• Title/Summary/Keyword: watersheds

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Improving SARIMA model for reliable meteorological drought forecasting

  • Jehanzaib, Muhammad;Shah, Sabab Ali;Son, Ho Jun;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.141-141
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    • 2022
  • Drought is a global phenomenon that affects almost all landscapes and causes major damages. Due to non-linear nature of contributing factors, drought occurrence and its severity is characterized as stochastic in nature. Early warning of impending drought can aid in the development of drought mitigation strategies and measures. Thus, drought forecasting is crucial in the planning and management of water resource systems. The primary objective of this study is to make improvement is existing drought forecasting techniques. Therefore, we proposed an improved version of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model (MD-SARIMA) for reliable drought forecasting with three years lead time. In this study, we selected four watersheds of Han River basin in South Korea to validate the performance of MD-SARIMA model. The meteorological data from 8 rain gauge stations were collected for the period 1973-2016 and converted into watershed scale using Thiessen's polygon method. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed to represent the meteorological drought at seasonal (3-month) time scale. The performance of MD-SARIMA model was compared with existing models such as Seasonal Naive Bayes (SNB) model, Exponential Smoothing (ES) model, Trigonometric seasonality, Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS) model, and SARIMA model. The results showed that all the models were able to forecast drought, but the performance of MD-SARIMA was robust then other statistical models with Wilmott Index (WI) = 0.86, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) = 0.66, and Root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.80 for 36 months lead time forecast. The outcomes of this study indicated that the MD-SARIMA model can be utilized for drought forecasting.

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Estimation of GHG emissions and footprint from Daecheong Reservoir using G-res Tool

  • Min, Kyeongseo;Kim, Dongmin;Chung, Sewoong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.209-209
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    • 2022
  • Reservoirs play a key role in the carbon cycle between terrestrial and marine systems and are pathways that release greenhouse gases(GHGs), CO2, CH4, and N2O, into the atmosphere by decomposing organic matters. Developed countries have been actively conducting research on carbon emission assessment of dam reservoirs for over 10 years under the leadership of UNESCO/IHA, but associated research is very rare in Korea. In particular, the GHGs footprint evaluation, which calculates the change in net carbon emission considering the watershed environment between pre- and post- impoundment, is very important in evaluating the carbon emission of hydroelectric dams. The objective of this study was to estimate the GHG emissions and footprints in Daecheong Reservoir using the G-res Tool, an online platform developed by UNESCO/IHA. The G-res Tool estimates CO2 and CH4 emissions in consideration of diverse pathway fluxes of GHGs from the reservoir and characterizes changes in GHG fluxes over 100 years based on the expected lifetime of the dam. The input required to use the G-res Tool include data related to watersheds, reservoirs, and dams, and most were collected through the government's public portal. As a result of the study, the GHG footprint of Daecheong Reservoir was estimated to be 93 gCO2eq/m2/yr, which is similar to that of other reservoirs around the world in the same climate zone. After impoundment, the CH4 diffusion emission from the reservoir was 73 gCO2eq/m2/yr, also similar to those of the overseas reservoirs, but the CH4 bubbling emission, degassing emission, and CO2 diffusion emissions were 44, 34, 252 gCO2eq/m2/yr, respectively, showing a rather high tendency. Since the dam reservoir carbon footprint evaluation is essential for the Clean Development Mechanism evaluation of hydroelectric power generation, continuous research is needed in the future. In particular, experimental studies that can replace the emission factors obtained from the overseas dam reservoirs currently used in the G-res Tool should be promoted.

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Investigation on Mean Diameter of Bed Material and Relationship with Tractive Force in Korean Rivers (국내하천 하상재료 대표입경 조사 및 소류력과의 관계 분석)

  • LEE, Du Han;SON, Minwoo
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.29-39
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    • 2011
  • This study aims to investigate the relationship between the mean diameter of bed material and the tractive force due to flow in domestic natural rivers. To investigate the size of bed material, sampling in the field and estimation of mean diameter have been conducted. The relationship between the mean diameters and tractive force is figured out by calculating tractive force and frictional velocity. The field works have been carried out at 94 location of 18 rivers including 4 large watersheds. In order to determine the quantities of discharge used to calculate the tractive force, the various values of frequency have been estimated and tested. As a result, it is found that the 1.01 year frequency discharge is most appropriate for the bankfull discharge. From results, the relatioship between the mean diameter of bed material the tractive force is presented in this study.

A Study on the Selection of the Total Pollution Load Management at Tributaries by Evaluation of Water Quality Volatility: Case Study for Chungcheongnam-do (수질변동성 평가를 통한 지류총량제 도입 대상유역 선정에 관한 연구: 충청남도를 중심으로)

  • Jeongho Choi;Hongsu Kim;Byunguk Cho;Sanghyun Park;Mukyu Lee;Byeonggu Lee;Uram Kang
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.39 no.5
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    • pp.377-389
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    • 2023
  • Chungcheongnam-do has been measuring the flow rate and water quality of streams in the province once a month since 2011 in order to water environment policies. Based on the results, after evaluating the coefficient of variation and the tendency of the water quality trend by using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's Slope for each stream, the streams subject to priority introduction of Total Pollution Load Management at Tributaries were selected through the Stream Grouping Method. The water quality trend analysis results for 125 streams using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's Slope were evaluated as streams showing a tendency of deteriorating water quality Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD): 13 streams, Total Phosphorus (T-P): 16 streams). Streams with deteriorating water quality were classified into A-D groups using the Stream Grouping Method. Group A, which has a high flow rate and high water quality, is a stream that requires priority management, and was selected as a stream for introduction of Total Pollution Load Management at Tributaries. There are 7 streams that need to be introduced into the BOD category, and there are 7 streams that need to be introduced into the T-P category. In this study, based on flow and water quality monitoring data accumulated over a long period of time (2011-2022), statistical techniques are used to select watersheds in which water quality is deteriorating. Accordingly, it is expected that it will be useful in establishing a water quality improvement plan in the future.

Analysis of Inundation Area in the Agricultural Land under Climate Change through Coupled Modeling for Upstream and Downstream (상·하류 연계 모의를 통한 기후변화에 따른 농경지 침수면적 변화 분석)

  • Park, Seongjae;Kwak, Jihye;Kim, Jihye;Kim, Seokhyeon;Lee, Hyunji;Kim, Sinae;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.66 no.1
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    • pp.49-66
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    • 2024
  • Extreme rainfall will become intense due to climate change, increasing inundation risk to agricultural land. Hydrological and hydraulic simulations for the entire watershed were conducted to analyze the impact of climate change. Rainfall data was collected based on past weather observation and SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathway)5-8.5 climate change scenarios. Simulation for flood volume, reservoir operation, river level, and inundation of agricultural land was conducted through K-HAS (KRC Hydraulics & Hydrology Analysis System) and HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System). Various scenarios were selected, encompassing different periods of rainfall data, including the observed period (1973-2022), near-term future (2021-2050), mid-term future (2051-2080), and long-term future (2081-2100), in addition to probabilistic precipitation events with return periods of 20 years and 100 years. The inundation area of the Aho-Buin district was visualized through GIS (Geographic Information System) based on the results of the flooding analysis. The probabilistic precipitation of climate change scenarios was calculated higher than that of past observations, which affected the increase in reservoir inflow, river level, inundation time, and inundation area. The inundation area and inundation time were higher in the 100-year frequency. Inundation risk was high in the order of long-term future, near-term future, mid-term future, and observed period. It was also shown that the Aho and Buin districts were vulnerable to inundation. These results are expected to be used as fundamental data for assessing the risk of flooding for agricultural land and downstream watersheds under climate change, guiding drainage improvement projects, and making flood risk maps.

Improvement and application of SWMM-ING for carbon reduction in green infrastructure (그린인프라시설의 탄소저감을 위한 SWMM-ING 개선 및 적용성 평가)

  • Young Jun Lee;Chaeyoung Lee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.335-345
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    • 2023
  • In Korea, as part of the Green New Deal project toward a carbon-neutral society, it is necessary to build a climate-resilient urban environment to green the city, space, and living infrastructure. To this end, SWMM-ING was improved and the model was modified to analyze the carbon reduction effect. In addition, I plan to select target watersheds where urbanization is rapidly progressing and evaluate runoff, non-point pollution, and carbon reduction effects to conduct cost estimation and optimal design review for domestic rainwater circulation green infrastructure. In this study, green infrastructure facilities were selected using SWMM-ING. Various scenarios were presented considering the surface area and annual cost of each green infrastructure facility, and The results show that the scenario derived through the APL2 method was selected as the optimal scenario. In this optimal scenario, a total facility area of 190,517.5 m2 was applied to 7 out of 30 subwatersheds to achieve the target reduction. The target reduction amount was calculated a 23.50 % reduction in runoff and a 26.99 % reduction in pollutant load. Additionally, the annual carbon absorption was analyzed and found to be 385,521 kg/year. I aim to achieve additional carbon reduction effects by achieving the goal of reducing runoff and non-point pollution sources and analyzing annual carbon absorption. Moreover, considering the scale-up of these interventions across the basin, it is believed that an objective assessment of economic viability can be conducted.

Proposal for a conceptual framework and budgets for sediment management at the river basin scale (유역규모에서의 퇴적물 관리를 위한 퇴적물 수지와 개념적 틀 제안)

  • Jin Kwan Kim
    • The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
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    • v.32 no.1_2
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    • pp.51-66
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    • 2018
  • Climate change and large-scale human interference increase flow instability due to changes in watershed flow and sediment transport patterns. There are local problems in solving problems related to sediments, namely the existence of specific problems at specific sites or areas, and the resolution of these problems is limited to short-term and regional, resulting in other temporal and spatial influences and impacts. Therefore, this study intends to introduce and propose a conceptual framework for comprehensive sediment management in terms of watershed scale for solving problems related to sediments in watersheds. In the watershed scale, comprehensive sediment management should be done, to do this, a comprehensive understanding of the movements of sediments accompanied by cooperation with science-policy-operation-residents should be given priority.

Influence of Land Use on the Pollution Load in the Saemangeum Basin (새만금 유역에서 토지 이용이 오염부하에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Lee, Deog-Bae;Kim, Jong-Cheon;Lee, Kyung-Bo;Kim, Jong-Gu;Park, Chan-Won
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.237-244
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    • 2006
  • The SMG project has been driven to secure food and water resources by closing of the SMG dyke for the preparation of the unification of Korean peninsular. It was investigated for pollution loads, land use distribution and water consumption for environmental assessments in two watersheds, the Mankyeong River (MK) and the Dongjin River (DJ) to assess the role of agricultural land on the alleviation of pollution loads to the SMG basin. It is needed to give the priority in managing pollution sources to conserve freshwater in the Saemangeum (SMG) basin after the completion of the SMG reclamation from tideland. The MK has $700million\;m^3$ water of which 14.1% were used for living, 73.6% for agriculture and 12.3% for industry. The DJ has $505million\;m^3$ water of which 3.0% for living, 94.5% for agriculture and 2.5% for industry. As compared to proportion of each land of total area, agricultural land was 1.4 times larger, livestock farming 7 times larger, forest 0.74 times smaller, and built-up area 0.67 times smaller in DJ watershed than in MK watershed. Pollution sources in MK and DJ watersheds were originated at a higher proportion from population including the sewage disposal and a livestock farming area rather than from the land. Water consumption and land use distribution influenced the water quality of the rivers; DJ watershed had far lower value of electric conductivity, $BOD_5$, TN and TP than MK watershed. A large proportion of paddy field also influenced to reduce pollute loadings after rainfall; DJ watershed, which has a relatively large area of paddy fields, had a far lower delivery load after rainfall than MK watershed even though DJ watershed had large livestock farming area. As paddy fields was irrigated by Iksancheon water, 37% of nitrogen, 50% of phosphates and 14.0% of $BOD_5$ was removed by the paddy field just after flowing 150 meter, and rice plants could remove TN 100.0 kg, $P_2O_5$ 24.0 kg, and $K_2O$ 119.2 kg per hectare at harvest by irrigation of Iksancheon water. Conclusively, rice paddy fields played a positive role to conserve the water quality in the Iksancheon watershed.

Soil Erosion Risk Assessment by Soil Characteristics and Landuse in the Upper Nakdong River Basin (토양 특성 및 토지이용에 따른 낙동강 상류지역 토양침식위험성 평가)

  • Park, Chan-Won;Sonn, Yeon-Kyu;Hyun, Byung-Keun;Song, Kwan-Cheol;Chun, Hyun-Chung;Cho, Hyun-Jun;Moon, Yong Hee;Yun, Sun-Gang
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.890-896
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    • 2012
  • This study was conducted to evaluate soil erosion risk with a standard unit watershed in the upper Upper Nakdong River Basin according to soil characteristics and landuse using the spatial soil erosion map. The study area is $3,605.6km^2$, which consists of 2 subbasins, 35 standard unit watersheds (Andong basin 18, Imha basin 17). As a evaluation of soil erosion potential using the spatial soil erosion map, total annual soil loss and soil loss per area estimated $2,013{\times}10^3Mg\;yr^{-1}$ (Andong basin 979, Imha basin 1,034) and $6.1Mg\;ha^{-1}yr^{-1}$ (Andong basin 6.0, Imha basin 5.2), respectively. 54.2% of soil loss was originated from Arable land (Andong basin 49.0%, Imha basin 59.0%), and the area of regions, graded as higher "Moderate" for annual soil loss, was $201.7km^2$ (Andong basin 84.9, Imha basin 116.8). Average soil loss per area of unit watersheds by classification according to soil dominant parent material types ranked "Sedimentary rock group" > "Mixed group" > "Metamorphic rock group" > "Igneous rock group". In conclusion, the results of this study inform that the classification of soil parent material type would be effective for soil erosion analysis and interpretation in the Upper Nakdong River Basin.

Analysis of National Stream Drying Phenomena using DrySAT-WFT Model: Focusing on Inflow of Dam and Weir Watersheds in 5 River Basins (DrySAT-WFT 모형을 활용한 전국 하천건천화 분석: 전국 5대강 댐·보 유역의 유입량을 중심으로)

  • LEE, Yong-Gwan;JUNG, Chung-Gil;KIM, Won-Jin;KIM, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2020
  • The increase of the impermeable area due to industrialization and urban development distorts the hydrological circulation system and cause serious stream drying phenomena. In order to manage this, it is necessary to develop a technology for impact assessment of stream drying phenomena, which enables quantitative evaluation and prediction. In this study, the cause of streamflow reduction was assessed for dam and weir watersheds in the five major river basins of South Korea by using distributed hydrological model DrySAT-WFT (Drying Stream Assessment Tool and Water Flow Tracking) and GIS time series data. For the modeling, the 5 influencing factors of stream drying phenomena (soil erosion, forest growth, road-river disconnection, groundwater use, urban development) were selected and prepared as GIS-based time series spatial data from 1976 to 2015. The DrySAT-WFT was calibrated and validated from 2005 to 2015 at 8 multipurpose dam watershed (Chungju, Soyang, Andong, Imha, Hapcheon, Seomjin river, Juam, and Yongdam) and 4 gauging stations (Osucheon, Mihocheon, Maruek, and Chogang) respectively. The calibration results showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.76 in average (0.66 to 0.84) and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.62 in average (0.52 to 0.72). Based on the 2010s (2006~2015) weather condition for the whole period, the streamflow impact was estimated by applying GIS data for each decade (1980s: 1976~1985, 1990s: 1986~1995, 2000s: 1996~2005, 2010s: 2006~2015). The results showed that the 2010s averaged-wet streamflow (Q95) showed decrease of 4.1~6.3%, the 2010s averaged-normal streamflow (Q185) showed decreased of 6.7~9.1% and the 2010s averaged-drought streamflow (Q355) showed decrease of 8.4~10.4% compared to 1980s streamflows respectively on the whole. During 1975~2015, the increase of groundwater use covered 40.5% contribution and the next was forest growth with 29.0% contribution among the 5 influencing factors.