• Title/Summary/Keyword: weibull analysis

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Regimen-related Mortality Risk in Patients Undergoing Peritoneal Dialysis Using Hypertonic Glucose Solution: A Retrospective Cohort Study

  • Sujimongkol, Chinakorn;Pongskul, Cholatip;Promthet, Supannee
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.205-212
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    • 2018
  • Objectives: The main purpose of this study was to quantify the risk of mortality linked to various regimens of hypertonic peritoneal dialysis (PD) solution. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of patients using home-based PD was carried out. The prescribed regimen of glucose-based PD solution for all patients, determined on the basis of their individual conditions, was extracted from their medical chart records. The primary outcome was death. The treatment regimens were categorized into 3 groups according to the type of PD solution used: original PD (1.5% glucose), shuffle PD (1.5 and 2.5% glucose), and serialized PD (2.5 and 4.5% glucose). Multivariate analysis (using the Weibull model) was applied to comprehensively examine survival probabilities related to the explanatory variable, while adjusting for other potential confounders. Results: Of 300 consecutive patients, 38% died over a median follow-up time of 30 months (interquartile range: 15-46 months). Multivariate analysis showed that a treatment regimen with continued higher-strength PD solution (serialized PD) resulted in a lower survival rate than when the conventional strength solution was used (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.6 to 4.6, p<0.01). Five interrelated risk factors (age, length of time on PD, hemoglobin levels, albumin levels, and oliguria) were significant predictors contributing to the outcome. Conclusions: Frequent exposure to high levels of glucose PD solution significantly contributed to a 2-fold higher rate of death, especially when hypertonic glucose was prescribed continuously.

Evaluation of Performance and Reliability of a White Organic Light-Emitting Diode(WOLED) Using an Accelerated Life Test(ALT) (가속수명시험(ALT)을 이용한 WOLED의 성능 및 신뢰성 평가)

  • Moon, Jin-Chel;Park, Hyung-Ki;Choi, Chung-Seog
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.13-19
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to extract the major factors related to the deterioration mechanism of white organic light-emitting diodes(WOLED) by performing accelerated testing of temperature, voltage, time, etc., and to develop an accelerated life test(ALT) model. The measurement results of the brightness of the WOLED exhibited that their average brightness tended to increase as the operating voltage increased and that the half-life period of the brightness appeared after approximately 400 hours when the operating voltage was 20V and the ambient temperature was $85^{\circ}C$. It could be seen that although the WOLED showed comparatively the same brightness when the initial acceleration began after the operating voltage was applied to it, its brightness changed excessively after the WOLED's thermal storage had been made. In addition, it was observed that the half-life period was reduced as the ambient temperature and applied voltage increased. The strength of the WOLED which had been maintained in the range of visible light at the maximum load was reduced by the deterioration of the organic light emitting material due to the influence of the operating voltage and temperature, and the reduction of emitted light was small at low voltage and temperature. It could be seen that the failure of the WOLED during the ALT was caused by wear due to load accumulation over time, and that Weibull distribution was appropriate for the life distribution and acceleration was established between test conditions. From the WOLED analysis, it is thought that factors influencing the brightness deterioration are voltage, temperature, etc., and that comprehensive analysis considering discharge control, dielectric tangent margin, etc., would further increase the reliability.

Derivation of Optimal Design Flood by L-Moments and LB-Moments ( I ) - On the method of L-Moments - (L-모멘트 및 LH-모멘트 기법에 의한 적정 설계홍수량의 유도( I ) - L-모멘트법을 중심으로 -)

  • 이순혁;박명근;맹승진;정연수;김동주;류경식
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.45-57
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    • 1998
  • This study was conducted to derive optimal design floods by Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for the annual maximum series at ten watersheds along Han, Nagdong, Geum, Yeongsan and Seomjin river systems. Adequacy for the analysis of flood data used in this study was established by the tests of Independence, Homogeneity, detection of Outliers. L-coefficient of variation, L-skewness and L-kurtosis were calculated by L-moment ratio respectively. Parameters were estimated by the Methods of Moments and L-Moments. Design floods obtained by Methods of Moments and L-Moments using different methods for plotting positions in GEV distribution were compared by the Relative Mean Errors(RME) and Relative Absolute Errors(RAE). The results were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1. Adequacy for the analysis of flood data was acknowledged by the tests of Independence, Homogeneity and detection of Outliers. 2. GEV distribution used in this study was found to be more suitable one than Pearson type 3 distribution by the goodness of fit test using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and L-Moment ratios diagram in the applied watersheds. 3. Parameters for GEV distribution were estimated using Methods of Moments and L-Moments. 4. Design floods were calculated by Methods of Moments and L-Moments in GEV distribution. 5. It was found that design floods derived by the method of L-Moments using Weibull plotting position formula in GEV distribution are much closer to those of the observed data in comparison with those obtained by method of moments using different formulas for plotting positions from the viewpoint of Relative Mean Errors and Relative Absolute Errors.

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The Prediction of Remaining Life of Concrete Bridge Decks Using The Reliability Analysis (신뢰도 분석을 통한 고속도로 교량의 바닥판 잔존 수명 예측)

  • Park, Jung-Hee;Lee, Sang-Soon;Kim, Ji-Won;Park, Cheol-Woo;Lee, Dong-Hyun
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2011
  • Korean national highway has been increased 2 times more for the past ten years because of many highway geometric improvements and new routes since 2000. According to the reasons, maintenance cost has been increased continuously. Deterioration of concrete bridge decks caused by asphalt pavement deformation occupies a high proportion of overall bridge management budget. The number of current highway bridges has reached over 7,800 in 2011, and It is difficult to determine to some future budget. This study predicted the remaining life of concrete bridge decks using the reliability analysis based on Weibull distribution. and The expected future maintenance cost was estimated.

V-t Characteristics and Survival Probability of Turn-to-Turn Models for HTS Transformer (고온초전도 변압기를 위한 턴간 모델의 V-t 특성 및 생존 확률)

  • Baek, Seung-Myeong;Cheon, Hyeon-Gweon;Nguyen, Van-Dung;Seok, Bok-Yeol;Kim, Sang-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.356-362
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    • 2004
  • Using multi wrapped copper by polyimide film for HTS transformer, the breakdown and V-t characteristics of two type models for turn-to-turn, one is point contact model, the other is surface contact model, were investigated under ac and impulse voltage at 77 K. A material that is Polyimide film (Kapton) 0.025 mm thickness is used for multi wrapping of the electrode. Statistical analysis of the results using Weibull distribution to examine the wrapping number effects on V-t characteristics under at voltage as well as breakdown voltage under ac and impulse voltage in $LN_2$ was carried. Also, survival analysis was performed according to the Kaplan-Meier method. The breakdown voltages for surface contact model are lower than that of the point contact model, because the contact area of surface contact model is wider than that of point contact model. At the same time, the shape parameter of the point contact model is a little bit larger than the of the surface contact model. The time to breakdown tn is decreased as the applied voltage is increased, and the lifetime indices slightly are increased as the number of layers is increased. According to the increasing applied voltage and decreasing wrapping number, the survival probability is increased.

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The effect of coloring liquid dipping time on the fracture load and color of zirconia ceramics

  • Orhun, Ekren
    • The Journal of Advanced Prosthodontics
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.67-73
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    • 2017
  • PURPOSE. The aims of the study were to evaluate the fracture load of zirconia core material after dipping in coloring liquid at different time intervals and to compare the color of dipped blocks with that of prefabricated shaded blocks. MATERIALS AND METHODS. 3-unit bridge frameworks were designed digitally. Sixty frameworks were fabricated using uncolored zirconia blocks by CAD/CAM and divided into 4 groups randomly (n = 15). Group 2 (G2) was subjected to coloring liquids for 2 minutes, Group 4 (G4) for 4 minutes, and Group 6 (G6) for 6 minutes. CFS group was not subjected to any coloring procedure. After coloring, color differences between the test groups and a prefabricated shaded zirconia group (CPZ, n = 15) were evaluated by using a spectrophotometer. Fracture test was conducted immediately after shade evaluation with a Testometric test device at a cross-head speed of 1 mm/sec. Statistical analysis for evaluating color and fracture load was performed by using one way ANOVA followed by Tukey HSD test ($P{\leq}.05$). Weibull analysis was conducted for distribution of fracture load. RESULTS. There was no difference in terms of fracture load and color between CFS (1176.681 N) and G2 (985.638 N) group and between CPZ (81.340) and G2 (81.140) group, respectively. Fracture load values of G4 (779.340 N) and G6 (935.491 N) groups were statistically significantly lower than that of CFS group ($P{\leq}.005$). The color values of G4 (79.340) and G6 (79.673) groups were statistically different than that of CPZ group ($P{\leq}.005$). CONCLUSION. Prolonged immersion of zirconia in coloring liquid not only negatively affected the fracture load of the zirconia being tested in the current study but also deteriorated the desired shade of the restoration.

Regional Analysis of Particulate Matter Concentration Risk in South Korea (국내 지역별 미세먼지 농도 리스크 분석)

  • Oh, Jang Wook;Lim, Tea Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.157-167
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    • 2017
  • Millions of People die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor air pollution. Especially, one of the most severe types of air pollution is fine particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5). South Korea also has been suffered from severe PM. This paper analyzes regional risks induced by PM10 and PM2.5 that have affected domestic area of Korea during 2014~2016.3Q. We investigated daily maxima of PM10 and PM2.5 data observed on 284 stations in South Korea, and found extremely high outlier. We employed extreme value distributions to fit the PM10 and PM2.5 data, but a single distribution did not fit the data well. For theses reasons, we implemented extreme mixture models such as the generalized Pareto distribution(GPD) with the normal, the gamma, the Weibull and the log-normal, respectively. Next, we divided the whole area into 16 regions and analyzed characteristics of PM risks by developing the FN-curves. Finally, we estimated 1-month, 1-quater, half year, 1-year and 3-years period return levels, respectively. The severity rankings of PM10 and PM2.5 concentration turned out to be different from region to region. The capital area revealed the worst PM risk in all seasons. The reason for high PM risk even in the yellow dust free season (Jun. ~ Sep.) can be inferred from the concentration of factories in this area. Gwangju showed the highest return level of PM2.5, even if the return level of PM10 was relatively low. This phenomenon implies that we should investigate chemical mechanisms for making PM2.5 in the vicinity of Gwangju area. On the other hand, Gyeongbuk and Ulsan exposed relatively high PM10 risk and low PM2.5 risk. This indicates that the management policy of PM risk in the west side should be different from that in the east side. The results of this research may provide insights for managing regional risks induced by PM10 and PM2.5 in South Korea.

A Study on Comparison of Risk Estimates Among Various Exposure Scenario of Several Volatile Organic Compounds in Tap Water (음용수중 휘발성 유기오염물질의 노출경로에 따른 위해도 추정치 비교연구)

  • Chung, Yong;Shin, Dong-Chun;Kim, Jong-Man;Yang, Ji-Yeon;Park, Seong-Eun
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.10 no.1_2
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    • pp.21-35
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    • 1995
  • Risk assessment processes, which include processes for the estimation of human cancer potency using animal bioassay data and calculation of human exposure, entail uncertainties. In the exposure assessment process, exposure scenarios with various assumptions could affect the exposure amount and excess cancer risk. We compared risk estimates among various exposure scenarios of vinyl chloride, trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethylene in tap water. The contaminant concentrations were analyzed from tap water samples in Seoul from 1993 to 1994. The oral and inhalation cancer potencies of the contaminants were estimated using multistage, Weibull, lognormal, and Mantel-Bryan model in TOX-RISK computer software. In the first case, human excess cancer risk was estimated by the US EPA method used to set the MCL(maximum contaminant level). In the second and third case, the risk was estimated for multi-route exposure with and without adopting Monte-Carlo simulation, respectively. In the second case, exposure input parameters and cancer potencies used probability distributions, and in the third case, those values used point estimates(mean, and maximum or 95% upper-bound value). As a result, while the excess cancer risk estimated by US EPA method considering only direct ingestion tended to be underestimated, the risk which was estimated by considering multi-route exposure without Monte-Carlo simulation and then using the maximum or 95% upper-bound value as input parameters tended to be overestimated. In risk assessment for volatile organic compounds, considering multi-route exposure with adopting Monte-Carlo analysis seems to provide the most reasonable estimations.

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Evaluation of goodness of fit of semiparametric and parametric models in analysis of factors associated with length of stay in neonatal intensive care unit

  • Kheiry, Fatemeh;Kargarian-Marvasti, Sadegh;Afrashteh, Sima;Mohammadbeigi, Abolfazl;Daneshi, Nima;Naderi, Salma;Saadat, Seyed Hossein
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.63 no.9
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    • pp.361-367
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    • 2020
  • Background: Length of stay is a significant indicator of care effectiveness and hospital performance. Owing to the limited number of healthcare centers and facilities, it is important to optimize length of stay and associated factors. Purpose: The present study aimed to investigate factors associated with neonatal length of stay in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) using parametric and semiparametric models and compare model fitness according to Akaike information criterion (AIC) between 2016 and 2018. Methods: This retrospective cohort study reviewed 600 medical records of infants admitted to the NICU of Bandar Abbas Hospital. Samples were identified using census sampling. Factors associated with NICU length of stay were investigated based on semiparametric Cox model and 4 parametric models including Weibull, exponential, log-logistic, and log-normal to determine the best fitted model. The data analysis was conducted using R software. The significance level was set at 0.05. Results: The study findings suggest that breastfeeding, phototherapy, acute renal failure, presence of mechanical ventilation, and availability of central venous catheter were commonly identified as factors associated with NICU length of stay in all 5 models (P<0.05). Parametric models showed better fitness than the Cox model in this study. Conclusion: Breastfeeding and availability of central venous catheter had protective effects against length of stay, whereas phototherapy, acute renal failure, and mechanical ventilation increased length of stay in NICU. Therefore, the identification of factors associated with NICU length of stay can help establish effective interventions aimed at decreasing the length of stay among infants.

The Study for NHPP Software Reliability Growth Model based on Exponentiated Exponential Distribution (지수화 지수 분포에 의존한 NHPP 소프트웨어 신뢰성장 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hee-Cheul
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.11 no.5 s.43
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    • pp.9-18
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    • 2006
  • Finite failure NHPP models presented in the literature exhibit either constant, monotonic increasing or monotonic decreasing failure occurrence rates per fault. In this paper, Goel-Okumoto and Yamada-Ohba-Osaki model was reviewed, proposes the exponentiated exponential distribution reliability model, which maked out efficiency substituted for gamma and Weibull model(2 parameter shape illustrated by Gupta and Kundu(2001) Algorithm to estimate the parameters used to maximum likelihood estimator and bisection method, model selection based on SSE, AIC statistics and Kolmogorov distance, for the sake of efficient model, was employed. Analysis of failure using NTDS data set for the sake of proposing shape parameter of the exponentiated exponential distribution was employed. This analysis of failure data compared with the exponentiated exponential distribution model and the existing model (using arithmetic and Laplace trend tests, bias tests) is presented.

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