Journal of the Korea Convergence Society (한국융합학회논문지)

Korea Convergence Society (한국융합학회)
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Analysis of Exchange Rates of major countries and Domestic Interest Rate Fluctuations Affecting Exports

수출에 영향을 미치는 주요국의 환율과 국내 금리 변동에 관한 분석

  • Received : 2017.08.18
  • Accepted : 2017.10.20
  • Published : 2017.10.28
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Abstract

In this study, we selected interest rates and won/dollar, won/yen, won/yuan to find out the indicators affecting domestic exports in the age of convergence. Correlation, regression analysis, indicator analysis and model analysis were performed for 210 months since January 2000. As a result, the correlation between exports and won/dollar, won/yuan, won/yen was negative(-). Therefore the directions were different from each other. In regression analysis, only interest rate and won/dollar were statistically significant for export. In the coefficient, interest rate calculated positive(+) and won/dollar was negative(-). It is interpreted that the won/dollar depreciation positively affects export growth. In this study if the won/dollar exchange rate falls, exports will increase. This is different from previous studies. Therefore, it is necessary to review the posterior relationship by time difference. Korea is highly dependent on exports. Therefore, the study on the indicators affecting exports to increase exports should continue.

본 연구에서는 융합 시대를 맞이하여 국내 수출에 영향을 미치는 지표들을 찾고자 금리와 원/달러, 원/엔, 원/위안화를 선정하였다. 지난 2000년 1월 이후 210개월 동안 상관관계와 회귀분석, 지표분석, 모형분석 등을 시도하였다. 분석결과 상관분석에서는 수출이 원/달러, 원/위안화, 원/엔 환율과 음(-)의 관계를 보여 서로 방향성이 다르게 나타났다. 회귀분석에서는 수출에 대해 금리와 원/달러만 통계적으로 유의하게 나타났다. Coefficient가 금리는 양(+)의 값으로, 원/달러는 음(-)의 값으로 산출되었다. 원/달러 하락이 수출 증가에 긍정적으로 작용하는 것으로 추정되었다. 본 연구에서 원/달러 환율이 하락하면 수출이 증가하는 것으로 나타나 기존 선행연구와 다르게 나타났다. 그래서 시간차에 의한 선후행 관계를 다시 살펴볼 필요성이 제기되었다. 우리나라는 수출에 대한 의존도가 높은 편이다. 따라서 수출 증가를 위해 수출에 영향을 미치는 지표들에 관한 연구가 지속되어야 할 것이다.

Keywords

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