Journal of Navigation and Port Research (한국항해항만학회지)

Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research (한국항해항만학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

An Influence Analysis of Port Hinterlands on Container Cargo Volumes of Incheon Port Using System Dynamics

시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 인천항 배후단지가 인천항 컨테이너 물동량에 미치는 영향 분석

  • Kim, Young-Kuk (Graduate school of Logistics, Incheon University) ;
  • Jeon, Jun-Woo (Graduate school of Logistics, Incheon University) ;
  • Yeo, Gi-Tae (Graduate school of Logistics, Incheon University)
  • 김영국 (인천대학교 동북아물류대학원) ;
  • 전준우 (인천대학교 동북아물류대학원) ;
  • 여기태 (인천대학교 동북아물류대학원)
  • Received : 2014.10.31
  • Accepted : 2014.12.29
  • Published : 2014.12.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This study is aimed to obtain the influence of port hinterlands on container cargo volumes of Incheon port using System Dynamics(SD). Also, macro economic index such as exchange rates(US dollar), balance of current account, capital balance, Japan trade, China trade, export unit value index, import unit value index, total turnover of Incheon port were used as the factors that influence container cargo volumes of Incheon port. Moreover micro index regarding port hinterlands' operating companies such as total sales, rental fee, number of employees were introduced in the simulation model. In order to measure accuracy of the simulation, this study implemented MAPE analysis. And after the implementation, the simulation was decided as a much more accurate model because MAPE value was calculated to be within 10%. This study respectively examined factors using the sensitivity analysis. As a result, in terms of the effects on cargo volume in Incheon Port, the factor named 'cargo volumes of port hinterlands' operating companies' is most significant. And increasing the rental fee of hinterland was resulted in decreasing the cargo volumes of Incheon port.

본 연구는 시스템 다이내믹스법을 이용하여 인천항 배후단지가 인천항 컨테이너 물동량에 미치는 영향을 분석하는 것을 연구의 목적으로 하였다. 시뮬레이션을 위해 사용된 변수는 환율(달러), 경상수지, 자본수지, 일본 교역량, 중국 교역량, 수출 단가지수, 수입 단가지수, 인천항 교역액 등의 거시 경제지표이며, 추가로 인천 항만배후 단지가 인천항 물동량에 어떠한 영향을 주는지를 검증하기 위하여 현인천항만 배후단지 입주기업의 매출액, 컨테이너물동량, 임대료, 종업원 수를 이용하여 민감도 분석을 시행하였다. 예측된 결과값의 정확도를 측정하기 위해 절대평균오차비율(MAPE) 검증을 실시하였으며, 10% 이내의 결과값을 얻어 매우 정확한 예측으로 판정되었다. 민감도 분석결과, 항만 배후단지 입주기업의 물동량이 인천항 컨테이너 물동량 증가에 가장 많이 기여하는 것으로 나타났으며, 임대료가 높을수록 물동량이 줄어드는 것으로 분석되었다.

Keywords

References

  1. Ahn, W. C., Jung, T. W., and Lee, J. H.(2010), "An Task on Promoting Port Industry of a High Value-Added in Incheon Port", Korea.
  2. Choi, K. Y., Cho, W. W., and Kim, K. L.(2010), "Evaluation of Spatial Information Industry Using System Dynamics", Journal of Korean Society of Surveying Geodesy Photogrammetry and Cartography, Vol, 28, No. 5, pp. 515- 522.
  3. Chol, G. S., Kim, H. I., and Ahn, S. B.(2005), "A Practical Study on the Development Strategy and Effects of the Port-Hinterland in Korea", Journal of Korean Port Economic Association, Vol 21, No, 2, pp. 147-172.
  4. Ha, Y. S., Cho, H. S.(2009), "Inducement of Firms in Container Port Hinterland: A Case of Pohang-Youngil Port", Journal of The Korean Association of Shipping and Logistics, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 123-143.
  5. Jeung, H. J., Choi, H. B.(2011), "A Study of the Activation Plan for the Hinterland of Busan New Port", Journal of Korean Port Economic Association, Vol, 27, No, 3, pp. 289-309.
  6. Jung, H. J., and Yeo, G. T.(2011), "An Analysis on the Container Terminal Operation by Considering the Key Factors for Fluctuating Container Traffic Volume", Journal of Korean Port Economic Association, Vol. 27, No. 1, pp. 95-109.
  7. Kwak, S. M.(2005), "Study of system dynamics theory applied to military", Korea Research Institute for Strategic, pp. 2-368.
  8. Lee, H. Y., Jeon, J. W., and Yeo, G. T.(2014), "Forecasting and suggesting strategies for smooth marine seafarers' supply and demand using System Dynamics method" Journal of The Korean Association of Shipping and Logistics, Vol, 30, No. 3, pp. 759-783.
  9. Lee, S. W., YI, H. M., and Song, J. M.(2013), "A Study on Improving Competitiveness of Port Logistics Parks in South Korea", Journal of The Korean Association of Shipping and Logistics, Vol. 29, No, 79, pp. 803-825.
  10. Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (2009), Report of port cargo volume forecasting by item / Calculation of TOC terminal stevedoring capability by ship type.
  11. Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (2012), A study on port hinterland development master plan and assignment.
  12. Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries.(2004), Port volume forecasting in the whole country.
  13. Oh, Y. M., Jung, K. H.(2009), " Relation between High Level Radioactive Waste Repository Site and Policy Acceptance of Local Residents", Korean System Dynamics Research, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 29-52.
  14. Oh, Y. M.,, Jung, C. H.(2008), "A Long Term Effect Prediction of Radioactive Waste Repository Facility in Gyeongju", Korean System Dynamics Research, Vol. 9, No. 2, pp. 105-128.
  15. Park, H. M.(2011), "The Efficiency of the Port Hinterlands of Gwangyang and Busan", Journal of Korean Port Economic Association, Vol. 27, No. 1, pp. 13-30.
  16. Park, S. L., Jung, H. J., and Yeo, G. T.(2012), "Forecasting the Grain Volumes in Incheon Port Using System Dynamics", Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research, Vol. 36, No. 6, pp. 521-526. https://doi.org/10.5394/KINPR.2012.36.6.521
  17. Park, Y. M., Won, D. G., and Choi, S. M.(2008), "Modeling the Dynamics of Wildbird"s Avian Influenza Using the System Dynamics". Journal of The Korea Contents Association Vol. 7, No. 1, pp. 1130-1135.
  18. Lewis, C. D.(1982), Industrial and Business Forecasting Methods: A practical guide to exponential smoothing and curve fitting, Butterworth Scientific.
  19. Sterman, J. D.(2000), Business Dynamics, Boston: Irwin Mcgraw-Hill.
  20. Forrester, J.W.(1969), Urban Dynamics, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
  21. Forrester, J. W.(1961), Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Cited by

  1. A Study on the Factors Influencing Cargo Volume of Small & Medium Container Port in Korea vol.39, pp.4, 2015, https://doi.org/10.5394/KINPR.2015.39.4.371