• Analyses & Alternatives
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.155-183
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• 2022

The purpose of this study is to econometrically analyze the negative impact of the May 18 Democratic Uprising on the Gwangju/Jeonnam regionional economy using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). The SCM SCM is a methodology similar to the difference-in-difference(DID) method of microeconometrics. It is applied to macroeconomic variables such as country, region, etc. to estimate the causal relationship between specific events and the dependent variable. In this study, as of 1980, local tax revenue data of metropolitan local governments were used as a proxy variable for the economy of the region, and the impact of the May 18 Democratic Uprising on the economy of Gwangju/Jeonnam region was analyzed through various socio-economic indicators. In this study, data were used to analyze from 1971 to 2000, and as a result of empirical analysis, local tax revenues in Gwangju/Jeonnam area were less collected than normal routes up to 17%. In addition, the significance of this analysis was confirmed through in-time placebo effect analysis and in-space placebo effect analysis, which are methods of analyzing the robustness of the control group synthesis method.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.141-154
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• 2018

In order to meet the ever-increasing demand for international air travel, several plans are underway to open new airports and expand existing provincial airports. However, existing air demand forecasts have been based on the total air demand in Korea or the air demand among major cities. There is not much forecast of regional air demand considering local characteristics. In this study, the outbound air travel demand in the southeastern region of Korea was analyzed and the fixed-effects model using panel data was proposed as an optimal model that can reflect the inherent characteristics of metropolitan areas which are difficult to observe in reality. The results of model validation show that panel data analysis effectively addresses the spurious regression and unobserved heterogeneity that are difficult to handle in a model using only a few macroeconomic indicators with time series characteristics. Various statistical validation and conformance tests suggest that the fixed-effects model proposed in this study is superior to other econometric models in predicting demand for international demand in the southeastern region.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.26 no.2B
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• pp.153-160
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• 2006

To recommend ecological flow for major tributaries in Han River basin, the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM) have been applied. In particular physical habitat simulation using PHABSIM have been selected for microhabitat variables and QUAL2E model have been used to implement macrohabitat simulation. Habitat Suitability Criteria (HSC) for different life stages in accordance with different hydraulic variables (depth and velocity) have been presented by the field surveying data. We review IFIM procedures and discuss limitations of habitat simulation with specific reference to Han River basin. The results of this research can be used as reference flow for estimation of instream flow in Han River.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2009.05a
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• pp.496-500
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• 2009

소하천은 하천 네트워크의 최상류에 넓게 소재하는 하천이다. 본 연구의 목적은 올바른 소하천 수생태계 관리방안을 도출하기 위하여 소하천의 건강성을 분석하고 현행 소하천 관리제도의 개선점을 모색하는 것이었다. 본 연구에서는 다음과 같은 분석방법을 이용하였다. 첫째, 2007년 한강수계 소하천 28개 지점에서의 부착조류($DAI_{PO}$, TDI), 저서성 대형무척추동물(KSI), 어류(IBI), 서식환경, 수변환경 등 6개 항목에 대한 수생태 건강성 조사결과를 토대로 공간적 분포와 수질현황을 조사하여 소하천에 대한 종합적인 건강성 평가를 실시하였다. 둘째, 분석대상지역을 각각 소하천 구간스케일(28개 지점)과 유역스케일(팔당호, 안성천 유역)로 선정, 하천차수도(1:25,000)를 활용하여 해당 구간과 유역의 소하천도를 작성하였다. 셋째, 작성된 소하천도 는ArcGIS(ver. 9.3)에서 30, 60, 90, 120, 150-m Buffering을 하였다. 다음으로 소하천 구간은 중분류(23개 항목, $2000{\sim}2006$ 또는 2007년) 토지피복도를, 팔당호 및 안성천 유역의 소하천은 대분류(8개 항목, $1975{\sim}2000$년) 토지피복도를 적용하여 분류항목별 면적변화비율을 산정하였다. 끝으로 소하천 정비에 대한 제도적 문제점을 분석하여 소하천 관리의 개선점을 연구하였다. 그 연구 결과, 첫째 연구대상 소하천(28개)의 건강성은 도심 소하천에서 가장 낮게 조사되었고, 일부 소하천은 비록 상류에 위치함에도 불구하고 부착조류의 유기물, 영양염류 평가가 낮게 평가되었다. 둘째, 소하천 구간 스케일의 수변토지피복변화 분석결과 소하천 수생태 건강성은 거시적으로 산림, 도시화, 밭 등의 피복변화에 민감한 것으로 나타났으며 도시화 피복변화의 영향은 수변 30m에서 60m보다 3배 정도 큰 것으로 나타났다. 유역 스케일 분석에서는 상대적으로 도시화가 많이 진행된 안성천 유역의 소하천이 팔당호 유역보다 낮은 건강성일 것으로 예측되었다. 결론적으로 적절한 소하천 수변관리는 지역 하천의 건강성을 온전히 회복시키고 개선 유지하기 위한 중요한 수단들 중에 하나이며 수변토지피복의 변화율은 (소)하천 건강성 또는 유역관리의 지표로 활용될 수가 있는 것으로 조사되었다. 이와 더불어 본 연구를 통해 소하천 복원 및 관리는 소하천 특성을 고려한 장기적인 계획과 관리대상의 우선순위를 바탕으로 점진적인 대안마련이 필요할 것으로 사료된다.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.367-377
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• 2011

This paper investigates the determination factors' variation of real estate price after sub-prime financial crisis, in korea, using a VAR model. The model includes land price, housing price, housing rent (Jensei) price, which time period is from 2000:1Q to 2011:2Q and uses interest rate, real GDP, consumer price index, KOSPI, the number of housing construction, the amount of land sales and practices to impulse response and variance decomposition analysis. Data cover two sub-periods and divided by 2008:3Q that occurred the sub-prime crisis; one is a period of 2000:1Q to 2008:3Q, the other is based a period of 2000:1Q to 2011:2Q. As a result, Comparing sub-prime crisis before and after, land price come out that the influence of real GDP is expanding, but current interest rate's variation is weaken due to the stagnation of current economic status and housing construction market. Housing price is few influenced to interest rate and real GDP, but it is influenced its own variation or Jensei price's variation. According to the Jensei price's rapidly increasing in nowadays, housing price might be increasing a rising possibility. Jensei price is also weaken the influence of all economic index, housing price, comparing before sub-prime financial crisis and it is influenced its own variation the same housing price. As you know, real estate price is weakened market basic value factors such as, interest rate, real GDP, because it is influenced exogenous economic factors such as population structural changes. Economic participators, economic officials, consumer, construction supplyers need to access an accurate observation about current real estate market and economic status.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.15 no.12
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• pp.7134-7147
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• 2014

This study examined one of the contemporary issues that may be interesting to academics and practitioners regarding the driving force of the growth rate for the firms belonging to the chaebols in the Korean capital markets. With respect to the empirical results obtained from two hypothesis tests, the first hypothesis was to identify any financial determinants on the growth rate by applying both dynamic panel data and static panel data models. The debt ratios relevant to the book- and market-value showed their positive relationships with the DV of GROWTH1, along with other significant IDVs such as one-period lagged DV of GROWTH_1, SIZE1 and FOS with statistical significance. Second, by employing conditional quantile regression (CQR) analysis, the control variables, such as ROA, SMARKET, time dummy variable of F2010 and F2011, and the industry dummies of IND3 and IND10, provided evidence of their significant influences on DV of GROWTH1.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.38 no.6
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• pp.701-708
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• 2014

This study is aimed to obtain the influence of port hinterlands on container cargo volumes of Incheon port using System Dynamics(SD). Also, macro economic index such as exchange rates(US dollar), balance of current account, capital balance, Japan trade, China trade, export unit value index, import unit value index, total turnover of Incheon port were used as the factors that influence container cargo volumes of Incheon port. Moreover micro index regarding port hinterlands' operating companies such as total sales, rental fee, number of employees were introduced in the simulation model. In order to measure accuracy of the simulation, this study implemented MAPE analysis. And after the implementation, the simulation was decided as a much more accurate model because MAPE value was calculated to be within 10%. This study respectively examined factors using the sensitivity analysis. As a result, in terms of the effects on cargo volume in Incheon Port, the factor named 'cargo volumes of port hinterlands' operating companies' is most significant. And increasing the rental fee of hinterland was resulted in decreasing the cargo volumes of Incheon port.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.10
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• pp.39-45
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• 2016

This study analyses the macroeconomic effects of the direct payment system (DPS) for environment-friendly agriculture in Korea. We utilized the applied general equilibrium model (AGE model) for the general agricultural sector as well as the environmentally-friendly agricultural sector. We considered several scenarios based on various direct payment amounts to measure and analyze economic impacts. Scenario 1 considers the current direct payment system. Scenario 2 examines an additional 5% increase from the direct payment amount in scenario 1. Scenario 3 reviews an increase of 10% in direct payment amount while Scenario 4 considers an additional increase of 15% compared with Scenario 1. Lastly, scenario 5 examines a 20% increase in direct payment amounts compared with scenario 1. In addition, the baseline considers conditions prior to the introduction of the direct payment system. The simulation analysis results show that capital formation, production volume, and labor productivity increased in the environment-friendly agricultural sector. In contrast, employment in the environment-friendly agricultural sector decreased. The price of environment-friendly agricultural products following the introduction of the DPS remain consistent with the price of environment-friendly agricultural product before introducing the DPS. This results from price elasticity of supply and demand are inelastic, and there is no change in the income of consumers during the analysis period. However, additional research is necessary for improvement of the model using complementary statistical data for the environmental-friendly agriculture sector.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.997-1021
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• 2010

This paper compares the two most widely used seasonal adjustment methods: the X-12-ARIMA and TRAMO-SEATS procedures. The basic features of these methods are discussed and compared in both their theoretical and empirical aspects. In doing so, the X-13A-S program is used to reevaluate their applicability to Korean macroeconomic data by considering possible structural breaks in the series. The finding is that both methods provide very reliable and stable estimates of seasonal factors and seasonally adjusted data. As for the empirical comparisons, TRAMO-SEATS appears to outperform X-12-ARIMA, although the results are somewhat mixed depending on the comparison criteria used and on the series under analysis. In particular, the performance of TRAMO-SEATS turns out to compare more favorably when seasonal adjustment is carried out to each sub-samples (by taking possible structural breaks into account) than when the whole sample period is used. The result suggests that as the model-based TRAMO-SEATS has a considerable theoretical appeal, some features of TRAMO-SEATS should further be incorporated into X-12-ARIMA until a standard and integrated procedure is reached by combining the theoretical coherence of TRAMO-SEATS and the empirical usefulness of X-12-ARIMA.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.54-95
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to analyze quantitatively and qualitatively the effects of the increase in online shopping and its effects on real-world commercial outlets. The empirical analysis of this study is based on the results of "Census on Establishments" and "Online Shopping Survey" that cover 15 years, from 2002 to 2016. According to the results of this study, the increase in the number of online transactions affects the decrease in the number of stores in the real-world retail sector. However, non-specialized large stores and chain convenience stores showed an increase in the number of stores. In addition, the number of F&B stores increased the most in line with the increase in online transactions. This is because the increase in online transactions and in internet users led to the use of more delivery applications and the introduction of popular places on blogs or through social media. Street-level rents for medium and large-sized locations increased. In other words, it is seen that the demand for differentiated real-world stores that provide a good user experience increases, even though online transactions also increase. These results suggest that real-world stores should provide good user experiences in their physical locations with a certain size and assortment of goods.