이지역 코호트-요인법을 이용한 부산광역시 장래 인구 추계

Population Projections for Busan Using a Biregional Cohort-Component Method

  • Cho, Dae-Heon (Department of Geography Education, Seoul National University) ;
  • Lee, Sang-Il (Department of Geography Education, Seoul National University)
  • 투고 : 2011.04.06
  • 심사 : 2011.04.27
  • 발행 : 2011.04.30

초록

이 연구의 목적은 이지역 코호트 요인법에 의한 인구 추계 방법론을 정립하고, 그것을 부산광역시의 장래 인구 추계에 적용하는 것이다. 우선 시도와 같은 지역 인구의 추계에 있어 우리나라의 공식적인 방법인 순이동 코호트-요인법이 갖는 한계를 예증하였다. 대안으로 지역간 코호트-요인법 중 전체 지역을 두 지역으로 구분한 후 지역 간의 전입과 전출을 분리하여 추계하는 이지역 코호트-요인법을 정립하였다. 이를 바탕으로 부산광역시의 2005~2030년에 대한 인구 추계를 3가지 시나리오 하에서 실행하였다. 순이동 방식을 취한 인구 추계와 이지역 방식을 취한 인구 추계 간에는 상당한 차이가 나타났는데, 전출 초과 지역인 부산의 경우 순이동 방식에서 더 빠른 인구 감소가 나타났다. 이지역 방식에 의한 부산 및 전국추계의 인구 변화 추세를 검토한 결과 추계가 상당히 합리적으로 이루어짐을 확인할 수 있었다. 결론적으로 본 연구에서 제시된 이지역 코호트-요인법은 순이동 코호트-요인법에 비해 논리적으로 더 정연하면서도 실제 추계에 있어서도 높은 유용성을 보여 주었다.

The main objective of this study is to establish a population projection method based on the biregional cohort-component method and to apply it to population projections for Busan. Some drawbacks of using the net migration cohort-component method in a regional or local level population projection are demonstrated. A biregional cohort-component method, a variant of the interregional cohort-component method, is established as an alternative where in-migration and out-migration are separately considered and then are combined to produce a projection for the migration component. Predicated on the established method, population projections for Busan are undertaken for the period of 2005~2030 under three different scenarios. Considerably different projection results are obtained between the net migration and biregional methods; among others, the trend of population decline is more severe in the former than in the latter. An investigation of the temporal trend of the projected population shows that the proposed method is highly reasonable. In conclusion, the proposed method based on the biregional cohort-component method seems not only to be theoretically more robust than the net migration cohort-component method but also to be very effective in the real world application.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Booth, H., 2006, Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review, Working Papers in Demography, 100, Research School of Social Science, The Australian National University.
  2. Choi, Eunyoung, Kim, Kamyoung, Kim, Tai-Hun, Koo, Donghoe, Sim, Sujin, Lee, Sang-Il, and Cho, Daeheon, 2010, Analysis and Modeling of Population Change in Busan, Busan Development Institute (in Korean).
  3. Hollmann, F. W., Mulder, T. J., and Kallan, J. E., 2000, Methodology and Assumptions for the Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100, Population Division Working Paper, 38, U.S. Census Bureau.
  4. Isserman, A. M., 1993, The right people, the right rates: Making population estimates and forecasts with an interregional cohort-component model, Journal of the American Planning Association, 59(1), 45-64. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944369308975844
  5. Jun, Kwang-Hee, 2006, Developemt of fertility assumptions for the future population projection, Korea Journal of Population Studies, 29(2), 53-88 (in Korean).
  6. Kim, Eung Ryul, 2004, Social Research, Korea University Press, Seoul (in Korean).
  7. Kim, Hong-Bae, Kim, Jae-Koo, and Lim, Byung-Chul, 2009, Model development for forecasting regional population: using cohort-compoent method and Markov Chain model, The Journal of Korea Planners Association, 44(6), 139-146 (in Korean).
  8. Kim, Tai-Hun, 2006, Mortality forecasting for population projection, Korea Journal of Population Studies, 29(2), 27-51 (in Korean).
  9. Kim, Tai-Hun, Kim, Dong-Hoy, and Jung, Goo-Hyun, 2006, Population projections for small areas in Korea based on the cohort component method, Journal of The Korean Official Statistics, 11(2), 1-40 (in Korean).
  10. Lee, Hee Yeon, 2003, Demography, Bobmunsa Publishing Co., Seoul (in Korean).
  11. Lee, Sang-Lim and Cho, Young-Tae, 2005, Population projections for lower-level local governments in Korea: based on Hamilton-Perry methods,Korea Journal of Population Studies, 28(1), 149- 172 (in Korean).
  12. O'Neill, B .C., Balk, D., Brickman, M., and Ezra, M., 2001, A Guide to global population projections, Demographic Research, 4, 203-288. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2001.4.8
  13. Park, Yousung, Kim Keewhan, and Kim Seongyong, 2010, Unreliability of official population in Korea, Survey Research, 11(2), 71-95 (in Korean).
  14. Rogers, A., 1985, Regional Population Projection Models, Scientific Geography Series, Vol.4, Beverly Hills, Sage Publications, CA.
  15. Rogers, A., 1995, Multiregional Demography: Principles, Methods and Extensions, John Wiley & Sons, New York.
  16. Rowland, D. T., 2003, Demographic Methods and Concepts, Oxford University Press, Oxford.
  17. Smith, S. K., Tayman, J., and Swanson, D. A., 2001, State and Local Population Projections: Methodology and Analysis, Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers, New York.
  18. Statistics Korea, 2006, Population Projections for Korea : 2005-2050 (in Korean).
  19. Statistics Korea, 2007, Population Projections by Provinces 2005-2030 (in Korean).
  20. Vital Statistics Division of Statistics Korea, 2007, Guidelines for Population Projections by Provinces (in Korean).
  21. Wilson, T. and Bell, M., 2004, Comparative empirical evaluations of internal migration models in subnational population projections, Journal of Population Research, 21(2), 127-160. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03031895
  22. Woo, Hae Bong, 2009, The accuracy of the national population projections for the Republic of Korea and its implications, Survey Research, 10(2), 71-96 (in Korean).
  23. Woo, Hae Bong, 2010, Stochastic demographic and population forecasting, Journal of Population Studies, 33(1), 161-189 (in Korean).