• Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.279-293
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• 2017

This study suggests the yield forecast models for autumn chinese cabbage and radish using crop growth and development information. For this, we construct 24 alternative yield forecast models and compare the predictive power using root mean square percentage errors. The results shows that the predictive power of model including crop growth and development informations is better than model which does not include those informations. But the forecast errors of best forecast models exceeds 5%. Thus it is important to establish reliable data and improve forecast models.

• Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.555-567
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• 2017

This study suggests the yield forecast model for chilli pepper using artificial neural network. For this, we select the most suitable network models for chilli pepper's yield and compare the predictive power with adaptive expectation model and panel model. The results show that the predictive power of artificial neural network with 5 weather input variables (temperature, precipitation, temperature range, humidity, sunshine amount) is higher than the alternative models. Implications for forecasting of yields are suggested at the end of this study.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.62 no.4
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• pp.482-488
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• 2013

Load forecasting is essential to the economical and the stable power system operations. In general, the forecasting days can be classified into weekdays, weekends, special days and special light-load periods in short-term load forecast. Special light-load periods are the consecutive holidays such as Lunar New Years holidays, Korean Thanksgiving holidays and summer special light-load period. For the weekdays and the weekends forecast, the conventional methods based on the statistics are mainly used and show excellent results for the most part. The forecast algorithms for special days yield good results also but its forecast error is relatively high than the results of the weekdays and the weekends forecast methods. For summer special light-load period, none of the previous studies have been performed ever before so if the conventional methods are applied to this period, forecasting errors of the conventional methods are considerably high. Therefore, short-term load forecast for summer special light-load period have mainly relied on the experience of power system operation experts. In this study, the trends of load profiles during summer special light-load period are classified into three patterns and new forecast algorithms for each pattern are suggested. The proposed method was tested with the last ten years' summer special light-load periods. The simulation results show the excellent average forecast error near 2%.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Quality Management Conference
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• 2004.04a
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• pp.148-151
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• 2004

This study presents a new intelligent yield management methodology which can forecast the yield level of a production unit based on features' behaviors. In this proposed methodology, we identify the existing features using C5.0 that are combination of nodes (i.e., variables) in the decision tree generated by C5.0, use SOM(Self-Organizing Map) neural networks in oder to extract the feature's patterns and classify, and then make features' control rules using C5.0.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.243-260
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• 2008

To prevent low yields in the semiconductor industry is crucial to the success of that industry. However, to prevent low yields is difficult because of too many factors to affect yield variation and their complex relation in the semiconductor manufacturing process. This study presents a new efficient detection methodology for detecting abnormal yields including high and low yields, which can forecast the yield level of a production unit (namely a lot) based on yield-related feature variables' behaviors. In the methodology, we use C5.0 to identify the yield-related feature variables that are the combination of correlated process variables associated with yield, use SOM (Self-Organizing Map) neural networks to extract and classify significant patterns of past abnormal yield lots and finally use C5.0 to generate classification rules for detecting abnormal yield lot. We illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology using a semiconductor manufacturing company's field data.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.391-404
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• 2021

This study developed a long-term prediction model for the potential yield of garlic based on a genetic algorithm (GA) by utilizing global climate reanalysis data. The GA is used for digging the inherent signals from global climate reanalysis data which are both directly and indirectly connected with the garlic yield potential. Our results indicate that both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts reasonably capture the inter-annual variability of crop yields with temporal correlation coefficients significant at 99% confidence level and superior categorical forecast skill with a hit rate of 93.3% for 2 × 2 and 73.3% for 3 × 3 contingency tables. Furthermore, the GA method, which considers linear and non-linear relationships between predictors and predictands, shows superiority of forecast skill in terms of both stability and skill scores compared with linear method. Since our result can predict the potential yield before the start of farming, it is expected to help establish a long-term plan to stabilize the demand and price of agricultural products and prepare countermeasures for possible problems in advance.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.112-121
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• 2007

In occasion of soil loss happened in a basin, soil in the near of a stream may flow into the stream easily, but in case that soil is far away from the stream, sediment yield transferred to rivers by rainfall diminishes. To forecast sediment yield of a stream is an essential item for management of basins and streams. Therefore, sediment yield of soil loss produced from a basin is needed to be calculated as accurate as possible. Purpose of the present research is to calculate soil erosion amount in a basin and to forecast sediment yield flowed into a stream by rainfall and analyze sediment yield in the stream. There are various methods that analyze sediment yield of rivers. In the present study, the soil erosion amount was calculated using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation(RUSLE) and GRID, and sediment yield was calculated using sediment delivery ratio and empirical methods. DEM data, slope of basin, soil map and landuse constructed by GIS were used for input data of RUSLE. The upstream area of the Yeongsan river basin in Gwangju metropolitan city was selected for the study area. Three methods according to the calculation of LS factor were applied to estimate the soil erosion amount. Two sediment delivery ratio methods for the respective methods were applied and, correspondingly, six occasions in sediment yield were calculated. In addition, the above results were compared by relative amount with estimation by the empirical method of Ministry of Construction & Transportation. Sediment yield calculated in the present study may be utilized for the plan, design and management of dams and channels, and evaluation of disaster impact.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.40 no.3
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• pp.99-114
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• 2018

In the present study, we assess the GloSea5 (Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5) near-surface ocean current forecasts using globally observed surface drifter dataset. Annual mean surface current fields at 0-day forecast lead time are quite consistent with drifter-derived velocity fields, and low values of root mean square (RMS) errors distributes in global oceans, except for regions of high variability, such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, Kuroshio, and Gulf Stream. Moreover a comparison with the global high-resolution forecasting system, HYCOM (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model), signifies that GloSea5 performs well in terms of short-range surface-current forecasts. Predictions from 0-day to 4-week lead time are also validated for the global ocean and regions covering the main ocean basins. In general, the Indian Ocean and tropical regions yield relatively high RMS errors against all forecast lead times, whilst the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans show low values. RMS errors against forecast lead time ranging from 0-day to 4-week reveal the largest increase rate between 0-day and 1-week lead time in all regions. Correlation against forecast lead time also reveals similar results. In addition, a strong westward bias of about $0.2m\;s^{-1}$ is found along the Equator in the western Pacific on the initial forecast day, and it extends toward the Equator of the eastern Pacific as the lead time increases.

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2018.06a
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• pp.131-131
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• 2018

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.37-43
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• 2001

Crop status monitoring and yield prediction at higher spatial resolution is a valuable tool in various decision making processes including agricultural policy making by the national and local governments. A prototype crop forecasting system was developed to project the size of rice crop across geographic areas nationwide, based on daily weather pattern. The system consists of crop models and the input data for 1,455 cultivation zone units (the smallest administrative unit of local government in South Korea called "Myun") making up the coterminous South Korea. CERES-rice, a rice crop growth simulation model, was tuned to have genetic characteristics pertinent to domestic cultivars. Daily maximum/minimum temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation surface on 1km by 1km grid spacing were prepared by a spatial interpolation of 63 point observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration network. Spatial mean weather data were derived for each Myun and transformed to the model input format. Soil characteristics and management information at each Myun were available from the Rural Development Administration. The system was applied to the forecasting of national rice production for the recent 3 years (1997 to 1999). The model was run with the past weather data as of September 15 each year, which is about a month earlier than the actual harvest date. Simulated yields of 1,455 Myuns were grouped into 162 counties by acreage-weighted summation to enable the validation, since the official production statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is on the county basis. Forecast yields were less sensitive to the changes in annual climate than the reported yields and there was a relatively weak correlation between the forecast and the reported yields. However, the projected size of rice crop at each county, which was obtained by multiplication of the mean yield with the acreage, was close to the reported production with the $r^2$ values higher than 0.97 in all three years.