• Title/Summary/Keyword: volatility of price

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Evaluation of Investment Value of Renewable Energy and Decision Making for Market Entry Using the Idle Space of Public Enterprises (공기업 유휴공간을 활용한 신재생에너지 투자사업에 대한 실물옵션기반 의사결정방안)

  • Na, Seoung Beom;Jang, Woosik;Kim, Kyeongseok;Kim, Byungil;Lee, Harry;Lee, Changgeun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.168-175
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    • 2020
  • Recently, there has been an increasing need to expand the supply of renewable energy as a solution to greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, as a measure to promote domestic renewable energy investment and gradual expansion, this study analyzed the investment value of renewable energy projects utilizing the unoccupied spaces of public enterprise's facilities and presented a strategic decision-making framework to support efficient national land development and government measures. The NPV was estimated to be 286 million won if the expansion of the facility was not considered, but it is reasonable to postpone the expansion decision because the value of -130 million won was calculated if the expansion was considered. On the other hand, the real-option value was estimated to be 444 million won, taking SMP uncertainty, expansion, and abandonment options into account, and an additional value of 288 million won was calculated from an analysis of the expansion project using the existing NPV analysis.

Gross Profitability Premium in the Korean Stock Market and Its Implication for the Fund Distribution Industry (한국 주식시장에서 총수익성 프리미엄에 관한 분석 및 펀드 유통산업에 주는 시사점)

  • Yoon, Bo-Hyun;Liu, Won-Suk
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.9
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - This paper's aim is to investigate whether or not gross profitability explains the cross-sectional variation of the stock returns in the Korean stock market. Gross profitability is an alternative profitability measure proposed by Novy-Marx in 2013 to predict cross-sectional variation of stock returns in the US. He shows that the gross profitability adds explanatory power to the Fama-French 3 factor model. Interestingly, gross profitability is negatively correlated with the book-to-market ratio. By confirming the gross profitability premium in the Korean stock market, we may provide some implications regarding the well-known value premium. In addition, our empirical results may provide opportunities for the fund distribution industry to promote brand new styles of funds. Research design, data, and methodology - For our empirical analysis, we collect monthly market prices of all the companies listed on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) of the Korea Exchanges (KRX). Our sample period covers July1994 to December2014. The data from the company financial statementsare provided by the financial information company WISEfn. First, using Fama-Macbeth cross-sectional regression, we investigate the relation between gross profitability and stock return performance. For robustness in analyzing the performance of the gross profitability strategy, we consider value weighted portfolio returns as well as equally weighted portfolio returns. Next, using Fama-French 3 factor models, we examine whether or not the gross profitability strategy generates excess returns when firmsize and the book-to-market ratio are controlled. Finally, we analyze the effect of firm size and the book-to-market ratio on the gross profitability strategy. Results - First, through the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression, we show that gross profitability has almost the same explanatory power as the book-to-market ratio in explaining the cross-sectional variation of the Korean stock market. Second, we find evidence that gross profitability is a statistically significant variable for explaining cross-sectional stock returns when the size and the value effect are controlled. Third, we show that gross profitability, which is positively correlated with stock returns and firm size, is negatively correlated with the book-to-market ratio. From the perspective of portfolio management, our results imply that since the gross profitability strategy is a distinctive growth strategy, value strategies can be improved by hedging with the gross profitability strategy. Conclusions - Our empirical results confirm the existence of a gross profitability premium in the Korean stock market. From the perspective of the fund distribution industry, the gross profitability portfolio is worthy of attention. Since the value strategy portfolio returns are negatively correlated with the gross profitability strategy portfolio returns, by mixing both portfolios, investors could be better off without additional risk. However, the profitable firms are dissimilar from the value firms (high book-to-market ratio firms); therefore, an alternative factor model including gross profitability may help us understand the economic implications of the well-known anomalies such as value premium, momentum, and low volatility. We reserve these topics for future research.

Neoliberal Urbanization and Projects of Entrepreneurial City (신자유주의적 도시화와 기업주의 도시 프로젝트)

  • Choe, Byeong-Doo
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.263-285
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    • 2011
  • Despite the process of neoliberalization has made a decisive influence on our society as a whole, there seems little interests in neoliberal urbanization and entrepreneurial urban projects promoting it. This study is to see relationships between neolibealization process and recent urbanization and urban policies in terms of entrepreneurial city mediating them. In particular, this paper tries to reconceptualize entrepreneurial city as corresponding to privatization and commodification, financialization, state redistribution, and management and manipulation of crises which Harvey(2005) suggests as four main features of neoliberalization process in general and 'accumulation by dispossession' in particular, and to characterize it in terms of 'creative destruction' and of 'entrepreneurial governance'. As examined in the later part of this paper, recent cases of these entrepreneurial urban projects in S. Korea include volatility of land and housing price in the Capital region and urban regeneration and newtown projects, project for free economic zones construction in Incheon and other 5 regions, project for SOC construction heavily relying on private investment, in particular project financing pursued nationwidely including Daegu, and project of urban cultural marketing to promote capital inflow tacitly as well as to enhance urban imagine explicitly.

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The Effects of Institutional Block Ownership on Market Liquidity (기관투자자의 대량주식보유가 시장유동성에 미치는 영향)

  • Cho, Kyung-Shick;Jung, Heon-Yong
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.83-97
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    • 2014
  • This study examined the effects institutional block ownership on the stock market liquidity in Korean Stock Market. The two measures of institutional block ownership are used. They are the percentage of a stock owned by institutional blockholder and the number of institutional blockholder that own the stock. This study used the Amihud(2002) illiquidity measure to measure stock market liquidity. The results are as fellows. First, this study showed that the number of institutional blockholder is significantly negatively correlated with the Amihud(2002) illiquidity measure in the analysis which is used the whole data. But we found no a consistent results between the number of institutional blockholder and the Amihud(2002) illiquidity measure in the grouped institutional blockholder's number analysis. This indicates that the effects institutional blockholder on market liquidity is not simple. Second, this study showed that the percentage of a stock owned by institutional blockholder are negatively related with Amihud(2002) illiquidity measure, especially revealed statistically significant in the group 3(11.71%~17.38%) and group 4(7.45%~11.65%). This results suggest that the institutional blockholder have positive effect on the market liquidity in the group 3 and 4. Third, the significance of the percentage of institutional block ownership and the number of institutional block ownership in explaining illiquidity are more showed in the term of the global financial crisis(2008) than the before and the after of the global financial crisis.

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A study on the estimation of onion's bulb weight using multi-level model (다층모형을 활용한 양파 구중 추정 연구)

  • Kim, Junki;Choi, Seung-cheon;Kim, Jaehwi;Seo, Hong-Seok
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.763-776
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    • 2020
  • Onions show severe volatility in production and price because crop conditions highly depend on the weather. The government has designated onions as a sensitive agricultural product, and prepared various measures to stabilize the supply and demand. First of all, preemptive and reliable information on predicting onion production is essential to implement appropriate and effective measures. This study aims to contribute to improving the accuracy of production forecasting by developing a model to estimate the final weight of onions bulb. For the analysis, multi-level model is used to reflect the hierarchical data characteristics consisting of above-ground growth data in individual units and meteorological data in parcel units. The result shows that as the number of leaf, stem diameter, and plant height in early May increase, the bulb weight increases. The amount of precipitation as well as the number of days beyond a certain temperature inhibiting carbon assimilation have negative effects on bulb weight, However, the daily range of temperature and more precipitation near the harvest season are statistically significant as positive effects. Also, it is confirmed that the fitness and explanatory power of the model is improved by considering the interaction terms between level-1 and level-2 variables.

A Study on Risks and Returns Using A Housing Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM): the Case of Three Gangnam Districts Apartment Market in Seoul (주택 자본자산가격결정모형(Capital Asset Pricing Model)을 활용한 위험과 수익 분석: 서울 강남 3개구 아파트시장의 경우)

  • Lee, Jong-Ah;Jeong, Jun-Ho
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.234-252
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    • 2010
  • This paper examines the tendency of housing assets to become increasingly quasi-financial assets by analyzing the relationships between risks and returns in three Gangnam districts (Gangnam-gu, Seocho-gu and Songpa-gu) apartment markets in Seoul, especially for the apartments to be reconstructed, capitalizing upon some capital asset pricing models (CAPM). A single factor CAPM model shows positive relationships between risks and returns regardless of the types of apartments in three Gangnam districts. Multi-factors CAPM models also confirm that the market and SMB (small minus big) factors are positively related to the rate of returns regardless of the types of apartments. However, the unsystematic risk factor is found to be statistically positive especially for the apartments to be reconstructed, while the momentum factor is dependent upon the regression models used. An analysis on some portfolios classified by the size of apartments and price volatility and/or beta values suggests that there are the positive linear relationships between risks and returns and the SMB factor is clearly found to be significant in determining the rate of returns. In particular, housing assets are highly highlighted as investment goods and/or quasi financial assets for the apartments to be constructed in the Gangnam housing.

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A Study on Design of Optimal Location for Renewable Energy Facility Using GIS (GIS를 사용한 재생에너지설비 최적 위치 설계에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Moon-Seon;Moon, Chae-Joo;Chang, Young-Hak;Kim, Young-Gon;Lee, Sook-Hee
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.357-368
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    • 2018
  • For well over 100 years, oil has enabled remote communities to generate electricity and enjoy the benefits of a consistent electrical supply. Relying solely on oil for electricity generation has left island and remote communities exposed to several risks and drawbacks. Oil-based electricity generation is often more expensive and subject to price volatility, which can result in the use of risky fuel hedging strategies. The residents of islands and remote communities express concern over the future impacts of climate change or insist on their opinions for the corresponding action with reduction of carbon emissions. These risks and drawbacks can be overcomed with continuing cost reductions in solar, wind, and energy storage technologies by maker. Reducing costs is not always a straightforward process, relying on more diversely and renewably arranged renewable energy sources led to reduced local construction cost in every situation reviewed in this study. In this paper, a convenient and simple design solution which will facilitate the optimum location and transmission route of renewable energy facility using GIS(Geographic Information System) is proposed. The suggested solutions exercised to the case of geomoon island using GIS and identified by local site survey.

Performance Analysis of Trading Strategy using Gradient Boosting Machine Learning and Genetic Algorithm

  • Jang, Phil-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.27 no.11
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    • pp.147-155
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    • 2022
  • In this study, we developed a system to dynamically balance a daily stock portfolio and performed trading simulations using gradient boosting and genetic algorithms. We collected various stock market data from stocks listed on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets, including investor-specific transaction data. Subsequently, we indexed the data as a preprocessing step, and used feature engineering to modify and generate variables for training. First, we experimentally compared the performance of three popular gradient boosting algorithms in terms of accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score, including XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost. Based on the results, in a second experiment, we used a LightGBM model trained on the collected data along with genetic algorithms to predict and select stocks with a high daily probability of profit. We also conducted simulations of trading during the period of the testing data to analyze the performance of the proposed approach compared with the KOSPI and KOSDAQ indices in terms of the CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate), MDD (Maximum Draw Down), Sharpe ratio, and volatility. The results showed that the proposed strategies outperformed those employed by the Korean stock market in terms of all performance metrics. Moreover, our proposed LightGBM model with a genetic algorithm exhibited competitive performance in predicting stock price movements.

A Study on the Carbon Taxation Method Using the Real Business Cycle Model (실물적 경기변동모형을 이용한 탄소세 부과방식에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, In-sup;Jung, Yong-gook
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.67-104
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, we compare the spread effects of the carbon tax imposition method using the real business cycle model considering the productivity and energy price shocks. Scenario 1 sets the carbon tax rate that encourages the representative firm to maintain a constant $CO_2$ reduction ratio in accordance with its green house gas reduction targets for each period. Scenario 2 sets the method of imposing the steady state value of the carbon tax rate of Scenario 1 during the analysis period. The impulse response analysis shows that the responses of $CO_2$ emissions to external shocks are relatively sensitive in scenario 2. And simulation results show that the cost of $CO_2$ abatement is more volatile in scenario 1, and $CO_2$ emissions and $CO_2$ stock are more volatile in scenario 2. In particular, the percentage changes in volatility between the two scenarios of $CO_2$ emissions and $CO_2$ stock increase as the green house gas reduction target is harder. When the green house gas reduction target is 60% and over, the percentage changes(absolute value) between the two scenarios exceed the percentage change(absolute value) of the $CO_2$ reduction cost between them.

Trend/Cycle Decomposition Using DSGE Models (DSGE 모형을 이용한 추세와 경기순환변동분의 분해)

  • Hwang, Youngjin
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.117-156
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    • 2012
  • This paper decomposes and estimates trend/cyclical components of some key macro variables-GDP, inflation, and interest rate, using a simple DSGE model along with flexible trend specification. The extracted cyclical components of output and interest rate are similar to HP-filtered counterparts, despite some differences in persistence and volatility, while inflation resembles that from BK filtering. This implies that the usual practice of applying a single filtering method to the data of interest may be problematic. When the baseline model is extended to incorporate consumption habit and price indexation, habit turns out to be important in explaining the persistence of business cycles. Comparison of several alternative models shows that the usual practice of estimation of DSGE model using filtered data leads to biased results. Finally, various sensitivity analyses illustrate that (1) allowing for correlation between structural cyclical shocks and trend shocks and (2) including irregular components (in inflation rate) may deliver interesting/important implication for gap estimates.

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