Korea Trade Review (무역학회지)

Korea Trade Research Association (한국무역학회)
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The Impact of Global Value Chains on Inflation: Focus on South Korea and China

글로벌 가치사슬이 인플레이션에 미치는 영향 분석: 한국과 중국을 중심으로

  • Received : 2023.07.26
  • Accepted : 2023.08.24
  • Published : 2023.08.31
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Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of global value chain (GVC) participation on inflation in South Korea and China using OLS regression analysis. It compares the results before and after the global financial crisis. The findings are as follows: Firstly, the GVC participation of both South Korea and China negatively affects their inflation rates. When analyzing the GVC participation separately for forward and backward participation, it was observed that the forward participation of both countries negatively influences inflation. However, the backward participation of South Korea and China positively impacts inflation. Secondly, after the global financial crisis, there were differences in the analysis results for South Korea and China. The influence of GVC participation on inflation was not statistically significant for both countries. However, when analyzing the impact of forward and backward participation separately, China showed mostly insignificant effects on most inflation indicators. In contrast, South Korea's forward and backward participation seemed to have an expanding effect on inflation. This may be attributed to China's attempt to shift external demand to domestic demand and replace imported intermediate goods with domestic products, leading to a reduction in the impact of GVC participation. On the other hand, South Korea continued to show a relatively low decrease in GVC participation after the global financial crisis, indicating that the impact on inflation remains significant.

본 연구는 한국과 중국의 인플레이션에 대한 글로벌 가치사슬 참여도의 영향을 OLS 회귀분석으로 분석하고, 글로벌 금융위기 이후 한국과 중국을 비교하여 결과를 확인하였다. 연구 결과, 한국과 중국의 GVC 참여도는 인플레이션에 음(-)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 전방참여도와 후방참여도로 나누어 분석한 결과, 한국과 중국의 전방참여도는 인플레이션에 음(-)의 영향을 미치며, 후방참여도는 인플레이션에 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 다음으로 글로벌 금융위기 이후에는 한국과 중국의 결과가 다소 차이를 보였다. GVC 참여도가 인플레이션에 미치는 영향은 한국과 중국에서 모두 유의하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 전방 및 후방참여도로 나누어 분석한 결과, 중국은 대부분의 물가지표에서 유의한 효과가 나타나지 않는 반면, 한국은 전방 및 후방참여도의 영향이 오히려 확대되는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 중국의 경우 글로벌 금융위기 이후 대외 수요를 국내 수요로 전환하고자 하였으나, 수입 중간재를 국내 제품으로 대체하면서 GVC 참여도의 영향이 축소된 것으로 보인다. 반면 한국은 글로벌 금융위기 이후에도 크게 낮아지지 않은 GVC 참여도를 보이고 있기 때문에, 인플레이션에 대한 영향이 여전히 유의한 것으로 보인다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 2022학년도 충남대학교 4단계 BK21 대학원혁신사업 및 정석물류학술재단의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임

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