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http://dx.doi.org/10.7470/jkst.2017.35.6.469

A Study on the Outliers Detection in the Number of Railway Passengers for the Gyeongbu Line From Seoul to Major Cities Using a Time Series Outlier Detection Technique  

LEE, Jiseon (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology)
YOON, Yoonjin (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology)
Publication Information
Journal of Korean Society of Transportation / v.35, no.6, 2017 , pp. 469-480 More about this Journal
Abstract
On April 1, 2004, KTX (Korea Train eXpress), the first HSR (High-Speed Rail) in Korea, was introduced to Gyeongbu Line. The introduction of the KTX service led to a change in the number of passengers for Gyeongbu Line. Previous studies have analyzed the pre and post-event changes of the intervening events by either simple statistics or intervention ARIMA analysis. However, the intervention ARIMA model has a limitation that several assumptions such as the occurrence time and the type of intervention events are necessary. To this end, this study analyzed the effects of intervention event on the number of passengers using the Gyeongbu line based on a time series outlier detection technique which can overcome limitations in the previous studies. The time series outlier detection technique can analyze the time, effect type and size of an intervention event without the assumption of the time and effect type of the intervention event. The data were collected from the Korea Transport Database (KTDB) for twelve years from 2003 to 2014 (144 months). The analysis results showed that the size of the influence type in the same intervention events was different across the major city routes, and the intervention event which could not be found by previous study methods was also found.
Keywords
Gyeongbu Line; intervention analysis; Korea Train eXpress (KTX); outlier detection; time series;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
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