• Title/Summary/Keyword: 確率

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올바른 선택(選擇)의 확률(確率)에 대한 추정(推定)

  • Son, Jung-Gwon;Yun, Ju-Yeong;Kim, Heon-Ju
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.33-48
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    • 1994
  • 무차별 영역에서 올바른 선택을 할 확률을 베이지안 관점으로 추정하였으며 특히 모수의 사전분포를 주는 대신 P(CS) 자체의 사전분포를 정의하여 여러가지 추정량 제안하였다. 또한 제안된 추정량이 사전분포에 어떤 영향을 받는 지를 모의실험을 통해 알아보았다.

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A Stochastic Model for Air Pollutant Concentration (大氣汚染濃度에 관한 確率모델)

  • 김해경
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.127-136
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    • 1991
  • This paper is concerned with the development and application of a stochastic model for daily sulphur dioxide $(SO_2)$ concentrations in urban area (Seoul). For this, the characteristics of the regression trend, periodicity and dependence of the daily $SO_2$ concentration are investigated by a statistisical analysis of the daily average $SO_2$ values measured in Seoul area during 1989 $\sim$ 1990. Based on these, nonlinear regression time series model for the prediction of daily $SO_2$ concentrations is derived. A statistical procedure for using the model to predict the concentration level is also proposed.

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A Study on the Recursive Parameter Estimation Density Function Algorithm of the Probability (확률밀도합수의 축차모수추정방식에 관한 연구)

  • 한영렬;박진수
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.163-169
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    • 1984
  • We propose a new parameter estimation algorithm that converges with probability one and in mean square, if the mean is the function of parameter of the probability density function. This recursive algorithm is applicable also even though the parameters we estimate are multiparameter case. And the results are shown by the computer simulation.

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한국노동시장(韓國勞動市場)의 동태적(動態的) 구조분석(構造分析)

  • Jang, Hyeon-Jun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.27-42
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    • 1987
  • 본논문(本論文)에서는 우리나라의 노동시장(勞動市場)의 구조(構造)를 동학적(動學的)으로 살펴보고 이에 따른 정책과제(政策課題)를 도출(導出)하기 위해 취업(就業)과 실업상태(失業狀態)를 번갈아 움직이는 노동자(勞動者) 행태(行態)의 결정요인(決定要因)을 실증분석(實證分析)하였다. 분석방법(分析方法)으로는 직업탐색이론(職業探索理論)을 이용(利用)하여 이론적(理論的)인 가설(假說)을 도출(導出)하였고, 계량적(計量的) 검증(檢證)을 위해 회귀모형(回歸模型)을 정형화(定型化)하였다. 통계자료(統計資料)는 1985년(年) 한해 동안의 "경제활동인구조사(經濟活動人口調査)"의 매월(每月) "테이프"에서 같은 근로자(勤勞者)를 11개월(個月) 동안 추적하여 분석(分析)을 위한 표본(標本)으로 이용(利用)하였다. 임금(賃金)은 취업(就業)에서 실업(失業)으로 변화(變化)할 확률(確率)에 대해 부(負)의 효과(效果)를 보이고 실업(失業)에서 벗어나 재취업(再就業)할 확률(確率)에도 부(負)의 효과(效果)를 나타내어 이론(理論)에서 도출(導出)된 가설(假設)이 검증(檢證)되었다. 연령(年齡)이 상태간(狀態間) 이동(移動)에 미친 효과(效果)는 부(負)의 값을 보였다. 그러나 이 효과(效果)는 일정한 연령(年齡)이 지나면 정(正)의 효과(效果)로 바뀌는 비선형성(非線型性)을 보였다. 이러한 결과(結果)에 입각(立脚)하여 우리는 높은 임금(賃金)을 받는 근로자(勤勞者)일수록 이직(移職)의 가능성(可能性)이 낮고 또한 실업상태(失業狀態)에서 재취직(再就職)의 가능성(可能性)이 낮다는 사실(事實) 등을 알 수 있다. 이에 따른 정책적(政策的) 시사점(示唆點)의 하나는 직업훈련(職業訓鍊)을 단순히 양적(量的)으로 확대(擴大)하기보다는 연령체계(年齡體系)에 맞추어 그 내용을 질적(質的)으로 조정(調整)하는 것이 바람직하다는 것이다.

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Pobabilistic Design of Asphalt Pavement Surface Courae (아스팔트 鋪裝道路의 確率論的 表層設計)

  • Kim, Gwang-U;Yeon, Gyu-Seok
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.66-77
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    • 1992
  • A prototype probabilistic approach to thickness design for asphalt pavement surface course was developed using first-order second moment probability model. The tensile strain (load effect) developing at the bottom of surface layer due to the wheel load and the critical strain (resistance) of asphalt concrete were used as random variables for pavement reliability analysis. Based on the parameters for load effect and resistance data collected from reference and field, simulated data were generated by Monte Carlo method for reliability evaluation of the pavement for a typical rural highway. Thickness of pavement surface course was defined in terms of target reliability of the pavement, growth factor of traffic, design life of pavement and resistance of the asphalt concrete to be placed on the pavement. According to these rationales, prototype thickness design chrats were sugested through example studies. From these, similar design charts can be developed for many pavements if appropriate data and target reliability are determined.

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A Soft-Decision Decoding Algorithm for Linear Binary Block Codes (線形 2元 블럭 符號를 위한 軟判定 復號 알고리듬)

  • Shim, Yong-Geol;Lee, Choong-Woong
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 1990
  • A soft-decision decoding algorithm for linear binary block codes is proposed, for minimizing the block error probability. To compare the proposed algorithm with already established decoding methods, computer simulations are performed for the (7,4)Hamming code and the (23,12) Golay code. The average number of hard-decision decoding is always less then 2, and approaches to 1 when the signal to noise ratio is sufficiently large. These results show that the proposed algorithm reduces the decoding complexity.

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The Evaluation of Signal Reliability for single Stuck-at-type Fault in Digital Circuit (디지털회로의 단일고착형 결함에 대한 신호적 신뢰도계정)

  • 김영일;오영환
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.139-147
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    • 1987
  • This paper presented a method evaluating the signal reliability for signal stuck-at-type in digital circuits. Here, the signal reliability is defined as the probability that circuit output is correct, even though the fault existed at the internal parts of digital circuit. In evaluating the signal reliability, this paper presented not only fault model and algorithm for signal stuck-at-type fault but also computer program for evaluating the signal reliability with respect to complex and large circuit.

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On the Probability of the Estimate of Variance Components that is Negative in Unbalanced One-Way Random Model (불균형(不均衡) 일원(一元) 변량모형(變量模型)에서 추정방법(推定方法)에 따른 분산성분(分散成分)의 추정량(推定量)이 음(陰)이 될 확률(確率)의 계산(計算))

  • Song, Gyu-Moon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.4
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    • pp.121-130
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    • 1993
  • For the One-way random effects model with unbalanced data, the AOV and MINQUE estimates of variance components are frequently found to be negative. The primary objective of present study is placed on the computation of the probability of the main effect variance component, being negative. The probability of negative estimators from AOV and MINQUE can be obtained by theoretical computation under the normality assumption. It is, however, difficult to compute the probability of negative estimates for these estimators under arbitrary distributions, and hence their probabilities of being negative were computed by simulation experiment in this study. It was shown that there was no significant difference between the theoretical probability under normality and calculated probability by simulation experiment, and that probability of negative estimates decreases as sample size, number of levels and the value of increase.

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Scheduling Tasks for a Time Sharing Computer System with a Single Processor

  • 차동완
    • Communications of the Korean Institute of Information Scientists and Engineers
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.04-10
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    • 1987
  • We consider a time sharing computer system with a single processor where tasks ofK different types arrive at the system according to independent time homogeneous Poisson processes from outside. A task, after given a quantum for processing, leaves the system, or changes the type and rejoins the system according to specified probabilitycs. While many existing priority time sharing models determine the priorities of tasks strictly by their service time requirements, this paper develops a new scheduling rule wherein the importances or urgencies in addition to the service time requirements of tasks are counted, by inposing an appropriate reward structure on the system. Also presented is the algorithm through which to determine the rankings of K types according to this new scheduling rule.