Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems (한국지능시스템학회논문지)

Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems (한국지능시스템학회)
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Analysis of the outcome for the Korean Pro-Basketball games using Regression models

회귀모형을 이용한 한국프로농구 승부결과 분석

  • Received : 2015.03.22
  • Accepted : 2015.09.28
  • Published : 2015.10.25
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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyse outcomes of Korean Pro-basketball games using regression models. Both Classic Fuzzy Regression Model and Fuzzy Regression Model applying linguistic variables were used to meet the purpose of the paper. In General Regression Analysis, in which the results of games are expressed and analyzed through score differences, a regression model is proposed considering influential variables for the score differences of the two teams. In Fuzzy Regression Analysis, the results are sorted into six different literal expressions, 'win with large margin, win with moderate margin, win with narrow margin, defeat with narrow margin, defeat with moderate margin, and defeat with large margin'. Athletic performances and team work of each teams were expressed in fuzzy number to analyse how much athletic performances and team work affect results of games. This paper referred back to 2013-2014 season data provided by KBL(Korean Basketball League) and professional columns on Korean basketball analysis.

본 연구의 목적은 프로농구 경기의 승부 결과를 회귀모형을 이용하여 분석하는 것이다. 이를 위해 본 연구에서는 전통적인 회귀분석 방법과 문자적인 변수를 사용하는 퍼지회귀모형을 사용하였다. 승부의 결과를 두 팀 간의 점수차로 표현하여 분석한 일반회귀분석 방법에서는 두 팀의 점수차에 영향을 미치는 변수를 찾아 승부의 결과에 대한 회귀모형을 제시하였다. 그리고 두 팀의 승부 결과를 "대승, 승리, 신승, 석패, 패배 그리고 대패"와 같이 문자적으로 표현한 퍼지회귀모형에서는 각 팀의 경기력과 조직력을 퍼지수로 표현하여 각 팀의 경기력과 조직력이 승부의 결과에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 본 연구는 한국프로농구연맹(KBL, Korea Basketball League)에서 제공하는 2013~2014시즌의 자료와 프로농구의 결과를 분석하는 칼럼들을 이용하여 분석하였다.

Keywords

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