms (머신러닝 기법의 산림 총일차생산성 예측 모델 비교)

  • Lee, Bora;Jang, Keunchang;Kim, Eunsook;Kang, Minseok;Chun, Jung-Hwa;Lim, Jong-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.29-41
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    • 2019
  • Terrestrial Gross Primary Production (GPP) is the largest global carbon flux, and forest ecosystems are important because of the ability to store much more significant amounts of carbon than other terrestrial ecosystems. There have been several attempts to estimate GPP using mechanism-based models. However, mechanism-based models including biological, chemical, and physical processes are limited due to a lack of flexibility in predicting non-stationary ecological processes, which are caused by a local and global change. Instead mechanism-free methods are strongly recommended to estimate nonlinear dynamics that occur in nature like GPP. Therefore, we used the mechanism-free machine learning techniques to estimate the daily GPP. In this study, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN) were used and compared with the traditional multiple linear regression model (LM). MODIS products and meteorological parameters from eddy covariance data were employed to train the machine learning and LM models from 2006 to 2013. GPP prediction models were compared with daily GPP from eddy covariance measurement in a deciduous forest in South Korea in 2014 and 2015. Statistical analysis including correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean squared error (MSE) were used to evaluate the performance of models. In general, the models from machine-learning algorithms (R = 0.85 - 0.93, MSE = 1.00 - 2.05, p < 0.001) showed better performance than linear regression model (R = 0.82 - 0.92, MSE = 1.24 - 2.45, p < 0.001). These results provide insight into high predictability and the possibility of expansion through the use of the mechanism-free machine-learning models and remote sensing for predicting non-stationary ecological processes such as seasonal GPP.

Spatio-temporal Distribution of Macrozoobenthos in the Three Estuaries of South Korea (우리나라 3개 하구역 대형저서동물 군집 시공간 분포)

  • LIM, HYUN-SIG;LEE, JIN-YOUNG;LEE, JUNG-HO;SHIN, HYUN-CHUL;RYU, JONGSEONG
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.106-127
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    • 2019
  • This study aims to understand spatio-temporal variations of macrozoobenthos community in Han River (HRE), Geum River (GRE), and Nakdong River estuaries (NRE) of Korea, sampled by National Survey of Marine Ecosystem. The survey was seasonally performed at a total of 20 stations for three years (2015-2017). Sediment samples were taken three times with van Veen grab of $0.1m^2$) areal size and sieved through a 1 mm pore size mesh on site. A total of 1,008 species were identified with 602 species in HRE, 612 in GRE, and 619 in NRE, showing similar number of species between estuaries. Mean density was $1,357ind./m^2$, showing the high in NRE ($1,357ind./m^2$), mid in GRE ($1,357ind./m^2$), and low in HRE ($1,127ind./m^2$). Mean biomass was $116.8g/m^2$, showing similar variations to density ($174.2g/m^2$ in NRE, $129.0g/m^2$ in GRE, $49.0g/m^2$ in HRE). Polychaeta dominated in number of species and density in three estuaries. Biomass-dominated taxon was Mollusca in HRE and GRE, and Echinodermata in NRE. Polychaetous species dominated all three estuaries over 4% of density, such as Dispio oculata, Heteromastus filiformis and Aonides oxycephala in HRE, Heteromastus filiformis and Scoletoma longifolia in GRE, and Pseudopolydora sp. and Aphelochaeta sp. in NRE, showing various density between estuaries. Community structure was determined by various environmental variables among estuaries such as mean grain size and sorting (HRE), salinity and mean grain size (GRE), and salinity, dissolved oxygen, loss on ignition and mud content (NRE). Our study demonstrates the application of different measures to manage ecosystems in three estuaries. HRE needs to alleviate sedimentary stressors such as sand mining, land-filling, dike construction. Management of GRE should be focused on fresh water control and sedimentary stressors. In NRE, monitoring of dominant benthos and process study on hypoxia occurrence in inner Masan Bay are necessary.

Development of High-frequency Data-based Inflow Water Temperature Prediction Model and Prediction of Changesin Stratification Strength of Daecheong Reservoir Due to Climate Change (고빈도 자료기반 유입 수온 예측모델 개발 및 기후변화에 따른 대청호 성층강도 변화 예측)

  • Han, Jongsu;Kim, Sungjin;Kim, Dongmin;Lee, Sawoo;Hwang, Sangchul;Kim, Jiwon;Chung, Sewoong
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.30 no.5
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    • pp.271-296
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    • 2021
  • Since the thermal stratification in a reservoir inhibits the vertical mixing of the upper and lower layers and causes the formation of a hypoxia layer and the enhancement of nutrients release from the sediment, changes in the stratification structure of the reservoir according to future climate change are very important in terms of water quality and aquatic ecology management. This study was aimed to develop a data-driven inflow water temperature prediction model for Daecheong Reservoir (DR), and to predict future inflow water temperature and the stratification structure of DR considering future climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). The random forest (RF)regression model (NSE 0.97, RMSE 1.86℃, MAPE 9.45%) developed to predict the inflow temperature of DR adequately reproduced the statistics and variability of the observed water temperature. Future meteorological data for each RCP scenario predicted by the regional climate model (HadGEM3-RA) was input into RF model to predict the inflow water temperature, and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (AEM3D) was used to predict the change in the future (2018~2037, 2038~2057, 2058~2077, 2078~2097) stratification structure of DR due to climate change. As a result, the rates of increase in air temperature and inflow water temperature was 0.14~0.48℃/10year and 0.21~0.41℃/10year,respectively. As a result of seasonal analysis, in all scenarios except spring and winter in the RCP 2.6, the increase in inflow water temperature was statistically significant, and the increase rate was higher as the carbon reduction effort was weaker. The increase rate of the surface water temperature of the reservoir was in the range of 0.04~0.38℃/10year, and the stratification period was gradually increased in all scenarios. In particular, when the RCP 8.5 scenario is applied, the number of stratification days is expected to increase by about 24 days. These results were consistent with the results of previous studies that climate change strengthens the stratification intensity of lakes and reservoirs and prolonged the stratification period, and suggested that prolonged water temperature stratification could cause changes in the aquatic ecosystem, such as spatial expansion of the low-oxygen layer, an increase in sediment nutrient release, and changed in the dominant species of algae in the water body.

Interpretation of Cultural Landscape at the Geumsidang(今是堂) sibigyung(12 Landscapes) in Miryang, Gyungnam (밀양 금시당(今是堂) 12경의 문화경관 해석)

  • Eom, Tae-Geon;Kim, Soo-Jin;Park, Jung-Lim;Kang, Han-Min;Sim, Woo-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2011
  • This study has been examined characteristics of Yeoju Lee family, rich group at Miryang in the middle of the Joseon Dynasty, around Geumsidang(今是堂) Lee Gwang-jin remains as a cultural landscape appeared in pictures, poetry, and a strange story. Geumsidang Lee Gwang-jin returned to his old home abandoned the middle government post after the death of Moonjeong queen in socially confused stage and tried to manage an annex to a Geumsidang located in Baekgok of Eungchun riverside, and Geumsidang he managed was affected by his teacher and uncle Wolyoun Lee Tae of a view of nature, filial behavior, and nature management etc. Also, 'Painting of 12 landscapes to Geumsidang' is landscape painting with the actual view not like the '8 landscapes of So-Sang' or '8 landscapes of Sa-Si' which is abstract landscape and Lee Gyeong-hong drew 12 landscapes of Geumsidang that includes Angbong(鶯峰: nightingale peak), Yongdu mountain(龍頭山), Mubong Buddhist temple(舞鳳寺), Maam mountain(馬巖山), Wolyeon-dae(月淵臺), Saindang village(舍人堂村), Youngnam-ru(嶺南樓), Miryang eubseong(密陽邑城), Eyeonso(梨淵沼: pear tree deep water), Yullim(栗林: chestnut tree forest), Miryang river(密陽江), Sammundong fields(沙門野), land and government office owned by Yeoju Lee family as landscape objects. 'Poems of 12 landscapes to Geumsidang' by Lee Yong-gu 11th sons of Lee Gwang-jin was written based on 'Painting of 12 landscapes to Geumsidang', and sang for time, season, and changes of the weather. All 12 poems are all a quatrain with seven Chinese characters in each line consisted of all 28 words, but does not match completely with shown elements in pictures because it is not a simple description of pictures but it is recreated by writer's personality. Therefore these painting shows not only th meaning of filial behavior but also village owned by Yeoju Lee family rich group in Miryang, and these poem recreated the pictures by changing as certain scenic spot with the object of enforcing territory of Yeoju Lee family.

Retrieval of Oceanic Skin Sea Surface Temperature using Infrared Sea Surface Temperature Autonomous Radiometer (ISAR) Radiance Measurements (적외선 라디오미터 관측 자료를 활용한 해양 피층 수온 산출)

  • Kim, Hee-Young;Park, Kyung-Ae
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.617-629
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    • 2020
  • Sea surface temperature (SST), which plays an important role in climate change and global environmental change, can be divided into skin sea surface temperature (SSST) observed by satellite infrared sensors and the bulk temperature of sea water (BSST) measured by instruments. As sea surface temperature products distributed by many overseas institutions represent temperatures at different depths, it is essential to understand the relationship between the SSST and the BSST. In this study, we constructed an observation system of infrared radiometer onboard a marine research vessel for the first time in Korea to measure the SSST. The calibration coefficients were prepared by performing the calibration procedure of the radiometer device in the laboratory prior to the shipborne observation. A series of processes were applied to calculate the temperature of the layer of radiance emitted from the sea surface as well as that from the sky. The differences in skin-bulk temperatures were investigated quantitatively and the characteristics of the vertical structure of temperatures in the upper ocean were understood through comparison with Himawari-8 geostationary satellite SSTs. Comparison of the skin-bulk temperature differences illustrated overall differences of about 0.76℃ at Jangmok port in the southern coast and the offshore region of the eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula from 21 April to May 6, 2020. In addition, the root-mean-square error of the skin-bulk temperature differences showed daily variation from 0.6℃ to 0.9℃, with the largest difference of 0.83-0.89℃ at 1-3 KST during the daytime and the smallest difference of 0.59℃ at 15 KST. The bias also revealed clear diurnal variation at a range of 0.47-0.75℃. The difference between the observed skin sea surface temperature and the satellite sea surface temperature showed a mean square error of approximately 0.74℃ and a bias of 0.37℃. The analysis of this study confirmed the difference in the skin-bulk temperatures according to the observation depth. This suggests that further ocean shipborne infrared radiometer observations should be carried out continuously in the offshore regions to understand diurnal variation as well as seasonal variations of the skin-bulk SSTs and their relations to potential causes.