• Title/Summary/Keyword: 결정론적 민감도

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A Study on Determining Economical Speed of Diesel Freight Locomotive (화물열차의 경제속도 결정에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kwang-Tae;Kim, Young-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.294-299
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    • 2012
  • Rail transport has been considered an environmental-friendly transport mode compared with other transport modes such as ship, truck, and aircraft. However, air pollutions emitted by diesel locomotives have emerged as social issues. In addition, the railway industry may not be able to avoid a duty of alleviating greenhouse gases emission owing to the Korean government policies for green growth which is an economic paradigm that simultaneously pursues growth and environmental improvement. Moreover, rising oil prices has burdened a train operating company. The purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology of determining an economical speed of diesel freight locomotive from the viewpoint of the train operating company. In the methodology, we first define an operational cost function based on various cost factors and then suggest formula to calculate an economical speed of diesel freight locomotive. To estimate the influence of cost factors such as diesel price, carbon taxes, and time costs on the speed of diesel freight locomotive, sensitivity analysis was conducted.

Application of EDA Techniques for Estimating Rainfall Quantiles (확률강우량 산정을 위한 EDA 기법의 적용)

  • Park, Hyunkeun;Oh, Sejeong;Yoo, Chulsang
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.4B
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    • pp.319-328
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    • 2009
  • This study quantified the data by applying the EDA techniques considering the data structure, and the results were then used for the frequency analysis. Although traditional methods based on the method of moments provide very sensitive statistics to the extreme values, the EDA techniques have an advantage of providing very stable statistics with their small variation. For the application of the EDA techniques to the frequency analysis, it is necessary to normalization transform and inverse-transform to conserve the skewness of the raw data. That is, it is necessary to transform the raw data to make the data follow the normal distribution, to estimate the statistics by applying the EDA techniques, and then finally to inverse-transform the statistics of transformed data. These statistics decided are then applied for the frequency analysis with a given probability density function. This study analyzed the annual maxima one hour rainfall data at Seoul and Pohang stations. As a result, it was found that more stable rainfall quantiles, which were also less sensitive to extreme values, could be estimated by applying the EDA techniques. This methodology may be effectively used for the frequency analysis of rainfall at stations with especially high annual variations of rainfall due to climate change, etc.

Effects of Process Variables on the Microstructure and Gas Sensing Characteristics of Magnetron Sputtered $\textrm{SnO}_2$Thin Films (마그네트론 스퍼터링 증착 조건에 따른 $\textrm{SnO}_2$ 박막의 미세구조와 가스검지특성 변화)

  • Kim, Jong-Min;Moon, Jong-Ha;Lee, Byung-Teak
    • Korean Journal of Materials Research
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    • v.9 no.11
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    • pp.1083-1087
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    • 1999
  • Microstructures and the gas-sensing characteristics of the $\textrm{SnO}_2$ thin films were studied, which were deposited at various conditions (rf power, sample temperature, $\textrm{O}_2$/Ar ratio) by the rf magnetron sputtering. As a result, six typical microstructures were derived, such as amorphous(A), amorphous mixed with polycrystalline grains (A+P), polycrystalline with random crystalographic orientation (P), fine columnar (FC), coarse columnar (CC) and Zone T (T) with dense fiberous structure. Typically, A, A+ P, and P structures were formed when no $\textrm{O}_2$ was added to the sputter gas, whereas FC, CC, and T structures were obtained when $\textrm{O}_2$ was added. The A structure formed at low rf power and low temperature, the A+P at high rf power and low temperature, and the P at high rf power and high temperature. The FC structure was obtained at low rf power and low temperature. the CC at low rf power and high temperature, and the T at high rf power and low temperature. Results of the gas-sensing test of the sensor chips fabricated from the typical films indicated that the fine columnar microstructure shows the highest sensitivity both at $300^{\circ}C$ and $400^{\circ}C$. It was proposed that this is due to the high specific surface area of the micro-columns.

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Surrogate Model-Based Global Sensitivity Analysis of an I-Shape Curved Steel Girder Bridge under Seismic Loads (지진하중을 받는 I형 곡선거더 단경간 교량의 대리모델 기반 전역 민감도 분석)

  • Jun-Tai, Jeon;Hoyoung Son;Bu-Seog, Ju
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.976-983
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: The dynamic behavior of a bridge structure under seismic loading depends on many uncertainties, such as the nature of the seismic waves and the material and geometric properties. However, not all uncertainties have a significant impact on the dynamic behavior of a bridge structure. Since probabilistic seismic performance evaluation considering even low-impact uncertainties is computationally expensive, the uncertainties should be identified by considering their impact on the dynamic behavior of the bridge. Therefore, in this study, a global sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the main parameters affecting the dynamic behavior of bridges with I-curved girders. Method: Considering the uncertainty of the earthquake and the material and geometric uncertainty of the curved bridge, a finite element analysis was performed, and a surrogate model was developed based on the analysis results. The surrogate model was evaluated using performance metrics such as coefficient of determination, and finally, a global sensitivity analysis based on the surrogate model was performed. Result: The uncertainty factors that have the greatest influence on the stress response of the I-curved girder under seismic loading are the peak ground acceleration (PGA), the height of the bridge (h), and the yield stress of the steel (fy). The main effect sensitivity indices of PGA, h, and fy were found to be 0.7096, 0.0839, and 0.0352, respectively, and the total sensitivity indices were found to be 0.9459, 0.1297, and 0.0678, respectively. Conclusion: The stress response of the I-shaped curved girder is dominated by the uncertainty of the input motions and is strongly influenced by the interaction effect between each uncertainty factor. Therefore, additional sensitivity analysis of the uncertainty of the input motions, such as the number of input motions and the intensity measure(IM), and a global sensitivity analysis considering the structural uncertainty, such as the number and curvature of the curved girders, are required.

The Role of Camera-Based Coincidence Positron Emission Tomography in Nodal Staging of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (비소세포폐암의 림프절 병기 결정에서 Coincidence PET의 역할)

  • Lee, Sun-Min;Choi, Young-Hwa;Oh, Yoon-Jung;Cheong, Seong-Cheoll;Park, Kwang-Joo;Hwang, Sung-Chul;Lee, Yi-Hyeong;Park, Chan-H;Hahn, Myung-Ho
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.47 no.5
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    • pp.642-649
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    • 1999
  • Background: It is very important to determine an accurate staging of the non-small cell lung cancer(NSCLC) for an assessment of operability and it's prognosis. However, it is difficult to evaluate tumor involvement of mediastinal lymph nodes accurately utilizing noninvasive imaging modalities. PET is one of the sensitive and specific imaging modality. Unfortunately PET is limited use because of prohibitive cost involved with it's operation. Recently hybrid SPECT/PET(single photon emission computed tomography/positron emission tomography) camera based PET imaging was introduced with relatively low cost. We evaluated the usefulness of coincidence detection(CoDe) PET in the detection of metastasis to the mediastinal lymph nodes in patients with NSCLC. Methods: Twenty one patients with NSCLC were evaluated by CT or MRI and they were considered operable. CoDe PET was performed in all 21 patients prior to surgery. Tomographic slices of axial, coronal and sagittal planes were visually analysed. At surgery, mediastinal lymph nodes were removed and histological diagnosis was performed. CoDe PET findings were correlated with histological findings. Results: Twenty of 21 primary tumor masses were detected by the CoDe PET. Thirteen of 21 patients was correctly diagnosed mediastinal lymph node metastasis by the CoDe PET. Pathological N0 was 14 cases and the specificity of N0 of CoDe PET was 64.3%. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy of N1 node was 83.3%, 73.3%, 55.6%, 91.7%, and 76.2% respectively. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy of N2 node was 60.0%, 87.5%, 60.0%,87.5%, and 90.0% respectively. There were 3 false negative cases but the size of the 3 nodes were less than 1cm. The size of true positive nodes were 1.1cm, 1.0cm, 0.5cm respectively. There were 1 false positive among the 12 lymph nodes which were larger than 1cm. False positive cases consisted of 1 tuberculosis case, 1 pneumoconiosis case and 1 anthracosis case. Conclusion: CoDe PET has relatively high negative predictive value in the enlarged lymph node in staging of mediastinal nodes in patients with NSCLC. Therefore CoDe PET is useful in ruling out metastasis of enlarged N3 nodes. However, further study is needed including more number of patients in the future.

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Optimization of Tank Model Parameters Using Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm (I): Methodology and Model Formulation (다목적 유전자알고리즘을 이용한 Tank 모형 매개변수 최적화(I): 방법론과 모형구축)

  • Kim, Tae-Soon;Jung, Il-Won;Koo, Bo-Young;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.9
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    • pp.677-685
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this study is to evaluate the applicability of multi-objective genetic algorithm(MOGA) in order to calibrate the parameters of conceptual rainfall-runoff model, Tank model. NSGA-II, one of the most imitating MOGA implementations, is combined with Tank model and four multi-objective functions such as to minimize volume error, root mean square error (RMSE), high flow RMSE, and low flow RMSE are used. When NSGA-II is employed with more than three multi-objective functions, a number of Pareto-optimal solutions usually becomes too large. Therefore, selecting several preferred Pareto-optimal solutions is essential for stakeholder, and preference-ordering approach is used in this study for the sake of getting the best preferred Pareto-optimal solutions. Sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the effect of initial genetic parameters, which are generation number and Population size, to the performance of NSGA-II for searching the proper paramters for Tank model, and the result suggests that the generation number is 900 and the population size is 1000 for this study.

LCCA-embedded Monte Carlo Approach for Modeling Pay Adjustment at the State DOTs (도로공사에서 생애주기비용을 사용한 지급조정모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Choi Jae-ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.72-77
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    • 2002
  • The development of a Pay Adjustment (PA) procedure for implementing Performance-related Specifications (PRS) is known to be a difficult task faced by most State Highway Agencies (SHAs) due to the difficulty in such areas as selecting pay factor items, modeling the relationship between stochastic variability of pay factor items and pavement performance, and determining an overall lot pay adjustment. This led to the need for an effective way of developing a scientific pay adjustment procedure by incorporating Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) embedded Monte Carlo approach. In this work, we propose a prototype system to determine a PA specifically using the data in the pavement management information systems at Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WisDOT) as an exemplary to other SHAs. It is believed that the PRS methodology demonstrated in this study can be used in real projects by incorporating the more accurate and reliable performance prediction models and LCC model.

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Assessing the Utility of Rainfall Forecasts for Weekly Groundwater Level Forecast in Tampa Bay Region, Florida (주단위 지하수위 예측 모의를 위한 강우 예측 자료의 적용성 평가: 플로리다 템파 지역 사례를 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Syewoon;Asefa, Tirusew;Chang, Seungwoo
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.55 no.6
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2013
  • 미래 기후 정보를 이용한 수문 환경의 단기 미래 예측은 안정적 수자원 공급을 위한 필수적 과제이다. 미국 플로리다 주 중서부 템파지역에서는 주요 수자원 중 하나인 지하수의 효과적 활용을 위해 지하수위 인공신경망 모델 (GWANN)을 개발하여 피압 대수층과 비피압 대수층에 대한 주 단위 평균 지하수위를 월별로 예측하고 그 결과를 수자원 공급 의사 결정에 반영하고 있다. 본 논문은 템파지역에 대한 GWANN 모델을 이용한 지하수위 예측 시스템을 소개하고 모델의 기후 입력 자료의 민감도를 분석함으로써 양질의 기후 정보에 대한 현 시스템의 활용성을 검토하였다. 2006년과 2007년에 대한 연구 결과, 관측 자료를 최적 예측 시나리오 (the best forecast)로 가정하여 적용한 결과는 지하수위 관측 지점에 따라 큰 차이를 보였지만 일반적으로 현 시스템 (현 시점의 실시간 주 단위 평균 강우량을 향후 4주간 동일하게 적용함) 에 비해 예측 성능이 개선되는 것으로 나타났다. 더불어 강우 관측 자료의 백분위 (percentile forecast; 20분위, 50분위, 80분위)를 강우 예측 자료로 활용한 경우에도 현 시스템과 비교하여 일부 나은 결과를 보여주었다. 그러나 지하수위 예측 모델을 활용하지 않고 현 시점의 지하 수위가 지속된다고 가정하는 경우 (na$\ddot{i}$ve model) 향후 2주간의 예측 결과가 best forecast 경우에 비해 높은 정확도를 보이는 등, GWANN 모델의 단기 예측에 대한 양질의 강우 예측 정보의 활용성은 낮으며, 향후 3주 이상에 대한 예측 성능에 있어 best forecast결과가 na$\ddot{i}$ve model 결과에 비해 높은 정확도를 보이기 시작하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 GWANN 모델의 예측 성능은 적용 기간과 지역 및 지하대수층의 특성에 따라 큰 다양성을 가지는 단점을 보여 강우 예측 자료 활용에 앞서 모델 개선의 필요성이 있다고 판단된다. 본 연구는 단기수자원 공급 계획 수립을 위하여 사용되는 지역 모델링 시스템에 대한 기후 예측정보의 활용성 평가를 위한 방법론으로 고려될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Biosphere Modeling for Dose Assessment of HLW Repository: Development of ACBIO (고준위 방사성패기물 처분장 생태계 모델링을 위한 ACBIO개발)

  • Lee, Youn-Myoung;Hwang, Yong-Soo
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.73-100
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    • 2008
  • For the purpose of evaluating dose rate to individual due to long-term release of nuclides from the HLW repository, a biosphere assessment model and the implemented code, ACBIO, based on BIOMASS methodology have been developed by utilizing AMBER, a general compartment modeling tool. To show its practicability and usability as well as to see the sensitivity of compartment scheme or parametric variation to concentration and activity in compartments as well as annual flux between compartments at their peak values, some calculations are made and investigated: For each case when changing the structure of compartments and GBIs as well as varying selected input Kd values, all of which seem very important among others, dose rate per nuclide release rate is separately calculated and analyzed. From the maximum dose rates (Bq/y), flux-to-dose conversion factors (Sv/Bq) for each nuclide were derived, which are to be used for converting the nuclide release rate appearing from the geosphere through various GBIs to dose rate (Sv/y) for individual in critical group. It has been also observed that compartment scheme, identification of possible exposure group and GBIs could be all highly sensitive to the final consequences in biosphere modeling.

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Probabilistic evaluation of ecological drought in forest areas using satellite remote sensing data (인공위성 원격 감지 자료를 활용한 산림지역의 생태학적 가뭄 가능성에 대한 확률론적 평가)

  • Won, Jeongeun;Seo, Jiyu;Kang, Shin-Uk;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.9
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    • pp.705-718
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    • 2021
  • Climate change has a significant impact on vegetation growth and terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, the possibility of ecological drought was investigated using satellite remote sensing data. First, the Vegetation Health Index was estimated from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Land Surface Temperature provided by MODIS. Then, a joint probability model was constructed to estimate the possibility of vegetation-related drought in various precipitation/evaporation scenarios in forest areas around 60 major ASOS sites of the Meteorological Administration located throughout Korea. The results of this study show the risk pattern of drought related to forest vegetation under conditions of low atmospheric moisture supply or high atmospheric moisture demand. It also identifies the sensitivity of drought risks associated with forest vegetation under various meterological drought conditions. These findings provide insights for decision makers to assess drought risk and develop drought mitigation strategies related to forest vegetation in a warming era.