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http://dx.doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2017.59.2.069

Application of Urban Stream Discharge Simulation Using Short-term Rainfall Forecast  

Yhang, Yoo Bin (Climate Research Department, APEC Climate Center)
Lim, Chang Mook (Climate Research Department, APEC Climate Center)
Yoon, Sun Kwon (Climate Research Department, APEC Climate Center)
Publication Information
Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers / v.59, no.2, 2017 , pp. 69-79 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this study, we developed real-time urban stream discharge forecasting model using short-term rainfall forecasts data simulated by a regional climate model (RCM). The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecasting System (CFS) data was used as a boundary condition for the RCM, namely the Global/Regional Integrated Model System(GRIMs)-Regional Model Program (RMP). In addition, we make ensemble (ESB) forecast with different lead time from 1-day to 3-day and its accuracy was validated through temporal correlation coefficient (TCC). The simulated rainfall is compared to observed data, which are automatic weather stations (AWS) data and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA 3B43; 3 hourly rainfall with $0.25^{\circ}{\times}0.25^{\circ}$ resolution) data over midland of Korea in July 26-29, 2011. Moreover, we evaluated urban rainfall-runoff relationship using Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Several statistical measures (e.g., percent error of peak, precent error of volume, and time of peak) are used to validate the rainfall-runoff model's performance. The correlation coefficient (CC) and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) are evaluated. The result shows that the high correlation was lead time (LT) 33-hour, LT 27-hour, and ESB forecasts, and the NSE shows positive values in LT 33-hour, and ESB forecasts. Through this study, it can be expected to utilizing the real-time urban flood alert using short-term weather forecast.
Keywords
CFS; GRIMs-RMP; Short-term rainfall Forecast; Urban discharge;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
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