한국인구학 (Korea journal of population studies)

한국인구학회 (The Population Association of Korea)
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산업국가에서의 제2차 인구변천

The Second Demographic Transition in Industrialized Countries

  • 발행 : 2009.04.30
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초록

이 글은 유럽을 중심으로 진행된 제2차 인구변천에 관한 논의를 검토하고, 이러한 논의가 한국 사회의 출산력 변천에 어떤 함의를 지니고 있는가를 제시하고자 한다. 제2차 인구변천에 관한 논의는 기본적으로 산업국가에서 출산력 수준이 대체수준 이하로 감소되고 있는 상황을 설명하기 위한 노력에서 출발하였다. 제1차 인구변천과 달리 제2차 인구변천은 종착점으로 인구의 균형상태를 상정하지는 않는다. 오히려 새로운 변화는 대체수준 이하의 출산력, 결혼이 아닌 다양한 형태의 삶의 양식, 결혼과 출산의 무관계성, 안정된 인구의 부재 등을 가져올 것으로 전망한다. 또한 제2차 인구변천은 이민자의 유입이 없으면 인구가 지속적으로 감소할 것이며, 저출산과 평균수명의 연장의 결과로 인해 제1차 인구변천이론에 의해 예측된 인구보다 고령화될 것으로 전망한다. 제2차 인구변천에 대한 논의는 인구변천을 겪고 있는 유럽 국가들의 인구학적 변화를 밝히는데 중요할 뿐만 아니라 한국 사회의 인구학적 변화를 설명하는데 중요한 근거를 제공할 것으로 기대된다. 한국의 제2차 인구변천에서 두드러지게 나타나고 있는 상황은 저출산이다. 저출산 현상은 다양한 요인들이 유기적으로 연결되어 나타난 것이다. 이 중 결혼율의 감소, 초혼 연령의 상승, 이혼율의 상승, 소자녀 가치관 등 가족형성과 관련된 변수들은 저출산에 직접적으로 영향을 주는 변인으로 볼 수 있다. 이들은 제2차 인구변천 내용에 포함된 인구학적 변수들과 크게 다르지 않다. 다만 이러한 변인들에 영향을 주는 요인들이 유럽 사회와 다르게 작동하고 있는 것으로 보인다. 인구학적 변인 이외에 양성평등의 관념, 노동시장의 불안정성, 자녀 양육 및 교육 비용 등은 한국 사회의 저출산을 이해하는데 상대적으로 설명력이 큰 변인으로 볼 수 있다.

The first demographic transition refers to the historical decline in mortality and fertility, as shown from the 18th Century in several European populations, and continuing present in most developing countries. The end point of the first demographic transition(FDT) was supposed to be a stationary and stable population corresponding with replacement fertility and zero population growth. In addition, households in all parts of the world would converge toward the nuclear and conjugal types, composed of married couples and their offspring. The second demographic transition(SDT), on the other hand, sees no such equilibrium as the end-point. Rather, new developments bring sub-replacement fertility, a multitude of living arrangements other than marriage, and the disconnection between marriage and procreation. Populations would face declining sizes if not complemented by new migrants. Over the last decades birth rates have been on the decline in all countries of the world, and it is estimated that already more than half of he world's population has below replacement level fertility. Measured in terms of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), currently 34 countries have fertility levels of 1.5 or less. Similarly, Korea has been below lowest-low fertility for eight consecutive years since 2001 and below the replacement level for more than twenty years. In explaining the low fertility in Korea, some researchers explain the low fertility as revenge against a male-dominated society and institution, while others focus the impact of the employment instability. These studies share the basic ideas (spread of individualism, delayed marriage and childbearing, high divorce rate etc.) of a second demographic transition in order to explain the low fertility in Korea.

키워드

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