Environmental and Resource Economics Review (자원ㆍ환경경제연구)

Korean Resource Economics Association (한국자원경제학회)
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The Doubtful Existence of Resource Curse

자원의 저주에 대한 비판적 고찰

  • Received : 2013.01.18
  • Accepted : 2013.06.17
  • Published : 2013.06.30
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Abstract

The term, "resource curse", is widely used to describe how countries rich in natural resources, such as oil, natural gas, and certain minerals, are unable to utilize that wealth to boost their economies. Contrary to previous research on the topic, this study has demonstrated that natural resources have a strong positive correlation with a country's economy. It likewise confirmed that this result is robust with broad sets of exogenous variables, and that the positive impact of natural resources on the economy remains significant with the inclusion of capital stock per worker. In this sense, it is doubtful that resource curse actually exists in the long-run. On the other hand, this study tested whether the quality of institutions has any relation with natural resource endowments if the positive effect of natural resource endowments on the gross domestic product (GDP) is adequately controlled for. In contrast to findings of Alexeev and Conrad (2009), if the former Soviet Union (FSU) countries are included, it seems that there might be a negative and statistically significant relationship between large endowments of natural resources and the quality of institutions. However, this negative relationship loses its significance and some positive albeit insignificant relationships are confirmed in a considerable number of cases when the FSU countries are excluded in the sample. That is, the negative relationship results from the inclusion of the FSU countries. This result is believed to happen by a temporary coincidence of events, a natural resource windfall and political and economic instability during the transition of the FSU countries. Therefore, the argument that resource abundance harms the institutional quality is confirmed to be a little groundless.

"자원의 저주"란 천연자원이 풍부한 국가들이 오히려 경제적으로 낙후되어 있다는 학설이다. 본 논문에서는 기존 연구들과 달리 천연자원 보유 및 생산량이 경제수준과 강한 양(+)의 회귀계수를 보이는 것으로 분석하고 있다. 이러한 결과는 1인당 자본스톡 등 경제성장과 연관된 다양한 설명변수들을 포함시켰을 때에도 유지되고 있다. 이러한 점에서 자원의 저주가 실제로 존재하는 지는 의문이다. 다음으로 천연자원이 경제에 미치는 긍정적인 영향을 통제하고 나서 천연자원 보유 및 생산량에 따른 한 나라의 제도발전 정도를 회귀분석한 결과, 구소련지역 국가들을 포함시키게 되면 선행연구인 Alexeev and Conrad(2009)와는 달리 천연자원 보유량이 제도발전 정도와 음(-)의 회귀계수를 가질 수도 있는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 이러한 음(-)의 회귀계수는 구소련지역 국가들을 분석대상에서 제외하면 모두 통계적 유의성을 상실하였으며, 통계적으로 유의하지는 않지만 상당수 분석결과에서는 양(+)의 회귀계수도 도출되었다. 즉, 음의 회귀계수는 구소련지역 국가들에 의해 도출된 것이라고 할 수 있다. 이러한 결과는 구소련 지역 국가들의 체제이행기 서방자본의 유입으로 인한 천연자원 보유 및 생산량의 급증과 체제변환에 따른 정치경제적 불안정이 동시에 발생한 때문이며, 일시적이고 다분히 우연에 의한 결과로 추정된다. 따라서 천연자원 보유량이 제도 발전 정도에 부정적인 영향을 미친다는 주장도 그 근거가 다소 희박하다고 하겠다.

Keywords

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