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Dynamic forecasts of bankruptcy with Recurrent Neural Network model (RNN(Recurrent Neural Network)을 이용한 기업부도예측모형에서 회계정보의 동적 변화 연구)

  • Kwon, Hyukkun;Lee, Dongkyu;Shin, Minsoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.139-153
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    • 2017
  • Corporate bankruptcy can cause great losses not only to stakeholders but also to many related sectors in society. Through the economic crises, bankruptcy have increased and bankruptcy prediction models have become more and more important. Therefore, corporate bankruptcy has been regarded as one of the major topics of research in business management. Also, many studies in the industry are in progress and important. Previous studies attempted to utilize various methodologies to improve the bankruptcy prediction accuracy and to resolve the overfitting problem, such as Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model (GLM). These methods are based on statistics. Recently, researchers have used machine learning methodologies such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Furthermore, fuzzy theory and genetic algorithms were used. Because of this change, many of bankruptcy models are developed. Also, performance has been improved. In general, the company's financial and accounting information will change over time. Likewise, the market situation also changes, so there are many difficulties in predicting bankruptcy only with information at a certain point in time. However, even though traditional research has problems that don't take into account the time effect, dynamic model has not been studied much. When we ignore the time effect, we get the biased results. So the static model may not be suitable for predicting bankruptcy. Thus, using the dynamic model, there is a possibility that bankruptcy prediction model is improved. In this paper, we propose RNN (Recurrent Neural Network) which is one of the deep learning methodologies. The RNN learns time series data and the performance is known to be good. Prior to experiment, we selected non-financial firms listed on the KOSPI, KOSDAQ and KONEX markets from 2010 to 2016 for the estimation of the bankruptcy prediction model and the comparison of forecasting performance. In order to prevent a mistake of predicting bankruptcy by using the financial information already reflected in the deterioration of the financial condition of the company, the financial information was collected with a lag of two years, and the default period was defined from January to December of the year. Then we defined the bankruptcy. The bankruptcy we defined is the abolition of the listing due to sluggish earnings. We confirmed abolition of the list at KIND that is corporate stock information website. Then we selected variables at previous papers. The first set of variables are Z-score variables. These variables have become traditional variables in predicting bankruptcy. The second set of variables are dynamic variable set. Finally we selected 240 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the first variable set. Likewise, we selected 229 normal companies and 226 bankrupt companies at the second variable set. We created a model that reflects dynamic changes in time-series financial data and by comparing the suggested model with the analysis of existing bankruptcy predictive models, we found that the suggested model could help to improve the accuracy of bankruptcy predictions. We used financial data in KIS Value (Financial database) and selected Multivariate Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Generalized Linear Model called logistic regression (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model as benchmark. The result of the experiment proved that RNN's performance was better than comparative model. The accuracy of RNN was high in both sets of variables and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) value was also high. Also when we saw the hit-ratio table, the ratio of RNNs that predicted a poor company to be bankrupt was higher than that of other comparative models. However the limitation of this paper is that an overfitting problem occurs during RNN learning. But we expect to be able to solve the overfitting problem by selecting more learning data and appropriate variables. From these result, it is expected that this research will contribute to the development of a bankruptcy prediction by proposing a new dynamic model.

The Usefulness of Multidetector CT Arthrography in the Diagnosis of Shoulder Pathology -Comparison with MR Arthrography and Arthroscopic Findings in the Same Patient- (견관절 병변의 진단에서 다중 검출 전산화 단층촬영을 이용한 관절조영술의 유용성 - 동일 환자에서 시행한 자기공명 관절조영술 및 관절경 소견과의 비교 -)

  • Kim, Dong-Soo;Park, Kyoung-Jin;Kim, Yong-Min;Choi, Eui-Sung;Shon, Hyun-Chul;Cho, Byung-Ki;Park, Ji-Kang;Kim, Seok-Won
    • Clinics in Shoulder and Elbow
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.115-125
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    • 2009
  • Purpose: The purpose of the study is to evaluate the usefulness of CT arthrography (CTA) by conducting a comparative study of CTA and MR arthrography (MRA) with the arthroscopic findings in the same patients. Materials and methods: Forty nine patients who suffered from shoulder disease underwent MRA and CTA concurrently. The sensitivity and specificity of CTA was evaluated, as compared to MRA, in the case of four types of shoulder pathological lesions. The accuracy of CTA was evaluated by analyzing the arthroscopic findings of thirty four patients. Results: Compared to MRA, CTA showed a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 100% for diagnosing supraspinatus tendon (SST) full thickness tear, and CTA showed a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 97.5% for making the diagnosis of superior labrum anterior to posterior (SLAP) lesion. For diagnosing partial articular side supraspinatus avulsion (PASTA) lesion, some studies have shown the usefulness of CTA with a sensitivity of 71.4% and a specificity of 97.7%. However, for diagnosing SST bursal side partial tear, the sensitivity of CTA was as low as 10%. CTA has been shown to be relatively accurate when the diagnoses were verified with the arthroscopic findings; diagnosing SST full thickness tear and SLAP lesion with CTA has shown an accuracy of 100% and87.5% respectively, and CTA showed 71.4% diagnostic accuracy for PASTA lesion. Conclusion: CTA was a useful tool and it was equivalent to MRA for the assessment of SST full thickness tear, SLAP lesion and PASTA lesion, but not bursal side partial tear. Thus, it may be used preferably to diagnose shoulder pathology and for follow up as an inexpensive tool after operation.

Evaluation of Removal Efficiencies of Heavy Metals Using Brown Seaweed Biosorbent Under Different Biosorption Systems (폐미역을 이용한 생물흡착 시스템별 중금속 제거 효율 평가)

  • Choi, Ik-Won;Seo, Dong-Cheol;Kim, Sung-Un;Kang, Se-Won;Lee, Jun-Bae;Lim, Byung-Jin;Kang, Seok-Jin;Jeon, Weon-Tai;Heo, Jong-Soo;Cho, Ju-Sik
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.310-315
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    • 2011
  • BACKGROUND: Heavy-metal pollution represents an important environmental problem due to the toxic effects of metals, and their accumulation throughout the food chain leads to serious ecological and health problems. METHODS AND RESULTS: Optimum conditions in continuous-flow stirred tank reactor (CSTR) and packedbed column contactor (PBCC) using brown seaweed biosorbent were investigated. Under optimum conditions from both lab-scale biosorbent systems, removal efficiency of copper (Cu) in a large-scale PBCC system was investigated. Removal capacity of Cu using brown seaweed biosorbent in a lab-scale CSTR system was higher than that in a lab-scale PBCC system. On the other hand, over 48 L/day of flow rate in Cu solution, removal efficiency of Cu in a lab-scale PBCC system was higher than that in a lab-scale CSTR system. Optimum flow rate of Cu was 24 L/day, optimum Cu solution concentration was 100 mg/L. Removal capacity of Cu at different stages was higher in the order of double column biosorption system > single column biosorption system. Under different heavy metals, removal capacities of heavy metal were higher in the order of Pb > Cr > Ni > Mn ${\geq}$ Cu ${\geq}$ Cd ${\fallingdotseq}$ Zn ${\geq}$ Co. Removal capacity of Cu was 138 L in a large-scale PBCC system. Removal capacity of Cu a large-scale PBCC system was similar with in a lab-scale PBCC system. CONCLUSION(s): Therefore, PBCC system using brown seaweed biosorbent was suitable for treating heavy metal wastewater.

Pilot and Feasibility Study of a Management Program for Elementary School Students with Asthma (우리나라에서 학교 중심의 소아천식관리사업의 적용가능성과 발전 방향: 일부 학교의 시범사업 평가결과를 중심으로)

  • Seo, He-Jin;Lee, Weon-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of School Health
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2009
  • Purposes: The objective of this study was to develop a management program for Korean elementary school students suffering from asthma, which would be based on the Australian Asthma-Friendly Schools (AFS) program. Methods: On the basis of the AFS program, we designed a 6-month pilot project for asthmatic students in two elementary schools in a rural area and one elementary school in an urban area of Korea. The pilot project consisted of the following processes: identifying students with asthma in a school, educating school staffs and the parents of an asthmatic child, registering those with asthma, and installing emergency kits for asthma attacks in school health rooms. In order to evaluate these processes, group discussions were held between project team members and school staffs in each area. In addition, we conducted a postal survey of 144 households having an asthmatic child. Results: The screening process adopted in this program resulted in the early diagnosis in asthma; however, it needs to be evaluated economically due to expensive diagnostic test for asthma. For the school nurses, asthma lessons were evaluated as being very helpful for their tasks, while teachers tended to take less interest in the program with only 45% of all teachers attending these lessons. Almost all participating parents reported that such lessons would be beneficial for the care of their child, even though only 24.2% of the survey respondents (122 households) attended the lessons. Installing emergency kits in school health rooms was regarded as a key feature of this project. The introduction of a register card containing more specific health records of asthmatic students was considered necessary to replace the existing list of students with asthma. Conclusion: This study has merit in that a Korean asthma-friendly schools program was developed for the first time, despite the many obstacles to such programs becoming more common.

Effect of Soil Amendment Application on Yields and Effective Components of Chrysanthemum boreale M. (산국의 수량과 유효성분에 대한 토양개량제의 효과)

  • Lee, Kyung-Dong;Lee, Yong-Bok;Yang, Min-Suk;Kim, Pil-Joo
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2002
  • With increasing the concerns of health improving foods. the demands of C. boreale M., which is a perennial flower and has been historically used for a natural medicine, become higher, recently, However, wild C. boreale M. collected in a mountatinous area is limited and not enough to cover all demands. The cultivation system and fertilization strategy are required to produce much amount of C. boreale M. with a good quality. We investigated the effects of soil amendment application on plant growth and effective components of C. boreale M. to develop efficient cultivation system. C. boreale M. was cultivated in a pot scale, and lime, fly ash, poultry manure compost and swine manure compost as an amendment applied with rate of 2, 20, 150 and $150Mg\;ha^{-1}$, respectively. Here, chemical fertilizers were applied with the same level ($N-P_2O_5-K_2O=150-80-80kg\;ha^{-1}$) in all treatments. Flower yields of C. boreale M., edible part as a natural medicine, were increased to 37 and 27% by swine and poultry manure compost application, respectively. Poultry manure compost amending (NPK+PMC) increased 3.6 times of proline content and 58% of total amino acids in the flower part more than chemical fertilization (NPK). But the contents of amino acids did not increase with amending liming materials like lime and fly ash. Cumambrin A, which is a sesquiterpene compound and has the effect of blood-pressure reduction, increased to 34 and 19% by lime and fly ash applications, respectively. Cumambrin A was significantly correlated with calcium content in the flower part of C. boreale M. Conclusively, soil amendments like compost and liming materials might contribute to increase the yields and quality of C. boreale M.

Studies on the Determinations of Dissolved Oxygen in Beverages (음료중 산소분석법에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Tal-Soo;Lee, Young-Ja;Kwon, Yong-Kwan;Park, Jae-Seok;Hwang, Jung-Yun;Lee, Ju-Yeun;Song, Jee-Won;Chung, Bo-Yong;Lee, Chul-Won
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.361-364
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    • 2002
  • This study was performed to establish a simple and accurate method for the determination of oxygen that is a processing aid in various beverage. The quantitative determination of dissolved oxygen (DO) contents in 30 cases of samples were performed by traditional titration method and polarography. As a result of the study, the analysis of DO contents in fruit-extract beverages containing oxygen by titration method was time consuming and large sample volumes were needed. Besides, serious interferences with compounds such as hydroxylamine and nitric oxide were observed, leading to false response. Although the polarography is easily affected by $H_2S$, proteins, and various organic compounds, it is a simple and practical method that provides inexpensive and relatively rapid analysis. The polarography is best suited to the routine determination of DO in a large number of samples and it is expected that the polarography can directly be applied to the quality control of the beverages containing added oxygen. The analysis results of DO contents in various fruit-extract beverages with oxygen and without oxygen were as follows: 23.10 ppm to 32.60 ppm for various frutis extract beverages with oxygen, 0.70 pp to 2.54 ppm for mixed beverages without oxygen, 7.63 ppm to 8.28 ppm for drinking water.

A Study on the Effects of the Internal Competence of Small Business on Competitive Advantage and Startup Intention to Commercialize a Franchise: Focusing on the Moderating Effect of Franchise Suitability (소기업의 내부역량이 경쟁우위 및 프랜차이즈 사업화 의도에 미치는 영향: 프랜차이즈 적합성의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Soo Il;Kim, Hong Keun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.25-42
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of internal competence of small business on the competitive advantage and start-up intention. Through this, which key competence of small business can be proposed for market growth against of large companies that have a great capital power. Also, implications for development direction can be suggested. For this purpose, technology capability, financing capability, marketing capability, and product/service differentiation capability factors were set as independent variables, as well as competitive advantage as a mediating factor, and startup intention to be franchiser as a dependent variable. For the analysis, a structured questionnaires survey was conducted to 276 domestic small business in capital area. The main results are as follows. First, in relation to the internal competency and the competitive advantage of small businesses, it was found that technological capabilities, financing capabilities and product (service) differentiation have a positive effect on competitive advantage. Second, the relationship between the internal capacity of a small entity and startup intention to commercialize a franchiser business indicates that its financing capacity and marketing capabilities have a positive effect on startup intention to commercialize the business, and that competitive advantage has a significant effect on startup intention to commercialize the franchise. Third, competitive advantage was found to mediate the relationship between internal competency and startup intention. Finally, it was shown that the internal capacity of a small business has a regulating effect in relation to its financing capacity, marketing capabilities and startup intention to commercialize the franchise, and that it also had a regulating effect in relation to its relationship with its competitive advantage and franchise suitability. Based on the above results, if small business can take competitive advantage in the market, they also consider startup intention to commercialize a franchiser, in addition, it is expected that one suggestion can be made from an internal capacity perspective required more emphasis on operations and management as an alternative to expanding small businesses' business, including market access measures that can be linked to internal capacity factors of small businesses.

Delineation of a fault zone beneath a riverbed by an electrical resistivity survey using a floating streamer cable (스트리머 전기비저항 탐사에 의한 하저 단층 탐지)

  • Kwon Hyoung-Seok;Kim Jung-Ho;Ahn Hee-Yoon;Yoon Jin-Sung;Kim Ki-Seog;Jung Chi-Kwang;Lee Seung-Bok;Uchida Toshihiro
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.50-58
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    • 2005
  • Recently, the imaging of geological structures beneath water-covered areas has been in great demand because of numerous tunnel and bridge construction projects on river or lake sites. An electrical resistivity survey can be effective in such a situation because it provides a subsurface image of faults or weak zones beneath the water layer. Even though conventional resistivity surveys in water-covered areas, in which electrodes are installed on the water bottom, do give high-resolution subsurface images, much time and effort is required to install electrodes. Therefore, an easier and more convenient method is sought to find the strike direction of the main zones of weakness, especially for reconnaissance surveys. In this paper, we investigate the applicability of the streamer resistivity survey method, which uses electrodes in a streamer cable towed by ship or boat, for delineating a fault zone. We do this through numerical experiments with models of water-covered areas. We demonstrate that the fault zone can be imaged, not only by installing electrodes on the water bottom, but also by using floating electrodes, when the depth of water is less than twice the electrode spacing. In addition, we compare the signal-to-noise ratio and resolving power of four kinds of electrode arrays that can be adapted to the streamer resistivity method. Following this numerical study, we carried out both conventional and streamer resistivity surveys for the planned tunnel construction site located at the Han River in Seoul, Korea. To obtain high-resolution resistivity images we used the conventional method, and installed electrodes on the water bottom along the planned route of the tunnel beneath the river. Applying a two-dimensional inversion scheme to the measured data, we found three distinctive low-resistivity anomalies, which we interpreted as associated with fault zones. To determine the strike direction of these three fault zones, we used the quick and convenient streamer resistivity.

A study on drainage characteristics and load amount evaluation by crop type in a hydroponic cultivation facility of horticultural complex (수경재배 시설원예단지 작물 유형별 배액 특성 및 부하량 평가 연구)

  • Jin, Yujeong;Kang, Taegyoung;Lim, Ryugab;Kim, Hyunwoo;Kang, Donghyeon;Park, Minjung;Son, Jinkwan
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.352-363
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study was to evaluate the load of nutrients contained in the drainage discharged from the facility horticultural complex and to use them for re-use of fluids and design for introduction of water treatment plants. Representative hydroponic cultivation crops were selected as tomato, paprika, cucumber, and strawberry, and the total number of samples analyzed for water quality was 80. As a result of the analysis, since various fertilizer components such as N, P, K+, Na+, Mg2+, Ca2+, Si4+, HCO3-, Cl-, S2-, Fe, Mn, Cu, Zn, Mo and B are contained at very high concentrations in the drainage, the need for water treatment was confirmed. Through statistical analysis, it was analyzed that the drainage concentration of strawberries was lower than that of tomatoes, paprika, and cucumbers. In the case of tomatoes, these essential ion concentrations are the highest, so it was confirmed that they are subject to valuable resources in terms of reuse of fertilizers. The load of N and P of the drainage discharged from the facility horticultural complex 1m2 was analyzed. For N, the daily processing capacity of 4.0 kg of tomatoes, 3.3 kg of paprika, 3.0 kg of cucumbers, and 1.5 kg of strawberries was calculated based on 1 ha. It was suggested that the P concentration needs a scale and capacity that can handle 0.5 kg of tomatoes, 0.6 kg of paprika, 0.4 kg of cucumber, and 0.2 kg of strawberries per day. Through this study, the amount of nitrogen and phosphorus contained in the drainage discharged from the greenhouse of each crop was evaluated to analyze the economy. In addition, it was expected to be used as basic data that can be used to calculate the treatment capacity to be reflected when introducing water treatment facilities in facility horticultural complexes for sustainable agriculture.

The Effect of the Characteristics of Agri-Food Open Market on the Repurchase Intention: Focusing on the Moderating Effect of Innovation (농식품 오픈 마켓 특성이 재구매 의도에 미치는 영향: 혁신성의 조절효과를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Sangmi;Ha, Gyusu
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.153-165
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    • 2021
  • With the disappearance of boundaries between online and offline, the O2O(online to offline) platform service is rapidly growing. Unlike general products, freshness is an important decision-making factor for agri-food, and there are many limiting factors for growth as an open market among O2O platforms due to the characteristics of difficult refunds and exchanges compared to other items and new transaction methods. In order to overcome these obstacles, consumer innovation must be considered. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of O2O(online to offline) platform characteristics perception on agri-food repurchase intentions. And an empirical survey of the hypothesis is made that innovation will show a moderating effect between agri-food O2O platform characteristics and repurchase intention. And an empirical survey of the hypothesis is made that innovation will show a moderating effect between agri-food O2O platform characteristics and repurchase intention. For this purpose, Using a convenience sampling technique, an online survey was conducted through Google survey from April 1 to April 15, 2021. A total of final analysis data were collected from a total of 270 purchase experienced of agri-food O2O(online to offline) platform. The SPSS program was used for analysis, and multiple regression analysis was used for hypothesis verification. The results showed that Economic, Interaction, and Playfulness had a significant positive effect on agri-food repurchase intend. Also, Interactivity × innovation, playfulness × innovation were found to have a significant positive (+) effect on repurchase intention. The results of this study show that innovation reduces the burden on consumers for new systems and mobile transactions. The results of this study suggest that convenient interface design is important for activating O2O transactions of agri-food. In addition, education and support are needed to strengthen the IT competency of farmers. The results of this study will be able to contribute to the establishment of infrastructure for agri-food open market shopping malls. In future studies, the influence of the O2O platform type on the purchase intention should be studied continuously.