Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Drought Frequency Analysis Using Hidden Markov Chain Model and Bivariate Copula Function

Hidden Markov Chain 모형과 이변량 코플라함수를 이용한 가뭄빈도분석

  • Chun, Si-Young (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Wonkwang University) ;
  • Kim, Yong-Tak (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University) ;
  • Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
  • Received : 2015.09.08
  • Accepted : 2015.09.30
  • Published : 2015.12.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This study applied a probabilistic-based hidden Markov model (HMM) to better characterize drought patterns. In addition, a copula-based bivariate drought frequency analysis was employed to further investigate return periods of the current drought condition in year 2015. The obtained results revealed that western Kangwon area was generally more vulnerable to drought risk than eastern Kangwon area using the 40-year data. Imjin-river watershed including Cheorwon area was the most vulnerable area in terms of severe drought events. Four stations in Han-river watershed showed a joint return period exceeding 1,000 years associated with the drought duration and severity in 2014-2015. Especially, current drought status in Northern Han-river and Imjin-river watershed is most severe drought exceeding 100-year return period.

본 연구에서는 가뭄의 특성분석에 유리하며, 확률론적 접근이 가능한 은닉 마코프 모델(HMM) 기반의 가뭄 분석 기법을 적용하였다. HMM 기반의 가뭄의 심도뿐만 아니라 지속시간을 동시에 평가할 수 있도록 코플라 함수 기반의 이변량 가뭄빈도해석 기법을 도입하여 우리나라의 2015년 가뭄 빈도를 평가하였다. 가뭄빈도분석 결과 최근 40년 자료를 기준으로 영동지방에 비해 영서지방이 전체적으로 가뭄이 발생할 경우 가뭄의 심도가 큰 것으로 평가되었다. 심한가뭄의 발생 비율의 경우에 철원의 경우 10%를 상회하는 등 임진강 유역에서 상대적으로 심한가뭄의 발생비율이 크다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 한강유역 일부지점에서는 2014/2015년의 가뭄 지속기간 및 심도의 결합재현기간이 1,000년이 넘는 가뭄이 발생하고 있는 것으로 평가되었다. 특히 북한강 및 임진강 유역에 심한 가뭄이 발생하고 있으며 전반적으로 100년 이상의 기왕최대가뭄을 나타내고 있는 것으로 판단되었다.

Keywords

References

  1. Bonaccorso, B., Bordi, I., Cancelliere, A., Ross, G., and Sutera, A. (2003). "Spatial Variability of Drought: An Analysis of the SPI in Sicily." Water Resources Management, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 273-296. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1024716530289
  2. Dracup, J.A., Lee, K.S., and Paulson, E.G. (1980). "On the Statistical Characteristics of Drought Events." Water Resources Research, Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 289- 296. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR016i002p00289
  3. Kao, S.C., and Govindaraju, R.S. (2007). "A bivariate frequency analysis of extreme rainfall with implications for design." Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 112, Issue. D13, pp. 1-15, doi:10.1029/2007JD 008522.
  4. Kao, S.C., and Govindaraju, R.S. (2010). "A copula-based joint deficit index for droughts." Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 380, pp. 121-134. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.10.029
  5. Kim, T.W., Valdes, J.B., and Yoo, C.S. (2003). "Nonparametric Approach for Estimating Return Periods of Droughts in Arid Regions." Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 8, pp. 237-246. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2003)8:5(237)
  6. Kim, T.W., Valdes, J.B., ASCE, F., and Yoo, C.S. (2006). "Nonparametric Approach for Bivariate Drought Characterization Using Palmer Drought Index." Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 11, pp. 134-143. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2006)11:2(134)
  7. Kwak, J.W., Kim, Y.S., Lee, J.S., and Kim, H.S. (2012). "Analysis of Drought Characteristics Using Copula Theory." Journal of the Korean Civil Engineering, pp. 1762-1771, doi: 10.1061/9780784412312.175.
  8. Kwon, H.H., Kim, T.J., Hwamg, S.H., and Kim, T.W. (2013). "Development of Daily Rainfall Simulation Model Based on Homogeneous Hidden Markov Chain." Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 33, No. 5, pp. 1861-1870. https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2013.33.5.1861
  9. Lee, J.H., Chung, G.H., and Kim, T.W. (2009). "Evaluation of Flood Severity Using Bivariate Gumbel Mixed Model." J. Korea Water Resources Association, Vol. 42, No. 9, pp. 725-736. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2009.42.9.725
  10. Loaiciga, H.A., and Leipnik, R.B. (1996). "Stochastic renewal model of Iow-fow streamflow sequences." Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics, Vol. 10, pp. 65- 85. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01581794
  11. Mirakbari, M., and Ganji, A. (2010). "Reliability analysis of a rangeland system: the application of Profust theory." Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, Vol. 24, pp. 399-409, doi:10.1007/s00477-009-0329-8
  12. Mishra, A.K., and Desai, V.R. (2005). "Drought forecasting using stochastic models." Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, Vol. 19, pp. 326-339, doi:10.1007/s00477-005- 0238-4
  13. Salas, D., Chauvin, F., Deque, M., Douville, H., Gueremy, J.F., Marquet, P., Planton, S., Royer, J.F., and Tyteca, S. (2005). "Description and validation of the CNRMCM3 global coupled model." Climate Dynamics, Vol. 103, pp. 1-36.
  14. Sklar, A. (1959). "Fonctions de repartition a n dimensions et leurs marges." Universite Paris, Vol, 8, pp. 229-231.
  15. Wilhite, D.A., and Glantzb, M.H. (1985). "Understanding: the Drought Phenomenon: The Role of Definitions." Water International, Vol. 10, lssue. 3, pp. 111-120. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508068508686328
  16. Yevjevich, V. (1967). "An objective approach to definitions and investigations of continental hydrologic droughts." Hydrrology papers colorado state university fort collins, colorado, No. 23.
  17. Yoo, J.Y., Kwon, H.H., Kim, T.W., and Lee, S.O. (2014). "Probabilistic Assessment of Drought Characteristics based on Homogeneous Hidden Markov Model." Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 34, No. 1, pp. 145-153. https://doi.org/10.12652/Ksce.2014.34.1.0145
  18. Yoo, J.Y., Kwon, H.H., So, B.J., Rajagopalan, B., and Kim, T.W. (2015). "Identifying the role of typhoons as drought busters in South Korea based on hidden Markov chain models." Geophysical Research Letters. Research Letter, Vol. 42, pp. 2797-2804, doi: 10.1002/ 2015GL063753.
  19. Yue, S. (2001). "A bivariate gamma distribution for use in multivariate flood frequency analysis." Hydrological Processes, Vol. 15, No. 6, pp. 1033-1045. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.259
  20. Zhang, L., and Singh, V.P. (2006). "Bivariate Flood Frequency Analysis Using the Copula Method." Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 150-164. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(2006)11:2(150)

Cited by

  1. A development of trivariate drought frequency analysis approach using copula function vol.49, pp.10, 2016, https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.10.823