• 한국환경농학회지
• /
• 제41권1호
• /
• pp.16-23
• /
• 2022

BACKGROUND: Rice production by the current standard cultivation method is predicted to decrease due to global warming. It seems that there has been a strong warming trend in Hwaseong-si, Gyeonggi-do. This study attempted to understand the climate change in Hwaseongsi, Gyeonggi-do and to analyze the effect of climate change on rice production. METHODS AND RESULTS: The statistical and physicochemical analyses were performed using the rice cultivar 'Chucheongbyeo' yields grown at the rice paddy field plot in the Gyeonggi-do Agricultural Research and Extension Services and the weather data measured in near the rice paddy plot. CONCLUSION(S): There was no significant difference between the average rice yields per area in 2000s (2001~2010) and 2010s (2011~2020), but the rice yield variability was greater in 2010s than in 2000s. The mean, minimum, maximum temperature, and the sunshine hours were evaluated for the correlation with the rice yield. The understanding of climate change in Hwaseong-si, Gyeonggi-do and the major weather factors affecting changes in rice yield, presented in this study, would enhance scientific understanding of regional climate change, and improve rice cultivation management.

• 한국기후변화학회지
• /
• 제9권1호
• /
• pp.47-58
• /
• 2018

In this study, we evaluated the uncertainty in the process of selecting GCM and downscaling method for assessing the impact of climate change, and influence of user-centered climate change information on reproducibility of Chungju Dam inflow was analyzed. First, we selected the top 16 GCMs through the evaluation of spatio-temporal reproducibility of 29 raw GCMs using 30-year average of 10-day precipitation without any bias-correction. The climate extreme indices including annual total precipitation and annual maximum 1-day precipitation were selected as the relevant indices to the dam inflow. The Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) downscaling method was selected through the evaluation of reproducibility of selected indices and spatial correlation among weather stations. SWAT simulation results for the past 30 years period by considering limitations in weather input showed the satisfactory results with monthly model efficiency of 0.92. The error in average dam inflow according to selection of GCMs and downscaling method showed the bests result when 16 GCMs selected raw GCM analysi were used. It was found that selection of downscaling method rather than selection of GCM is more is important in overall uncertainties. The average inflow for the future period increased in all RCP scenarios as time goes on from near-future to far-future periods. Also, it was predicted that the inflow volume will be higher in the RCP 8.5 scenario than in the RCP 4.5 scenario in all future periods. Maximum daily inflow, which is important for flood control, showed a high changing rate more than twice as much as the average inflow amount. It is also important to understand the seasonal fluctuation of the inflow for the dam management purpose. Both average inflow and maximum inflow showed a tendency to increase mainly in July and August during near-future period while average and maximum inflows increased through the whole period of months in both mid-future and far-future periods.

• 한국대기환경학회지
• /
• 제26권1호
• /
• pp.34-47
• /
• 2010

Long-range transport of air pollutants was simulated using Comprehensive Acid Deposition Model (CADM) and Yonsei University-Sulfuric Acid Deposition Model (YU-SADM). For the simulation, weather patterns that represent the four seasons were derived through a clustering analysis with 5-years of meteorological data. The simulation result showed that in spring, influenced by strong low pressure from China, air pollutants of moved to the Korean Peninsula. In summer, humid air moved into the Korean Peninsula across the Yellow Sea while the north pacific high pressure extended, making the concentration of air pollutants lower than that in the other seasons. In autumn, air pollutants were transported by the northwest wind caused by the movement of high pressure over the Yellow Sea, while in winter air pollutants were influenced by northwest winds from continental highs. The amount of air pollutants in each season showed that high amount of pollutants were transported in winter due to the strong northwest wind. The in-flows were 3 to 8 times higher than those of the other seasons, and out-flows were about as twice as high. The amount of wet deposition in summer and autumn increased significantly compared to the amount in the other seasons due to the increase of rainfall. Source-receptor relationship analysis for sulfur showed that 70 to 91 precent of the total deposition came from the self-contribution by the Korean Peninsula. In winter, contribution from China was about 25 percent of the total deposition which was higher amount than any other season.

• 문화기술의 융합
• /
• 제9권2호
• /
• pp.171-179
• /
• 2023

인간에 의한 기후변화로 전 지구적 이상 기상현상이 발생해 재난이 증가하고 있다. 주요 선진국(군)은 극한기상 출몰에 따른 재난을 대비 중이다. 다만, 현재 방재계획·설비가 통계 데이터를 바탕으로 한 빈도·강도법을 기준으로 시행되었는데, 잦아지는 극한기상에 따른 재난을 확률 근거 기반 대비로는 부족하다. 미군과 영국군은 가장 빨리 기후변화 및 재난양상 변화 위협 관련 연구 및 정책적 접근을 해왔고, 기후변화 완화 및 적응 모두 고려하고 있다. 우리 군은 재난에 대한 인식을 '풍수해' 정도로 여기며, 기후변화 양상에 따른 극한기상과 재난에 대한 논의가 부족한 편이다. 본 연구에서는 선진국(미국과 영국)의 재난관리시스템 구축과정을 살펴보고 기후위기와 극한기상이 출몰하는 상황에서 각 국(군)의 대응 정책을 문헌분석 기법을 활용해 분석하였다. 우리 군은 빈틈없는 안보를 유지하기 위해 지속가능성과 회복탄력성에 초점을 둔 대응정책을 수립해야하며, 다음 세 가지 정책적 접근이 필요하다. 첫째, 기후변화로 변화될 환경에 대비한 미래 한반도 작전 환경 분석이 필요하다. 둘째, 지속가능성을 위해 기후변화 '적응정책'에 대한 논의가 필요하다. 셋째, 기후변화로 인해 발생 가능한 미래재난에 대한 대비가 필요하다.

• 한국항해항만학회지
• /
• 제26권4호
• /
• pp.465-472
• /
• 2002

워터프린트는 도심 및 내륙지역과는 다른 독특한 기후특성을 가지고 있으며 이를 고려하지 않고 개발할 경우 시설물의 하자발생, 에너지 및 유지관리비용의 상승을 초래하게 됨은 물론 배후지, 도시기후에 악영향을 미치게 된다. 본 연구는 부산지역의 10개 기상관측지점을 해안선에서 거리에 따라 워터프린트 및 내륙지역으로 분류하고 5년 간의 기상데이터를 이용하여 워터프런트의 기후특성에 대해 검토한다. 또 한 워터프런트 지역임에도 내륙지역과 유사한 기후특성이 나타나고 있는 대연지점을 대상으로 기후특성변화의 원인에 대해 검토한다.

• 한국농림기상학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국농림기상학회 2011년도 학술발표회
• /
• pp.20-27
• /
• 2011

A system for fine-resolution long-range weather forecast is introduced in this study. The system is basically consisted of a global-scale coupled general circulation model (CGCM) and Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) regional model. The system makes use of a data assimilation method in order to reduce the initial shock or drift that occurs at the beginning of coupling due to imbalance between model dynamics and observed initial condition. The long-range predictions are produced in the system based on a non-linear ensemble method. At the same time, the model bias are eliminated by estimating the difference between hindcast model climate and observation. In this research, the predictability of the forecast system is studied, and it is illustrated that the system can be effectively used for the high resolution long-term weather prediction. Also, using the system, fine-resolution climatological data has been produced with high degree of accuracy. It is proved that the production of agrometeorological variables that are not intensively observed are also possible.

• 대기
• /
• 제27권4호
• /
• pp.499-509
• /
• 2017

Possible links among cosmic ray, cloud, and climate have scientific uncertainties. The reputed topics have been highly controversial during several decades. A link between the atmospheric ionization by galactic cosmic rays (GCR), which is modulated by solar activities, and global cloud cover was firstly proposed in 1997. Some researchers suggested that the GCR can stimulate the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the atmosphere, and then the higher CCN concentrations may lead to an increase of cloud cover, resulting in a cooling of the Earth's climate, and vise versa. The CLOUD (Cosmic leaving outdoor droplets) experiment was designed to study the effect of GCR on the formation of atmospheric aerosols and clouds under precisely controlled laboratory conditions. A state-of-the-art chamber experiment has greatly advanced our scientific understanding of the aerosol formation in early stage and its nucleation processes if the GCR effect is considered or not. Many studies on the climate-GCR (or space weather) connection including the CLOUD experiment have been carried out during the several decades. Although it may not be easy to clarify the physical connection, the recent scientific approaches such as the laboratory experiments or modeling studies give some implications that the research definitively contributed to reduce the scientific uncertainties of natural and anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing as well as to better understand the formation processes of fine particulate matters as an important parameter of air quality forecast.

• 한국대기환경학회지
• /
• 제28권3호
• /
• pp.261-272
• /
• 2012

In this study, climate variability was predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under two different scenarios (current trends scenario; SC1 and managed scenario; SC2) for future urban growth over the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA). We used the urban growth model, SLEUTH (Slope, Land-use, Excluded, Urban, Transportation, Hill-Shade) to predict the future urban growth in SMA. As a result, the difference of urban ratio between two scenarios was the maximum up to 2.2% during 50 years (2000~2050). Also, the results of SLEUTH like this were adjusted in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to analysis the difference of the future climate for the future urbanization effect. By scenarios of urban growth, we knew that the significant differences of surface temperature with a maximum of about 4 K and PBL height with a maximum of about 200 m appeared locally in newly urbanized area. However, wind speeds are not sensitive for the future urban growth in SMA. These results show that we need to consider the future land-use changes or future urban extension in the study for the prediction of future climate changes.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
• /
• 제32권6호
• /
• pp.537-544
• /
• 2016

We developed a model, termed D-PSA-K, to estimate the accumulated potential damage on kiwifruit canes caused by bacterial canker during the growing and overwintering seasons. The model consisted of three parts including estimation of the amount of necrotic lesion in a non-frozen environment, the rate of necrosis increase in a freezing environment during the overwintering season, and the amount of necrotic lesion on kiwifruit canes caused by bacterial canker during the overwintering and growing seasons. We evaluated the model's accuracy by comparing the observed maximum disease incidence on kiwifruit canes against the damage estimated using weather and disease data collected at Wando during 1994-1997 and at Seogwipo during 2014-2015. For the Hayward cultivar, D-PSA-K estimated the accumulated damage as approximately nine times the observed maximum disease incidence. For the Hort16A cultivar, the accumulated damage estimated by D-PSA-K was high when the observed disease incidence was high. D-PSA-K could assist kiwifruit growers in selecting optimal sites for kiwifruit cultivation and establishing improved production plans by predicting the loss in kiwifruit production due to bacterial canker, using past weather or future climate change data.

• 한국농공학회논문집
• /
• 제59권2호
• /
• pp.69-79
• /
• 2017

In this study, we developed real-time urban stream discharge forecasting model using short-term rainfall forecasts data simulated by a regional climate model (RCM). The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecasting System (CFS) data was used as a boundary condition for the RCM, namely the Global/Regional Integrated Model System(GRIMs)-Regional Model Program (RMP). In addition, we make ensemble (ESB) forecast with different lead time from 1-day to 3-day and its accuracy was validated through temporal correlation coefficient (TCC). The simulated rainfall is compared to observed data, which are automatic weather stations (AWS) data and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA 3B43; 3 hourly rainfall with $0.25^{\circ}{\times}0.25^{\circ}$ resolution) data over midland of Korea in July 26-29, 2011. Moreover, we evaluated urban rainfall-runoff relationship using Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Several statistical measures (e.g., percent error of peak, precent error of volume, and time of peak) are used to validate the rainfall-runoff model's performance. The correlation coefficient (CC) and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) are evaluated. The result shows that the high correlation was lead time (LT) 33-hour, LT 27-hour, and ESB forecasts, and the NSE shows positive values in LT 33-hour, and ESB forecasts. Through this study, it can be expected to utilizing the real-time urban flood alert using short-term weather forecast.