• Title/Summary/Keyword: 계절추세

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Hierarchical Smoothing Technique by Empirical Mode Decomposition (경험적 모드분해법에 기초한 계층적 평활방법)

  • Kim Dong-Hoh;Oh Hee-Seok
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.319-330
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    • 2006
  • A signal in real world usually composes of multiple signals having different scales of frequencies. For example sun-spot data is fluctuated over 11 year and 85 year. Economic data is supposed to be compound of seasonal component, cyclic component and long-term trend. Decomposition of the signal is one of the main topics in time series analysis. However when the signal is subject to nonstationarity, traditional time series analysis such as spectral analysis is not suitable. Huang et. at(1998) proposed data-adaptive method called empirical mode decomposition (EMD) . Due to its robustness to nonstationarity, EMD has been applied to various fields. Huang et. at, however, have not considered denoising when data is contaminated by error. In this paper we propose efficient denoising method utilizing cross-validation.

Visual Analytics for Abnormal Event detection using Seasonal-Trend Decomposition and Serial-Correlation (Seasonal-Trend Decomposition과 시계열 상관관계 분석을 통한 비정상 이벤트 탐지 시각적 분석 시스템)

  • Yeon, Hanbyul;Jang, Yun
    • Journal of KIISE
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    • v.41 no.12
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    • pp.1066-1074
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    • 2014
  • In this paper, we present a visual analytics system that uses serial-correlation to detect an abnormal event in spatio-temporal data. Our approach extracts the topic-model from spatio-temporal tweets and then filters the abnormal event candidates using a seasonal-trend decomposition procedure based on Loess smoothing (STL). We re-extract the topic from the candidates, and then, we apply STL to the second candidate. Finally, we analyze the serial-correlation between the first candidates and the second candidate in order to detect abnormal events. We have used a visual analytic approach to detect the abnormal events, and therefore, the users can intuitively analyze abnormal event trends and cyclical patterns. For the case study, we have verified our visual analytics system by analyzing information related to two different events: the 'Gyeongju Mauna Resort collapse' and the 'Jindo-ferry sinking'.

A Study on the Characteristic and AOD Variation according to Aerosol Types Using AERONET Sunphotometer Data in Korea (AERONET 선포토미터 자료를 이용한 국내 에어로졸 유형별 특성과 광학적 두께 변화 연구)

  • Joo, Sohee;Dehkhoda, Naghmeh;Noh, Youngmin
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.36 no.2_1
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    • pp.93-101
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    • 2020
  • For the first time in Korea, aerosol type was separated as PD (Pure dust), DDM (Dust Dominant Mixed), PDM (Pollution Dominant Mixed), NA (Non-Absorbing), WA (Weakly Absorbing), MA (Moderately Absorbing), and SA (Strongly Absorbing) using depolarization ratio and single-scattering albedo based on AERONET sunphotometer data. Then, seasonal and annual occurrence frequency and AOD variation are analyzed. The proportion of pollution aerosols (NA, WA, MA, SA combined) was 58.9, 46.2, 59.5, and 67.1% at Anmyeon, Gosan, Gwangju, Seoul, respectively, with Seoul being the highest and the lowest at Gosan. Annual rate changestended to increase NA and decrease PD and DDM. The AOD by type showed the highest NA at all sites. In addition, the ratio of NA and AOD continued to increase.

Correlation between Paldang Reservoir Discharge and Causes of Algal Blooming (팔당호 방류량과 조류발생요인들의 상관성)

  • Yoo, Hosik;Lee, Byonghi;Rhee, Seung-Whee
    • Journal of the Korea Organic Resources Recycling Association
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.93-98
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    • 2013
  • Main causes of algal bloom was studied in Paldang reservoir. Statistical approach was tried using meteorological and water quality data. Algae alert system showed that more than ten days were counted in a year, once it happened in Paldang reservoir. Alert dates increased in recent 5 years. Correlation coefficients between chlorophyll-a and other indexes did not showed strong relations resulting in coefficients less than 0.4. Among them, sunshine duration, BOD, and flow rate were appeared relatively main causes of algal blooming. Sunshine duration and BOD showed positive relation while flow rate did negative one, which is resonable for photosynthetic microorganisms. Water temperature and total phosphorus, which were presumed probable main causes before study, resulted in low correlation coefficients. Correlation coefficients between discharge flow and rainfall, water temperature showed positive relation due to seasonal effect.

기후변화의 위험헷지와 기온파생상품

  • Son, Dong-Hui;Im, Hyeong-Jun;Jeon, Yong-Il
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.465-491
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    • 2012
  • Climate change, a result of increasing global warming, has been receiving more public attention due to its serious impact upon many industries. In this study we consider sustainable- (Green-) Growth and Green-Finance, and in particular temperature derivatives, as appropriately active responses to the world's significant climate change trends. We characterize the daily average temperatures in Seoul, South Korea with their seasonal properties and cycles of error terms. We form forecasting models and perform Monte Carlo simulations, and find that the risk-neutral values for CDD call-options and HDD put-options have risen since 1960s, which implies that the trend of temperature increase can be quantified in the financial markets. Contrary to the existing models, the Vasicek model with the explicit consideration of cycles in the error terms suggests that the significant option-values for the CDD call -options above certain exercise prices, implying that there is the possibility of explicit hedging against the considerable and stable increase in temperature.

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Case study: Selection of the weather variables influencing the number of pneumonia patients in Daegu Fatima Hospital (사례연구: 대구 파티마 병원 폐렴 입원 환자 수에 영향을 미치는 날씨 변수 선택)

  • Choi, Sohyun;Lee, Hag Lae;Park, Chungun;Lee, Kyeong Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.131-142
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    • 2017
  • The number of hospital admissions for pneumonia tends to increase annually and even more, pneumonia, the fifth leading causes of death among elder adults, is one of top diseases in terms of hospitalization rate. Although mainly bacteria and viruses cause pneumonia, the weather is also related to the occurrence of pneumonia. The candidate weather variables are humidity, amount of sunshine, diurnal temperature range, daily mean temperatures and density of particles. Due to the delayed occurrence of pneumonia, lagged weather variables are also considered. Additionally, year effects, holiday effects and seasonal effects are considered. We select the related variables that influence the occurrence of pneumonia using penalized generalized linear models.

A Study on the Construction of 3D Noisemap for Busan's Road Traffic Noise (부산시 도로교통소음의 3차원 소음지도제작에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hwa-Il;Han, Kyoung-Min
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.111-132
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    • 2007
  • The traffic noise of Busan, the second largest city in Korea, is polluting the area. Noise map is a map that shows data on an existing or predicted noise condition in terms of a noise indicator, breaches of a limit value, the number of dwellings exposed to certain values of a noise indicator in a certain area, or on cost-benefit ratios or other economic data on mitigation methods or scenarios with Geographic Information System. With noise map, the effect of traffic noise and the efficiency of city development plan are exactly estimated. So making systematic counteroffer is possible with it. This study is aimed to the construction of basis for noise map construction method for domestic use and the area focus is Busan.

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Temperature Effects on the Industrial Electricity Usage (산업별 전력수요의 기온효과 분석)

  • Kim, In-Moo;Lee, Yong-Ju;Lee, Sungro;Kim, Daeyong
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.141-178
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    • 2016
  • This paper, using AMR (Automatic Meter Reading) electricity data accurately measured in real time, analyses the characteristics and patterns of temperature effect on the industrial electricity usage. For this goal, the paper constructs and estimates a model which captures the properties of AMR time series including long-term trends, mid-term temperature effects, and short-term special day effects. Based on the estimated temperature response function and the temperature effect, we categorize the whole industry into two groups: one group with sharp temperature effect and the other with weak temperature effect. Furthermore, the industry group with sharp temperature effect is classified into a summer peak industry group and a winter peak industry group, based on the estimates of the temperature response function. These empirical results carry practical policy implications on the real time electricity demand management.

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of Electrical Conductivity in Coastal Aquifers (연안암반대수층의 해수침투경향성 파악을 위한 전기전도도 시계열 분석과 예측)

  • Ju, Jeong-Woung;Yeo, In Wook
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.267-276
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    • 2017
  • Seawater intrusion into coastal fractured rock aquifer, resulting in groundwater contamination, is of serious concern in coastal areas of Jeolla Namdo, Korea, which heavily depends on groundwater resources. Time series analysis and forecasting were carried out to analyze and predict EC which is a major indicator of seawater intrusion. Two time series models of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) were tested for suggesting appropriate time series model. Time series data of EC measured over one year showed a increasing trend with short periodic fluctuations, due to tidal effect and pumping, which indicated that EC time series data tended to be non-stationary. SARIMA model was found better fitted to observed EC than any other time series model. Time series analysis and modeling was found to be a useful tool to analyze EC at coastal fractured rock aquifer subject to seawater intrusion.

A Study on Korea Postal Addressing Standards (한국 우편주소 표기 표준에 관한 연구)

  • Wang, Seung-Jin;Chang, Tai-Woo;Kim, Ho-Yon;Nam, Yun-Seok
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.11D no.3
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    • pp.703-708
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    • 2004
  • Currently the amount of general letter mail in Korea is on an increasing trend; especially it shows the seasonality that is concentrated in the end of the month or the year. However, the situation is not treated appropriately Moreover. manpower insufficiency if the carriers causes the poor service and the heavy burden of work. Under the existing conditions, the various efforts such as development of the automatic sequence sorting system and construction of the address database are given in order to quicken mall process and lighten the carriers' burden But the inconsistent addressing and the various expressions of address drop the systems and the carriers off in efficiency. In this study, we present the Korean postal addressing standards to make it possible to improve the performance of address recognition and help postmen to sort the mail; particularly focusing on the substance. After analyzing the domestic system, the information structure and the problems of postal address, we propose four fundamentals and the standards including synonyms and acronyms. In addition, we suggest several considerations for mail format. We expect that this study could support the postal service in Korea as a basic standard.