Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety (해양환경안전학회지)

The Korean Society of Marine Environment and safety (해양환경안전학회)
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A Study on the Risk Assessment by Obstacles in Ship's Passage

선박 통항로 내 장해물에 따른 위험도 평가에 관한 연구

  • 김니은 (한국해양대학교 일반대학원) ;
  • 박영수 (한국해양대학교 해사대학) ;
  • 박상원 (한국해양수산개발원) ;
  • 김소라 (한국해양대학교 일반대학원) ;
  • 이명기 (한국해양대학교)
  • Received : 2021.10.26
  • Accepted : 2022.04.27
  • Published : 2022.04.30
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Abstract

Recently, installation projects of structures such as offshore wind farms have been increasing, and the installation of such marine obstacles could affect ships that pass nearby. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to quantitatively evaluate the risk posed to passing ships due to obstacles in their passage. Hence, parameters that affected the risk were selected, and scenarios were set based on the parameters. The scenarios were evaluated through the ES model, which is a risk assessment model, and we confirmed that the risk ratio increased as the size of the obstacle increased, the safe distance from the obstacle increased, the speed of ship decreased, and the traffic volume increased. Additionally, we found that when the traffic flow direction was designated, the risk ratio was lower than that of general traffic flow. In this study, we proposed a generalization model based on the results of the performed scenarios, applied it to the Dadaepo offshore wind farm, and demonstrated that the estimation of the approximate risk ratio was possible through the generalization model. Finally, we judged that the generalization model proposed in this study could be used as a preliminary reference for the installation of marine obstacles.

최근 해상풍력발전단지 등의 구조물 설치를 추진하는 사업이 증가하고 있는 추세이며, 이러한 해상장해물의 설치는 인근 해역을 통항하는 선박에게 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 이에 본 연구는 통항로 내 장해물에 따라 통항하는 선박에게 주는 위험도를 정량적으로 평가하는 것이 목적이다. 이를 위해 위험도에 영향을 미치는 파라미터를 선정하고, 파라미터를 기반으로 시나리오를 설정하였다. 본 연구는 위험도 평가 모델인 ES 모델을 통해 시나리오 평가를 실시하였으며, 장해물의 크기가 커지고, 장해물과의 이격거리가 커지고, 통항 속력이 느리고, 통항량이 증가할수록 위험 비율이 높아짐을 확인하였다. 또한, 교통흐름 방향이 지정된 경우에 일반적인 교통흐름에 비해 낮은 위험 비율을 보임을 파악하였다. 본 연구는 수행된 시나리오 결과를 기반으로 일반화 모형을 제시하여 다대포 해상풍력발전단지에 적용하였으며, 일반화 모형을 통해 대략적인 위험 비율을 추정하는 것이 가능함을 나타냈다. 본 연구에서 제시된 일반화 모형은 해상장해물 설치에 있어 사전 참고자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 논문은 부산광역시 및 (재)부산인재평생교육진흥원의 BB21플러스 사업으로 지원된 연구입니다.

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