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http://dx.doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2015.48.12.969

Drought Frequency Analysis Using Hidden Markov Chain Model and Bivariate Copula Function  

Chun, Si-Young (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Wonkwang University)
Kim, Yong-Tak (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
Publication Information
Journal of Korea Water Resources Association / v.48, no.12, 2015 , pp. 969-979 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study applied a probabilistic-based hidden Markov model (HMM) to better characterize drought patterns. In addition, a copula-based bivariate drought frequency analysis was employed to further investigate return periods of the current drought condition in year 2015. The obtained results revealed that western Kangwon area was generally more vulnerable to drought risk than eastern Kangwon area using the 40-year data. Imjin-river watershed including Cheorwon area was the most vulnerable area in terms of severe drought events. Four stations in Han-river watershed showed a joint return period exceeding 1,000 years associated with the drought duration and severity in 2014-2015. Especially, current drought status in Northern Han-river and Imjin-river watershed is most severe drought exceeding 100-year return period.
Keywords
copula; drought; drought frequency; duration; hidden Markov model; severity;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
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