• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
• /
• 2003.11a
• /
• pp.177-182
• /
• 2003

많은 경제 시계열 자료 중에서 주가는 국내외 경제상황은 물론 정부정책 등 시장 외적인 영향에 가장 민감하게 반응한다. 하지만, 지금까지의 주가예측에 있어서는 이러한 외부의 영향, 즉 개입(Intervention)이 발생했을 때 주가의 변동에 능동적으로 대처하는 모형이 부재하였다. 실제로 이러한 개입사실을 예측모형에 반영하지 않는다면, 주가예측 있어 그 예측력을 따진다는 것은 무의미하다고 판단된다. 따라서, 개입시점을 발견하고, 이 개입효과를 측정하여 이를 모형에 반영한다면 좋은 예측결과를 얻을 수 있을 것이다. 이 연구에서는 이상점 탐지절차를 이용하여 개입 시점을 발견하고 개입의 효과가 개입시점에만 영향을 주는 모형과 효과가 일정기간 지속되는 모형으로 두 개의 개입시계열모형을 구축하고, 이러한 두 모형의 예측성과와 인공신경망모형을 이용한 예측성과를 비교하였다. 초단기예측(개입 직후 예측)에 있어서 개입의 효과가 지속되는 경우에는 개입시계열이 인공신경망보다 좋을 결과 를 나타내긴 했지만 그 차이는 크지 않았으며, 개입의 효과가 시점에만 영향을 준 경우에는 인공신경망의 결과가 더 우수한 것으로 나타났다. 단기예측(개입 후 20 일후의 예측)에 있어서는 개입 효과의 지속여부에 상관없이 인공신경망이 개입시계열모형보다 우수한 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국정보교육학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 2004.08a
• /
• pp.633-639
• /
• 2004

본 연구는 웹의 비동기적 상호작용의 하나인 게시판의 교육적 효과에 대해 연구하는데 있다. 전자게시판의 활용은 주로 학생 상호간의 의사소통 수단으로 활용되어 왔다. 본 논문은 교사의 개입이 없는 방임형 게시판과 교사가 직접 개입하는 교사 개입형 게시판의 의사소통 능력과 상호작용의 질적 수준을 학습효과라는 관점에서 분석한다. 내용 분석을 위한 적절한 도구를 고안하고 교사 개입의 방법과 수준 등에 대한 논의를 한다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
• /
• v.35 no.6
• /
• pp.469-480
• /
• 2017

On April 1, 2004, KTX (Korea Train eXpress), the first HSR (High-Speed Rail) in Korea, was introduced to Gyeongbu Line. The introduction of the KTX service led to a change in the number of passengers for Gyeongbu Line. Previous studies have analyzed the pre and post-event changes of the intervening events by either simple statistics or intervention ARIMA analysis. However, the intervention ARIMA model has a limitation that several assumptions such as the occurrence time and the type of intervention events are necessary. To this end, this study analyzed the effects of intervention event on the number of passengers using the Gyeongbu line based on a time series outlier detection technique which can overcome limitations in the previous studies. The time series outlier detection technique can analyze the time, effect type and size of an intervention event without the assumption of the time and effect type of the intervention event. The data were collected from the Korea Transport Database (KTDB) for twelve years from 2003 to 2014 (144 months). The analysis results showed that the size of the influence type in the same intervention events was different across the major city routes, and the intervention event which could not be found by previous study methods was also found.

• Science of Emotion and Sensibility
• /
• v.25 no.2
• /
• pp.101-110
• /
• 2022

Alcohol abuse negatively affects the individual alcoholics and their families, including children. This paper investigates interventions that help children of alcoholics psychosocially and psychopathologically. We investigated domestic and international literature by searching the related databases and reviewing articles. Inclusion criteria were studies on psychological interventions for children of alcoholics (CoAs) or both CoAs and parents. Results suggest that the interventions help CoAs reduce their emotional and behavioral problems. After the review, the research results were discussed, and suggested further effective interventions. The study is valuable because it reviewed the studies that improved CoAs' psychological problems and suggested future directions

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
• /
• v.15 no.1
• /
• pp.165-181
• /
• 1998

1987년 10월 미국의 주가폭락과 1990년대 일본주식시장의 지속적 침체 이후로 미국과 일본 등의 주식시장에서는 주식시장의 변동성 증대 및 침체의 원인으로서 주가지수선물이 주목받기 시작하였다. 1987년 주가대폭락을 연구한 브레디보고서에는 주가지수선물과 이를 이용한 포트폴리오보험전략이 주가폭락의 한 요인으로 지목되고 있으며, 일본의 경우 장기적인 주식시장 침체가 주가지수선물에 기인한다는 생각이 일반화되어 있다. 본 연구는 우리나라에서 1996년 5월 3일부터 시작된 주가지수선물거래 도입이 주식시장에 미치는 개입효과를 분석하는데 목적이 있다. 본 연구의 목적을 위하여 Box와 Tiao(1975)에 의해 제시된 개입분석모형(intervention analysis model)을 이용하여 분석한 결과 개입의 효과가 전체 모형 설정에 유의한 영향을 미치지 않음을 알 수 있었다. 따라서 우리나라의 경우 주가지수선물거래 도입이 주식시장에 미치는 개입효과는 미미하다고 할 수 있다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
• /
• 2018.05a
• /
• pp.471-472
• /
• 2018

본 연구의 목적은 대학무용전공자를 위한 진로개입 실태를 분석하고 이에 대한 발전방향을 제시하는 것이다. 이를 위하여 문헌 분석과 설문조사를 실시하였다. 대학무용전공자를 위한 진로개입은 외형적으로 확대된 모습을 보이고 있으나 체계적인 진로개입을 위한 접근 방안은 제시되지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 이를 토대로 대학 무용전공자를 위한 진로개입 발전 방안으로 무용직업군 직업표준체계, 진로흥미검사지, 진로교육 콘텐츠를 도출하였다.

• Korean Public Health Research
• /
• v.44 no.4
• /
• pp.1-13
• /
• 2018

Purpose : The purpose of this study was to explore the subjective experiences of problem drinkers participating in the early intervention program for moderate alcohol drinking. Methods : A qualitative descriptive study design was used. Data were collected through individual interviews with thirteen problem drinkers and analyzed using qualitative content analysis. Results : The experiences of the problem drinkers participating in the early intervention program were derived from four themes and nine sub-themes in terms of awareness, alcohol expectancies, perceived self-efficacy and behavioral change. They participated in programs offered in the workplace, and there were differences in motivation level among individuals, but generally accepted the necessity of the program. Participants who had trust with the program provider were more likely to change drinking behavior. Conclusion : Problem drinkers who participated in the early intervention program showed that it is a useful approach to change the problem drinking behavior by promoting awareness of alcohol-related knowledge, motivation for change through acquiring enough information and acquisition of self-efficacy as a behavior skill. These findings can be used as basic information for implementing and adapting early intervention for prevention of alcoholism in primary health care setting including workplace.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
• /
• v.53
• /
• pp.231-255
• /
• 2003

The purpose of this study was to determine the effectiveness of social work intervention for the family caregivers of the older persons with stroke. Twelve caregivers were assigned to either a treatment group or a control group. The treatment group intervention consisted of 8 weekly, 2-hour sessions which included education, peer and professional support, individual counselling. Wilcoxon test of the pretest and posttest scores of the two groups showed that those in the treatment program experienced significant decrease in caregiving burden and loneliness compared with caregivers who received no intervention. They also experienced increase in self-esteem, self-efficacy in dealing with caregiving tasks, satisfaction with a relationship with the care-receiver, emotional support. Most of these intervention effects were maintained in the 3-month follow-up measurement except loneliness and the caregiver-carereceiver relationship. Caregivers in the treatment group showed overall satisfaction with the program and willingness to continue to attend in the interventions. Based on these findings, implications for social work practice including self-help groups, psychotherapy for the caregivers, expanding social work intervention for the family caregivers of the older persons were discussed.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
• /
• v.24 no.5
• /
• pp.735-743
• /
• 2011

This study analyzes inbound and outbound Korea tourism data through an intervention model. For the analysis, we adopt three intervention factors: (1) IMF bailout crisis in December 1997, (2) Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome(SARS) outbreak in March 2003, and (3) Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in September 2008. The empirical results show that only the SARS factor lowered inbound tourism from April 2003 with a drastic decline in May 2003 and gradually decaying since then. However, all three factors significantly lowered tourism in the case of outbound tourism. Especially, the effect of the IMF is shown to be permanent from December 1997 and the effects of SARS and the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy abrupt and temporary with a gradual decay.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
• /
• v.16 no.6
• /
• pp.1-16
• /
• 2021

The purpose of this study is to examine how the Korean government has intervened in the venture capital market so far and empirically investigate whether the government's policies on venture capital have stimulated venture capital's early-stage investment. To this end, this study classified the government's market intervention in the venture capital market by stage by studying the related literature and applying and analyzing the case in Korea. And, this study empirically analyzed the effectiveness of the Korean government's policy to revitalize the early-stage investment of venture capital, which is the most important purpose of government intervention. For empirical analysis, yearly data from 2004 to 2018 provided by the Korea Venture Capital Association and Korea Fund of Funds were analyzed using time series statistical analysis and macrodynamics. As a result of the case study, the Korean government has intervened in the venture capital market through direct investment for 25 years, and has been intervening through indirect investment for the next 18 years. As a result of time-series statistical analysis, the government's fiscal investment to increase the formation of venture capital funds and the increase in the ratio of special-purpose funds that mandate a certain percentage of early-stage investment increased the early-stage investment of venture capital. However, macrodynamics showed a trend in the opposite direction from this time series statistical analysis from 2016. In conclusion, this study interprets the trend in the opposite direction to the time series statistical analysis results as the government's erroneous regulation on the venture capital investment method and the recent lack of effectiveness of direct intervention through the government's indirect investment method. In addition, based on the results of case studies and empirical studies, this study made six policy proposals necessary for indirect government intervention.