ND-K-S를 적용한 항로 통항분포와 통항패턴 분석에 관한 연구

A Study on the Analysis of Traffic Distribution and Traffic Pattern on Traffic Route using ND-K-S

Abstract

항로는 선박의 통항이 빈번하여 사고의 위험이 높은 지역이지만, 선박의 통항분포에만 초점을 맞춘 연구가 다수였으며, 항로의 특성과 선박의 크기별 통항패턴에 대한 연구는 부족하였다. 이에 본 연구에서는 3개의 주요 항로에서의 통항분포와 통항패턴을 분석하기 위해서 3일간의 선박의 통항현황을 조사하였다. 통항현황을 바탕으로 항로를 10개의 Gate line으로 구분하고 각 Gate line을 통과하는 선박크기를 소형선, 중형선, 대형선으로 세 분류하여 분석하였다. 각 항로의 통항분석을 바탕으로 각 Gate line에서의 통항분포에 대하여 ND-K-S(Normal Distribution-Kurtosis-Skewness)를 적용하여 평가하였다. ND 평가 결과 통항분포에서 대형선은 정규분포를, 중형선은 편도항로에서만 정규분포를 만족하고, 소형선은 정규분포를 만족하지 않는 것으로 평가되었다. K-S 평가 결과 통항패턴은 왕복항로와 편도항로에서 뚜렷한 구분을 보였다. K 평가의 결과 편도항로에서는 고루 항로를 이용하는 통항패턴을 가지지만, 왕복항로에서는 항로의 한 부분에 집중하는 통항패턴을 가지는 것으로 평가되고, S 평가의 결과 편도항로에서는 항로의 중앙을 따라 항행하는 통항패턴을 가지지만, 왕복항로에서는 항로의 우측에 치우치는 통항패턴을 가지는 것으로 평가되었다. 다만 본 연구는 3개의 주요 항로를 비교한 만큼 향후 다양한 환경에서의 항로분석이 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

A traffic route is an area associated with high risk for accidents due to the flow of heavy traffic. Despite this concern, most studies related to traffic focus solely on traffic distribution. Therefore, there is a need for studies investigating the characteristics of ships' routes and traffic patterns. In this study, an investigation was carried out to analyze the traffic distribution and pattern in 3 major traffic routes for 3 days. For the purpose of the study, based on the prevailing traffic conditions, the route was divided into 10 gate lines. The ships passing through the lines were also classified into either small, medium and large. ND-K-S (normal distribution, kurtosis, and skewness) test was carried out for the traffic distribution at each gate line based on the information analyzed on each traffic route. The analysis of the results obtained from the ND test showed that large vessels have normal distribution, medium sized vessels have satisfied normal distribution in one-way route only while small sized vessels do not have normal distribution. According to the result obtained from the K-S test, normal traffic pattern shows a significant difference between two-way route and one-way route. Results obtained from the K test result shows that in the case of one-way route, vessels have a traffic pattern using a wide range on traffic route. Further analysis shows that vessels concentrate on one side of route in case of two-way route. Results obtained from the S test show that, in case of one-way route, vessels have a normal traffic pattern according to center line. However, analysis pf the results shows that vessels are shifted to the right side of route in case of two-way route. Despite these findings, it should be noted that this study was carried out in only 3 ports, therefore there is need for investigation to be carried out in various routes and conditions in future studies.

Fig. 1 Kurtosis distribution

Fig. 2 Skewness distribution

Fig. 3 Traffic survey on Gadeok traffic route

Fig. 4 Gate lines for inward traffic route near Ongdo

Fig. 5 Large vessel traffic pattern on gate line between I and J for inward

Fig. 6 Result of K test of three traffic route

Fig. 7 Result of S test of three traffic route

Table 1 Details of traffic survey of three traffic route

Table 2 Traffic condition of Gadeok traffic route

Table 3 Traffic condition of Busan north port No.1 route

Table 4 Traffic condition of Ongdo traffic route

Table 5 P-value of ND test result of three traffic route

Table 6 Result of K and S test of three traffic route