• Title/Summary/Keyword: 경과기간 모형

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Changes in Factors Affecting International Grain Prices (국제곡물가격에 영향을 미치는 요인의 변화)

  • Choi, Sunkyu;Jung, Heonyong
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.183-188
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    • 2019
  • This study analyzed the effects of short-term interest rates, exchange rates and international oil prices on international grain prices using the EGARCH-GED model. The yield before one month of the international grain prices itself was found to have a significant effect on international grain prices for most periods. During the entire analysis period, none of the economic variables appeared to have a significant effect on international grain prices, whereas during the exchange fall period, only oil prices were shown to have a significant effect on international grain prices. In addition, during the pre-crisis period, interest rates, exchange rates and oil prices did not all have a significant effect, but during the post-crisis period only oil prices had a significant effect on international grain prices. It turns out that the factors affecting international grain prices are changing with the passage of time.

Huff 강우분포의 손실률과 유출수문곡선 분석

  • Kim, Kyo-Sik;Park, Ki-Bum;Park, Jong-Kwon;Cha, Sang-Hwa
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.680-683
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    • 2008
  • 최근의 사전재해영향성 평가 등에서 많이 사용되고 있는 Huff 강우분포는 실제 호우사상의 적용성 보다는 최빈분위의 적용에 따라 특히나 재해 관련하여서는 홍수량이 크게 산정된다는 이유로 인하여 Huff 4분위를 채택하고 있다. 시간분포는 설계홍수량 수문곡선의 모양과 첨두홍수량에 많은 영향을 미치므로 신중하게 적용하여야 한다. 원칙적으로는 해당 지역의 과거 강우자료로부터 강우지속기간 동안에 총강우량이 시간이 경과함에 따라 어떻게 분포되었는지를 통계학적으로 분석하여 그 지역에 적합한 시간분포 모형을 작성하여 사용하여야 한다. 그러나 유출수문곡선에 영향을 미치는 점에 있어 분위별 강우 분포에 따른 손실율과 유출수문곡선과의 관계는 아직 연구가 부족하여 본 연구에서는 확률강우량의 시간분포 산정 방법 중 Huff분포를 이용하여 각 분위별로 유출수문곡선을 산정하였으며, 유효우량 손실과 유출수문곡선과의 관계를 비교 분석하였다. 강우의 손실율은 유출수문곡선의 상승부와 첨두전의 유출총량의 변화에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 분석하였다.

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대청댐 준공이후 수문방류기간중 강우 및 홍수특성 분석

  • Kang, Kwon Su
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.280-280
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    • 2021
  • 대청댐은 1980년에 준공하여 금년도 현재 40년이 경과한 댐이다. 40년간의 수문자료를 확보하고 있으나, 준공이후 94년까지는 홍수기 시간자료가 축적이 안 되어 분석이 불가한 상황이며, '95년부터 2020년까지는 홍수기 시간자료를 최대한 활용하여 홍수수문분석을 시행하였다. 홍수의 기초자료인 강우량을 발생원인(태풍, 장마, 집중호우, 전선형강우)별로 구분하였으며, 강우의 시간분포(증가, 감소, 증가감소, 균일, 감소증가, 증가계단, 감소계단, Huff1, Huff2, Huff3, Huff4)의 11가지로 모든 호우사상에 대하여 구분을 하였으며, 적용모형인 저류함수법의 주요 매개변수(K, P, Tl, F1, Rsa)는 최적화 기법(Golden Search)을 이용하여 산정하였다. 또한, 유입량과 방류량 관계에 의한 홍수조절율, 주요호우 사상의 이전 상황인 무강우일수, 선행 강우를 분석하여 유출율에 미치는 영향을 파악하고자 하였다.

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Projecting the Spatio-Temporal Change in Yield Potential of Kimchi Cabbage (Brassica campestris L. ssp. pekinensis) under Intentional Shift of Planting Date (정식일 이동에 따른 배추 잠재수량성의 시공간적 변화 전망)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.298-306
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    • 2016
  • Planting date shift is one of the means of adapting to climate change in Kimchi Cabbage growers in major production areas in Korea. This study suggests a method to estimate the potential yield of Kimchi Cabbage based on daily temperature accumulation during the growth period from planting to maturity which is determined by a plant phenology model tuned to Kimchi Cabbage. The phenology model converts any changes in the thermal condition caused by the planting date shift into the heat unit accumulation during the growth period, which can be calculated from daily temperatures. The physiological maturity is estimated by applying this model to a variable development rate function depending either on growth or heading stage. The cabbage yield prediction model (Ahn et al., 2014) calculates the potential yield of summer cabbage by accumulating daily heat units for the growth period. We combined these two models and applied to the 1km resolution climate scenario (2000-2100) based on RCP8.5 for South Korea. Potential yields in the current normal year (2001-2010) and the future normal year (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) were estimated for each grid cell with the planting dates of July 1, August 1, September 1, and October 1. Based on the results, we divided the whole South Korea into 810 watersheds, and devised a three - dimensional evaluation chart of the time - space - yield that enables the user to easily find the optimal planting date for a given watershed. This method is expected to be useful not only for exploring future new cultivation sites but also for developing cropping systems capable of adaptation to climate change without changing varieties in existing production areas.

The Effect of Storage Period of Piggery Slurry on Odorous Compound Concentration from Manure at the Pilot Scale (모형 슬러리 돈사 활용한 분뇨의 저장기간별 악취물질 농도 조사)

  • Lee, K.H.;Cho, S.B.;Park, K.H.;Yang, S.H.;Lee, J.Y.;Ohh, S.J.;Kim, I.H.;Choi, D.Y.;Yoo, Y.H.;Hwang, O.H.
    • Journal of Animal Environmental Science
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    • v.18 no.sup
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    • pp.29-34
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    • 2012
  • This study was conducted to investigate the effect of storage time of manure on the concentration of odorous compounds. Levels of odorous compounds were measured from manure incubated in $20^{\circ}C$ for 6 wk in pilot chamber whose structure is similar to slurry pit. Levels of short chain fatty acids were decreased (p<0.05) by 4,159, 1,925, 844, and 483 ppm as storage time increased as 0, 2, 4, and 6wk, respectively. Transfatty acid level was not changed for 2wk but decreased (p<0.05) afterwards (levels were 250, 248, 151, and 61 ppm at 0, 2, 4, 6wk, respectively). Levels of phenol compounds were decreased (p<0.05) by 68, 48, 26, and 9 as storage time increased as 0, 2, 4, 6wk, respectively. Phenol concentration was increased whereas p-cresol level was decreased as storage time increased showing ratios of phenol and p-cresol were 6:94, 34:66, 51:49, and 67:33 at 0, 2, 4, and 6wk, respectively. Concentration of indole compounds was not different for 2wk but increased (p<0.05) after 4wk. The ratios of indole and skatole were 71:29, 42:58, 28:72, and 36:64 at 0, 2, 4, and 6wk, respectively. Skatole concentration was increased as storage time increased. Therefore, our current results indicate that levels of volatile fatty acid and phenol compounds were deceased but indole compounds were increased as manure storage time was increased.

Temperature-dependent Development Model of Larvae of Mealworm beetle, Tenebrio molitor L. (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) (갈색거저리(Tenebrio molitor L.) 유충의 온도발육 모형)

  • Koo, Hui-Yeon;Kim, Seon-Gon;Oh, Hyung-Keun;Kim, Jung-Eun;Choi, Duck-Soo;Kim, Do-Ik;Kim, Iksoo
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.52 no.4
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    • pp.387-394
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    • 2013
  • The developmental times of mealworm beetle larvae, Tenebrio molitor were studied at six temperatures ranging from 15 to $30^{\circ}C$ with 60~70% RH, and a photoperiod of 14L:10D. Mortality of larval period was very low at 17 and $20^{\circ}C$ but did not die over $22^{\circ}C$. Developmental time of larva was decreased with increasing temperature. The total developmental time of T. molitor larvae was longest at $17^{\circ}C$ (244.3 days) and shortest at $30^{\circ}C$ (110.8 days). Egg and larvae were not developed at $15^{\circ}C$. The lower developmental threshold and effective accumulative temperatures for the total larval stages were $6.0^{\circ}C$ and 2564.1 degree-days, respectively. The relationship between developmental rate and temperature was fitted by a linear model and nonlinear model of Logan-6($r^2$=0.95). The distribution of completion of each development stage was well described by the 2-parameter Weibull function ($r^2$=0.8502~0.9390).

Study on the determinants of employment duration in the youth-intern project (중소기업 청년인턴 취업자의 재직기간 분석)

  • Park, Sungik;Ryu, Jangsoo;Kim, Jonghan;Cho, Jangsik
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.285-294
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    • 2016
  • In general, employment duration is influenced by the individual characteristics (level-1) as well as type of the occupational characteristics (level-2). That is, the data has hierarchical structure in the sense that individual employment duration is influenced by the individual-level variables (level-1) and the job-level (level-2) variables. In this paper, we study the determinants of the employment duration of youth-intern in the SMEs (small and medium enterprises) using Cox's mixed effect model. Major results at level-1 variables are as followings. First, the hazard rate of treatment group is lower than that of control group. Second, the hazard rate of woman is lower than that of man. Also, the hazard rate is lower, for the older and the workers working in the bigger company. Investigation of level-2 variables has shown that random effect for job-level is statistically significant.

A Study on the Cross Hedge Performance of KOSPI 200 Stock Index Futures (코스피 200 주가지수선물을 이용한 교차헤지 (cross-hedge))

  • Hong, Chung-Hyo;Moon, Gyu-Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.243-266
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    • 2006
  • This paper tests cross hedging performance of the KOSPI 200 stock index futures to hedge the downside risk of the KOSPI, KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ50 spot market. For this purpose we introduce the minimum variance hedge model, bivariate GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) model as hedge models. The main results are as follows; First, we find that the direct hedge performance of KOSPI 200 index futures is better than those of indirect hedge performance. second, in case or cross hedge performance the hedge effect of KOSPI 200 stock index futures market against KOSPI 200 stock index spot market is relatively better than those of KOSPI 200 index futures against KOSPI and KOSDAQ spot position. Third, for the out-sample, hedging effectiveness of the risk-minimization with constant hedge ratios is higher than those of the time varying bivariate GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) model. In conclusion, investors are encouraged to use simple risk-minimization model rather than the time varying hedge models like GARCH and EGARCH model to hedge the position of the Korean stock index cash markets.

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Sensitivity analysis for the retailer's pricing and lot-sizing policies on the length of credit period (신용 거래 기간이 소매상의 가격 및 주문정책에 미치는 민감도분석)

  • Seong-Whan Shinn
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.257-262
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    • 2023
  • As part of their marketing policy, some suppliers allow retailers a period of credit in anticipation of increasing demand for the products they supply. The opportunity to defer payments on products through credit transactions has the effect of reducing retailers' inventory investment costs, and as a result, retailers determine selling prices in anticipation of increased demand from buyers. This study aims to analyze the inventory model that determines the retailer's selling price and EOQ(Economic Order Quantity) under the assumption that the buyer's demand is an exponentially decreasing function of the retailer's selling price in the credit transaction supply chain consisting of suppliers, retailers, and buyers. The products supplied for problem analysis include the case of deteriorating products that deteriorate over time, and the effect of the credit transaction period, the index of price elasticity and the degree of deterioration on the retailer's selling price and EOQ is analyzed.

An Inventory Model for Deteriorating Products with Ordering Cost inclusive of a Freight Cost under Trade Credit (신용거래 하에 운송비용이 포함된 주문 비용을 고려한 퇴화성 제품의 재고 모형)

  • Shinn, Seong-Whan
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.353-360
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    • 2019
  • Trade credit is being used as a price discrimination strategy by the suppliers in order to increase the customer's demand. From the viewpoint of the customer, if delayed payment is allowed for a certain period of time from the supplier, the effect of reducing the inventory carrying cost will positively affect the customer's order quantity. Also, in deriving the economic order quantity(EOQ) formula, it is tacitly assumed that the customer's ordering cost is a fixed cost. However in many business transactions, the customer pays the freight cost for the transportation of his order and so, the customer's ordering cost contains not only a fixed cost but also a freight cost which is a function of the order size. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed the inventory model which considers that the customer's ordering cost contains not only a fixed cost but also a freight cost which is a function of the customer's order size when the supplier permits a delay in payments. For the analysis, it is also assumed that inventory is exhausted not only by customer's demand but also by deterioration. Investigation of the properties of an optimal solution allows us to develop an algorithm whose validity is illustrated using an example problem.