Browse > Article

The Second Demographic Transition in Industrialized Countries  

Chung, Sung-Ho (강원대학교 사회학과)
Publication Information
Korea journal of population studies / v.32, no.1, 2009 , pp. 139-164 More about this Journal
Abstract
The first demographic transition refers to the historical decline in mortality and fertility, as shown from the 18th Century in several European populations, and continuing present in most developing countries. The end point of the first demographic transition(FDT) was supposed to be a stationary and stable population corresponding with replacement fertility and zero population growth. In addition, households in all parts of the world would converge toward the nuclear and conjugal types, composed of married couples and their offspring. The second demographic transition(SDT), on the other hand, sees no such equilibrium as the end-point. Rather, new developments bring sub-replacement fertility, a multitude of living arrangements other than marriage, and the disconnection between marriage and procreation. Populations would face declining sizes if not complemented by new migrants. Over the last decades birth rates have been on the decline in all countries of the world, and it is estimated that already more than half of he world's population has below replacement level fertility. Measured in terms of the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), currently 34 countries have fertility levels of 1.5 or less. Similarly, Korea has been below lowest-low fertility for eight consecutive years since 2001 and below the replacement level for more than twenty years. In explaining the low fertility in Korea, some researchers explain the low fertility as revenge against a male-dominated society and institution, while others focus the impact of the employment instability. These studies share the basic ideas (spread of individualism, delayed marriage and childbearing, high divorce rate etc.) of a second demographic transition in order to explain the low fertility in Korea.
Keywords
first demographic transition; second demographic transition; stable population; replacement fertility; low fertility;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 2  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 김두섭 (2005) '한국의 제2차 출산력변천과 그 인과구조' '인구와 사회' 1(1): 23-53. 한양대학교 인구 및 고령사회연구소
2 박경애 (2006) '한국의 출산력 감소: 추이, 결정요인 및 정책적 함의' '인구와 사회' 2(2): 77-113. 한양대학교 인구 및 고령사회연구소
3 Bauman, Z. (2000) Liquid modernity. Polity Press, Cambidge
4 Giddens, A. (1992) The transformation of intimacy: Sexuality, love & eroticism in modern societies. Polity Press, Cambridge
5 Lesthaeghe, R. (1995) 'The second demographic transition in Western countries: An interpretation', In: K.O. Mason and A.M. Jensen (eds.) Gender and family change in industrialized countries. Oxford, Clarendon Press, pp. 17-62
6 Lesthaeghe, R. and K. Neels (2005) 'From the first to the second demographic transition; An interpretation of the spatial continuity of demographic innovation in France, Belgiun and Switzerland', Interface Demography, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2. B-1050 Brussels, Belgium
7 Rotariu, T. (2006) 'Romania and the Second Demographic Transition: The traditional value system and low fertility rates' International Journal of Sociology 36(1): 10-27   DOI   ScienceOn
8 Van de Kaa, D.J. (1987) 'Europe's second demographic transition' Population Bulletin, 42(1) Washington, The Population Reference Bureau
9 Van de Kaa, D.J. (1994) 'The second demographic transition revisited: Theories and expectations pp.81-126 in: G.C.N Beets et al. (eds) Population and Family in the low Countries 1993: Late fertility and other current issues. NIDI/CBGS Publication, No. 30, Swets and Zeitlinger, Berwyn, Pennsylvania/Amsterdam, pp.81-126
10 Van de Kaa, D.J. (2002) 'The idea of a second demographic transition in Industrialized Countries' Paper presented at the Sixth Welfare Policy Seminar of the National Institute of Population and Social Security, Tokyo, Japan, 29 January 2002
11 이성용 (2006) '경제위기와 저출산' '한국인구학' 29(3): 111-138. 한국인구학회
12 Inglehart, R. (1997) Modernization and postmodernization: Cultural, economic, and political change in 43 societies. Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press
13 Freijka, T. and Calot, G. (2001) 'Cohort reproductive patterns in low-fertility countries', Population and Development Review 27(1): 103-132   DOI   ScienceOn
14 Lutz, W. and V. Skirbekk (2005) 'Policies addressing the tempo effect in low-fertility countries,' Population and Development Review 31(4): 699-720   DOI   ScienceOn
15 Coleman, D. (2004) 'Why we don't have to believe without doubtingin the second demographic transition - some agnostic comments.' Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2004: 11-24
16 Eurostat (2006) Population Statistiscs 2006 edition. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities
17 Lutz, W., V. Skirbekk, and M.R. Testa (2006) 'The low fertility trap hypothesis: Forces that may lead to further postponement and fewer births in Europe', Interim Report, International Institute for Applied System Analysis, IR-06-017
18 Goldin, C. (2006) 'The quiet revolution that transformed women's employment, education, and family,' American Economic Review 96(2): 1-21   DOI   ScienceOn
19 Van Bavel, J. (2007) 'Subreplacement fertility in the West before the baby boom (1900-1940: Current and contemporary perspectives,' Paper presented at the 32nd Annual Meeting of the Social Science History Association, Chicago IL., Nov. 18, 2007
20 Lesthaeghe, R. and J. Surkyn (2004) 'When history moves on: The foundation and diffusion of a second demographic transition' Paper presented at the seminar on 'Ideational perspectives on international family change', Population Studies Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann arbor
21 McDonald, P. (2000) 'Gender equity, social institutions and the future of fertility', Journal of Population Research 17(1): 1-15   DOI   ScienceOn
22 유삼현 (2006) '지역별 차별출산력의 분석: 저출산 인과구조의 이해' '인구와 사회' 2(2); 53-76. 한양대학교 인구 및 고령사회연구소
23 McDonald, P. (2005) 'Low fertility in Singapore: Causes, consequences and policies,' Paper presented at the Forum on Population and Development in East Asia, Beijing, May 16-17, 2005
24 Lesthaeghe, R. and L. Neidert (2006) 'The second demographic transition in the United States: Exception or textbook example?' Population and Deveopment Review 32(4): 669-698   DOI   ScienceOn
25 김두섭 (2007) '한국의 경제위기와 출산력 변화' 집문당
26 박수미 (2008) '둘째 출산 계획이 결정요인과 가족내 성 형평성' '한국인구학' 31(1): 55-74. 한국인구학회
27 De Beer, J., M. Corijn and F. Deven (2000) 'Summary and discussion,' In: J. De Beer and F. Deven (eds.) Diversity in family formation: The 2nd demographic transition in Belgium and in the Netherlands. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 115-130
28 Van de Kaa, D.J. (2004) 'Demographic revolutions or transitions: A foreword,' In: T. Frejka and J.P. Sardon (eds.) Childbearing trends and prospects in low-fertility countries: A cohort analysis, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. x-xiv
29 Liefbroer, A.C. and T. Fokkema (2008) 'Recent developments in demographically relevant attitudes and behavior: New challenges for s new era?' In: J. Surkin, P. Deboosere and J. van Bavel (eds.) Demographic challenges for the 21st Century: A state of art in demography. Brussels: VUBPRESS, pp. 115-141
30 Chenais, J.C. (1992) The demographic transition: Stages, patterns and economic implications. Oxford, Clarendon Press
31 Lesthaeghe, R. and van de Kaa, D.J. (1986) Two Demographic Transitions? In: D.J. van de Kaa and R. Lesthaeghe (eds.), Population: Growth and Decline, pp.9-24. Van Loghum Slaterus
32 Sutton, P. and T.J. Mathews (2004) 'Trends in characteristics of births by state: United States, 1990, 1995, and 2000-2002,' National Vital Statistics Report 52(9). National Vital Statistics System and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, US Department of Health and Human Services
33 Micheli, G. (2004) 'On the verge of familistic interpretation, moods and other alchemies', In: G. Dalla Zuanna and G. Micheli (eds.) Strong family and low fertility: A paradox' European Studies of Population Vol. 14, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp.127-160
34 Van de Kaa, D.J. (2001) 'Postmodern fertility preferences: From changing value orientation to new behavior, pp. 290-332 in: R.A. Bulatao and J.B. Casterline (eds), Global Fertility Transition, Supplement to PDR, Vol. 27, New York, Population Council
35 Carlson, A.C. (2003) 'The fertility gap: Recrafting American population,' Family Policy Lectures, Family Research Council website, 14 December: 1-14
36 Bongaarts, J. (2001) 'Fertility and reproductive preferences in post-transitional societies' pp. 260-282. In: R.A. Bulatao and J.B. Casterline (eds.), Global Fertility Transition, Supplement to PDR, vol. 27, New York, Population Council
37 은기수,이윤석 (2005) '한국의 가족가치에 대한 국제비교연구' '한국인구학' 28(1): 107-132