한국건설관리학회:학술대회논문집 (Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management)
- 한국건설관리학회 2003년도 학술대회지
- /
- Pages.485-490
- /
- 2003
리스크 분석에 기초한 대형건설공사의 예비비 산정에 관한 연구
Risk-based Decision Model to Estimate the Contingency for Large Construction Projects
- 발행 : 2003.11.01
초록
최근 대내외적인 건설환경의 급격한 변화와 건설공사의 대형화
Nowadays the rapid change in construction environment getting more globalized and complicated has caused lots of unexpected risks from inside and out of the country, so more sophisticated construction management strategies are being strongly needed. This paper suggests a risk management model with which we can estimate the appropriate contingency by quantifying the amount of probable risks immanent in large construction projects, which have a high degree of uncertainty in the anticipation of the total construction cost. To develop the model, the risk factors that make cost variations are elicited based on the real data of the contingencies assigned to the past projects. Furthermore, the influential relationship of risk factors is structured by applying the CRM(Cost Risk Model) which is the synthetic model of Monte Carlo Simulation, Influence Diagram and Decision Tree. The ultimate outcome of this research can by validated by tile case study with a large construction project performed.